# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/481 "2024-08-12T23:54:48Z")
Regarding optimism, here’s a hypothetical scenario in which my current level of optimism would not be warranted: > [@my mind](#): > > Trump trounces Biden in the debate, and Biden drops out (as in the original timeline). Harris comes in and _looks good_ but not amazing. Her polling is promising, and after a couple of weeks, she is neck-and-neck with Trump. But Trump hasn’t missed a bit, and he is fighting back with vigor and a level of perspicacity and discipline that we have rarely seen from him. Harris chooses Walz, and Walz is good but not quite mind-blowing. Vance is slow out of the gate but begins to get his footing and attack effectively. In mid-August, Harris’s prospects are promising–it may even be fair to say that she has exceeded expectations–but it’s still anybody’s race. I think this is actually more realistic than what’s actually happened! And yeah, if I were saying, “Harris is definitely going to win!” just because she seemed to be _catching up_, then I think some of the finger-wagging would be more appropriate. But that ain’t it. Instead, she’s surging and Trump is drowning. She’s killing it. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/482 "2024-08-12T23:58:15Z")
Welcome to the thread! 🤣 I wouldn’t say I was “confidant” in 2016. I simply took it as a truism, based on everything I was seeing in the media, that Hillary was going to win. I am much more skeptical now. I think Harris is in a much, much different position. Ceteris paribus, she is going to win. But I’m not counting on the ceteris paribus, if that makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/483 "2024-08-13T00:00:15Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Instead, she’s surging and Trump is drowning. She’s killing it. Literally. I hope Trump doesn’t die before the election. Any candidate, any old sack of dog turds will do better than Trump is doing right now. If Trump’s curse is to be a political Sisyphus who always runs and always loses, I hope the son of a bitch lives forever. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/484 "2024-08-13T00:08:12Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Ceteris paribus, she is going to win. But I’m not counting on the ceteris paribus, if that makes sense. It makes total sense. Harris shook up the race because swing/uncertain voters’s ideas about her were not glued down the way opinions about Biden were and are. But I think the voters in the middle (14 percent by some measures) and the voters vacillating between Harris, Stein, and West (maybe 3 percent?) are still not sure what they think about Harris-Walz. So there will be some movement back and forth between now and November. As to where we are now, the polls say to me – tie. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/485 "2024-08-13T00:10:50Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Harris is beating Trump beyond the margin of error in Wisconsin and Michigan I say keep the foot on the gas until these are +20% leads. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/486 "2024-08-13T00:11:40Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I say keep the foot on the gas until these are +20% leads. I say keep the foot down until November 6. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/487 "2024-08-13T00:15:12Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > If Trump’s curse is to be a political Sisyphus who always runs and always loses, I hope the son of a bitch lives forever. Absolutely. He will be a millstone around the neck of the GOP until he is dead, and only then will they _start_ being able to distance themselves from him and his unending stream of logorrhea. I am praying he lives to 120. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/488 "2024-08-13T00:16:24Z")
+9 is already “FATALITY,” as they say in Mortal Kombat, but yes, I wouldn’t mind a few 15s and 20s. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/489 "2024-08-13T00:37:30Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Anything they say just bounces back and hurts Trump worse. Fine, Walz misspoke a couple times about the finer details of his military record. And he shook his wife’s hand instead of dry-humping her on stage! _Buh-uht_ Trump was an undisputed draft dodger and has an undisputedly hostie and transactional relationship with his gold-digging Eurotrash “wife.” Etc. And I haven’t seen them land a damn thing on Harris yet. With John Kerry, they had a lot of time for their Swift Boat attacks to work and they don’t have nearly the same amount of time for it to work on Walz. The mud they’re slinging doesn’t appear to be sticking and they’re going to have to scramble in the hopes of finding something, anything, that will stick to Walz between now and November. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/490 "2024-08-13T00:46:37Z")
Yes, and that’s only the VP candidate anyway. But I can understand their desire to smear him, since he’s totally kicking their ass! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/491 "2024-08-13T01:00:57Z")
Let’s talk when the 538 running AVERAGE for WI, MI, and PA — within each of the three — is at least 9%. Not just one poll. (Right now, they’re 2, 3, and 1). Until then, yes — a coin toss. Really. (I love all your posts — well written, upbeat, got me through some hard times a couple months ago — but let’s not spread mistaken ideas about polling). ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/492 "2024-08-13T01:06:02Z")
