# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/461 "2024-08-12T22:10:30Z")
> [@mozchron](#): > > The worst thing we can do is be complacent. I’ve responded to this line about fifty times at this point! 😭 ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/462 "2024-08-12T22:12:37Z")
She may be leading in a lot of polls, but in most of them the lead looks like right around MoE. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/463 "2024-08-12T22:15:49Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t think the polls justify calling it a “coin flip” at this point. The recent swing state polling is still within the margin of error, unless I’ve missed something. edit: sniped by @eschereal! I’ll add that even removing MOE as a consideration, the average polling leads would give her just enough electoral votes to win with no room for error. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/464 "2024-08-12T22:15:59Z")
The aggregators have her up, etc. I am not counting on anything, since the untoward events factor will not be gone until after election day. But it’s not currently a statistical tie, and in terms of vectors, it’s Harris rising, Trump plummeting. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/465 "2024-08-12T22:17:47Z")
Let’s just say we have reason to be cautiously optimistic at this point in time. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/466 "2024-08-12T22:18:49Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I understand things look really shitty for the DJT campaign at this point but I think there are a lot of people getting out over their skis here regarding Trump losing. There is still a lot of time left and any number of things could pop up to derail Harris and cause her to tank. I would agree with this, DJT is running a garbage campaign, but if he keeps chipping away at the right swing states, and she fails to maintain the surge, things could flip. Though I would push back against all the 2016 fear-mongering. We can’t dwell on that forever, nor we’re saying that Dems can never be excited about a candidate or about winning ever again. Yes don’t get complacent, but let people be excited and joyful, it’s hard to win a race without that energy. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/467 "2024-08-12T22:18:57Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The recent swing state polling is still within the margin of error, unless I’ve missed something. One problem with saying this is that the margin of error is big enough that a huge amount of polling can be ignored or invalidated in this way. Let me put it this way: I sure didn’t feel that Biden was going to win, even though most (all?) of the relevant polls were within the margin of error. Also, I have seen some individual polls for swing states in which Harris was outside the margin of error, but I’m not prepared to cite. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/468 "2024-08-12T22:20:15Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I would agree with this, DJT is running a garbage campaign, but if he keeps chipping away at the right swing states, and she fails to maintain the surge, things could flip. Is he “chipping away” at them now, however? Harris is up in polling of most swing states, currently. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/469 "2024-08-12T22:23:28Z")
As a scientist, all I can say is Never Rely On Your Feelings. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/470 "2024-08-12T22:26:22Z")
As a writer, all I can say is, _Scroll up._ ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/471 "2024-08-12T22:33:59Z")
I think he is done. My assumption with Biden was his voters would have come home when push came to shove. There was a lack of enthusiasm for his re-election because of his age. I think the quote he often used about “compare me to the alternative, not the almighty” would have hit home when it mattered and people understood the alternative really is Trump. You see with a switch how that’s completely swung the enthusiasm pendulum around. Harris hasn’t really said anything new about what her policy differences would be, and conservatives are complaining she is being treated in the media like an insurgent rather than the incumbent vice president (see the border czar stuff which falls along the line of “you’re in office right now and aren’t doing anything to secure the border”). But guess what, people really dislike Trump and what his political project represents and more importantly now what it spawned. Non-MAGA republicans are losing primaries and being replaced by lunatics. Moderates turned out for Biden in 2020, stopped the hyped up impending red wave in 2022, and I think will turn out for Harris in November. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/472 "2024-08-12T23:35:28Z")
Good news and optimism are evil and must be rejected wholeheartedly! Otherwise you will get complacent and lose! Bad news only! Fear only! Despair only! That’s the only way to win! ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/473 "2024-08-12T23:39:34Z")
Campaigning in support of Captain Straw, are we? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/474 "2024-08-12T23:42:43Z")
I don’t think there’s a single thread on the internet with any sort of good news for Harris that does not have at least one person saying to ignore the news because it could make people complacent. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/475 "2024-08-12T23:45:03Z")
Indeed. It’s fatiguing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/476 "2024-08-12T23:45:52Z")
Okay, I didn’t have a cite earlier but here is a new poll in which Harris is beating Trump beyond the margin of error in Wisconsin and Michigan: > **[Poll: Harris Leading in WI 9%, MI 6%, PA 4%](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/12/2262638/-Poll-Harris-Leading-in-WI-9-MI-6-PA-4?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Yet more good polling data was released today from The Bullfinch Group for three swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The survey was taken August 8 through 11 and included 500 registered voters in... ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/477 "2024-08-12T23:46:07Z")
I am not saying ignore the news. I am advocating cautious optimism 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/478 "2024-08-12T23:51:03Z")
The last time I was this confident of a Democratic presidential victory was 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/479 "2024-08-12T23:53:28Z")
Yikes. 😳 ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/480 "2024-08-12T23:53:30Z")
> [@solost](#): > > I don’t think Trump was a coward for not finishing his speech. There could have been other actors, bombs planted, etc. It’s not cowardly by 21st century normie standards. But I think that the standards for a caudillo/strongman, who needs to keep focus on himself, are different. Morally, it was correct to have the crowd exit so authorities could check for bombs planted. I’m just saying that he didn’t act his part, and if he loses, that will be part of the explanation. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=25)