# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/21 "2024-08-06T21:56:04Z")
I am sincerely asking _how_ Trump can win. We knew how when Biden was the candidate: Biden was checked out and down in the polls. Trump was _probably_ going to win. _Maybe_ the polls were wrong and Biden could barely win. But Biden wasn’t doing anything to change the dynamic. Then came the debate, and he was _definitely_ going to lose. So, now that none of that is the case, I think it’s fair to ask how Trump can win. If Trump were still up in the polls and the Harris campaign were having trouble getting the engine started, I wouldn’t be asking this question. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/22 "2024-08-06T21:57:02Z")
> [@Dogginit](#): > > Wasn’t but a couple days after Trump’s NY conviction was announced that the banners disappeared This is what gives me hope. Even at this late date, there’s still a few votes slipping away from him. Every day the Democrats keep the pressure on him adds a few more to that total. Don’t be that guy who celebrates before crossing the finish line and gets passed by the guy in second place. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/23 "2024-08-06T21:57:46Z")
Cenk Uygur of the Young Turks put out a video today saying that, now that Harris has picked Walz, she was definitely going to win. He was overjoyed. So you are not alone in that sentiment. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/24 "2024-08-06T22:00:58Z")
Voters love confidence. Kamala needs to go about publicly guaranteeing victory every chance she gets. It will get under Trump’s skin and enrage him even more into worse and worse comments. But anyhow, back to the OP, the only way Trump can win is to do blatant vote rigging nationwide at this point, and he can’t. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/25 "2024-08-06T22:01:08Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > It’s basically game over at this point. Trump is headed for total defeat, perhaps a 400-electoral-vote landslide wipeout. [“Because of shifting demographics there might never be another Republican president in this country.”](https://youtu.be/SHG0ezLiVGc?si=KdPokQOTWtWki7NV) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/26 "2024-08-06T22:01:21Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I am sincerely asking _how_ Trump can win. Well then I refer you back to my first response: over confidence and complacency. Other means would be some kind of massive screw-up by the Democrats. Like a really bad open mike gaffe. Or video of some criminal activity. I suppose Trump could also completely change his whole shtick. Unlikely, but maybe possible? ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/27 "2024-08-06T22:02:37Z")
Hold on to that good feeling but this is FAR from over. Complacency will kill us. How can he win? A combination of 1) the inherent electoral college advantage to republicans, 2) voter suppression, and 3) cheating (election deniers have been elected as vote certifiers in numerous battleground regions). This needs to be a blowout. Vote as if we’re 20 points behind. Vote as if our lives depend on it. Because they do. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/28 "2024-08-06T22:08:22Z")
By this point, Trump’s best hope may be to agree (behind the scenes) to drop out of the race for “health reasons” in return for Kamala going FBI-lenient on him after she wins the presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/29 "2024-08-06T22:10:33Z")
I think you are right. I don’t see those things happening at this point. One big thing in our favor is, ironically, the late but very solid start. I think the Clinton campaign had a bit less enthusiasm than Harris’s (hard to measure) and was flagging a bit at the end, whereas Trump was accelerating until the finish. ---
**Author:** ![bobsmom101](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobsmom101/32/2867_2.png) [@bobsmom101](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobsmom101)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/30 "2024-08-06T22:12:10Z")
> [@Kelby2](#): > > What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden [snip snip]tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE,” I.e. “Can’t we go back to the good old days?” You can almost hear the plaintive whine. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/31 "2024-08-06T22:12:26Z")
Actually, Anthony Scaramucci, Trump’s former communications man, was something just like this in a video a couple days ago. He suggested that Trump might drop out if he can get a deal not to go to prison from the various authorities. This is where the flop sweat cycle is important. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/32 "2024-08-06T22:13:07Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > From 2020 he should have learned that it is not actually that easy to do. But he has installed cronies in a variety of state offices where they can pull shenanigans similar to the fake electors plot. This concerns me quite a bit, in fact. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/33 "2024-08-06T22:14:28Z")
I agree that we need to put a stake through its heart and garlic in its mouth so that they just won’t have the lifeforce to try to rig it after it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/34 "2024-08-06T22:19:07Z")
There could be any number of events - stock market plunge, Mideast/Ukraine/China - stuff way out of Kamala’s control, but enough to convince the no-nothings that “this happened on the Dems’ watch. We need a strongman like TFG to fix it!” Utter BS, but unknowns can be scary. I agree with all who have said the top Dems oughta be cancelling all vacation between now and November. Pedal to the metal - all hands on deck! ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/35 "2024-08-06T22:22:39Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t see those things happening at this I rate them “highly unlikely” as well, but highly unlikely has been the theme for this last whole month. I mean, if on July 4th, I’d offered you a bet that Trump would narrowly avoid assassination, then Biden would drop out, then Harris would surge with massive enthusiasm and record fund raising, and then she’d pick a VP with serious cross-demographic appeal, what odds would you have given me? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/36 "2024-08-06T22:25:50Z")
Right, I agree that some sort of untoward, chaos-causing event could yet again change the dynamics of the race. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/37 "2024-08-06T22:25:59Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > @Aeschines, never change. Our very own Professor Pangloss. What can happen is that a bunch of ill informed or misinformed voters beleive the Fox News Propaganda that the Economy is in shambles, and crime is overwhelming due to Biden’s open border policy, can decide that change in necessary and Trump is what is needed. If we lived in a rational world Trump wouldn’t stand a chance, but as it is, the polls show a very tight race. Harris’ nomination injected some very much needed enthusiasm in a dejected Democratic base, but its no guarantee. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/38 "2024-08-06T22:26:42Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > > [@Kelby2](#): > > > > “What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE,” > > I honestly had to check because I didn’t believe it was real. It is. Yikes. He really is losing it. The Orange Felon is seeing his poll numbers falling and the prospect of prison looming. **Of course** he’s becoming unhinged – think Hitler in his final days in the bunker. I’m sure there will be lots more desperate lunacy to come if Harris-Walz starts dominating. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/39 "2024-08-06T22:27:29Z")
Simple math. He can win if he can get a few more people to come out and vote for him in a few key states. Or something happens to keep certain demographics from coming out for Harris. It’s still very close and will remain very close until the end. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2024, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/40 "2024-08-06T22:31:30Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Our very own Professor Pangloss. In my defense, I do not believe that this is the best of all possible worlds. 😁 > [@](#): > > What can happen is that a bunch of ill informed or misinformed voters beleive the Fox News Propaganda that the Economy is in shambles, and crime is overwhelming due to Biden’s open border policy, can decide that change in necessary and Trump is what is needed. But this is the starting point from which Harris has sprinted. Can Trump and Fox cause this message to penetrate further at this juncture? > [@](#): > > If we lived in a rational world Trump wouldn’t stand a chance, but as it is, the polls show a very tight race. Harris’ nomination injected some very much needed enthusiasm in a dejected Democratic base, but its no guarantee. This is, if I interpret correctly, the “Trump limps over the finish line with current momentum” scenario. I don’t find it completely implausible. I just wonder if there is any other plausible scenario at this point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=3)