> [@mozchron](#): > > They certainly do. And we have 3 months to go. Anything can happen here. > > The worst thing we can do is be complacent. I don’t think anyone here is being complacent. BUT I do see some folks being cocky about winning and it is way way way too early for that. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/493 "2024-08-13T01:07:56Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > (I love all your posts — well written, upbeat, got me through some hard times a couple months ago — but let’s not spread mistaken ideas about polling). Well, thank you. I wasn’t trying to present mistaken information. I just get frustrated when people say “it’s a tie” when the aggregators themselves are not calling it a tie, and saying “it’s all in the margin of error” when that’s no longer the case. Now I think it’s fine to think/say the following: - The polls do not literally show a tie, but I’m going to treat them as a tie for now so as not to get my expectations up too high. (This is how I interpreted your own assertion, btw.) - The aggregators give Harris a small lead, but I’m going to (see above). - The aggregators give Harris a small lead, but I disagree or distrust the data because (reasons go here). But just to blithely state, “It’s a tie,” as though that’s a fact is not helpful, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/494 "2024-08-13T01:12:05Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Good news and optimism are evil and must be rejected wholeheartedly! Otherwise you will get complacent and lose! > > Bad news only! Fear only! Despair only! That’s the only way to win! No one here is saying this. Trump and his cronies are not above doing all manner of evil to screw over Harris. I am not fearful or filled with despair but I don’t trust those fuckers or their allies in the media. Momentum can shift and lies can take hold and poison the race. Look up Chris LaCivita. The man is a master of dirty tricks and is running the Trump campaign. Hope and positive rhetoric can go a long way so I would say the Harris campaign is on the right track but we are nowhere near the finish line yet. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/495 "2024-08-13T01:17:23Z")
Whereas I am advocating vicious and maybe even ridiculous overkill to the point of being able to look back after the election and saying “Gosh and golly, I _almost_ feel slightly guilty. Oh, well-Time to feed the ocelot.” ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/496 "2024-08-13T01:18:17Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > - The polls do not literally show a tie, but I’m going to treat them as a tie for now so as not to get my expectations up too high. The polls show a tie if you allow for a small shy Trumper effect as was seen in 2016 and 2020. Also, state level polling has a bigger mean error than national polling. That’s why I see a current tie, but it is fair to see it otherwise. One thing I am more sure of — trying really, really hard does not win elections. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/497 "2024-08-13T01:19:27Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > All the 2024 trump signs I have seen have sported the tagline “Take America back”. I love it, as it plays wonderfully well against the Harris chant of “We’re not going back!” ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/498 "2024-08-13T01:20:22Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One thing I am more sure of — trying really, really hard does not win elections. Better to say trying really hard is not sufficient to win elections. But it does help. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/499 "2024-08-13T01:23:59Z")
> [@GailForce](#): > > and though most of his cult haven’t committed any felonies, and have no intentions of committing any, Well, “most” yes, but [https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0#:~:text=Approximately%20718%20individuals%20have%20pleaded,have%20pleaded%20guilty%20to%20misdemeanors](https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0#:~:text=Approximately%20718%20individuals%20have%20pleaded,have%20pleaded%20guilty%20to%20misdemeanors). - _Approximately **718** individuals have pleaded guilty to a variety of federal charges, many of whom faced or will face incarceration at sentencing._ - - Approximately **213** have pleaded guilty to felonies. Another **505** have pleaded guilty to misdemeanors.\* - - A total of **89** of those who have pleaded guilty to felonies have pleaded to federal charges of assaulting law enforcement officers. Approximately **41** additional defendants have pleaded guilty to feloniously obstructing, impeding, or interfering with a law enforcement officer during a civil disorder. Of these **130** defendants, **116** have now been sentenced to prison terms of up to **151** months.\* - - **Four** of those who have pleaded guilty to felonies have pleaded guilty to the federal charge of seditious conspiracy.\* _ **Trials:** _ \*\* **139** individuals have been found guilty at contested trials, including 3 who were found guilty in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia. Another **32** individuals have been convicted following an agreed-upon set of facts. **76** of these **171** defendants were found guilty of assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers and/or obstructing officers during a civil disorder, which are felony offenses, including one who has been sentenced to more than 14 years in prison.\* and- [https://www.axios.com/2024/03/07/trump-associates-prison-sentence-crimes-list](https://www.axios.com/2024/03/07/trump-associates-prison-sentence-crimes-list) No less than EIGHT trump associates have been sentenced to prison. and then- [https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-trumps-orbit-have-faced-criminal-charges-2023-02-16/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/many-trumps-orbit-have-faced-criminal-charges-2023-02-16/) Remember- “every accusation is a confession”- and “Biden crime family”? So I will accept “most” haven’t committed any felonies, but I think we can state- _Many_ have committed _many_ felonies. You know altho I despise trump, I dont see any point in name calling, I just use- \*trump" > [@eschereal](#): > > She may be leading in a lot of polls, but in most of them the lead looks like right around MoE. Well, Biden was also always within the MoE, but on the lower end of the MoE. It is _promising_ to see Harris on the high end. > [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > The last time I was this confident of a Democratic presidential victory was 2016. Oh, I was confident here- Lyndon Baines Johnson over Barry Goldwater (1964) and Bill Clinton. Not since then. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/500 "2024-08-13T01:25:15Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Better to say trying really hard is not sufficient to win elections. But it does help. Trump only won when he was outspent 2-1. TV ads can easily backfire. A certain level of effort is needed to get a candidacy to be taken seriously, and Harris is already there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=26)