# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![MulderMuffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldermuffin/32/2862_2.png) [@MulderMuffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MulderMuffin)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/541 "2024-08-13T14:36:58Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > This is a real concern. I don’t think it will be an FBI ratfuck op this time around, but my there sure are a lot of bad actors worldwide who are well-positioned to cook some surprises this time around. I do think we should all expect some very concerning events this october. With the alleged Iran hack of both trump’s and Biden’s campaigns (yes, Biden, not Harris, and it’s being reported that the Biden staffers didn’t fall for the phishing attempt so no information was leaked there) I can imagine some damaging information surfacing against the Harris campaign that purports to be from the hack. Doesn’t even have to be true, just has to dominate the headlines for a few days and it could depress turnout. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/542 "2024-08-13T15:13:12Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > But assuming Trump is cooked 90 days out from the election is a very 2016 thing to do, and it’s important to avoid that. His base is smaller than that, but still fanatically single-minded, this is the one advantage he has. Certainly wouldn’t assume. 😺 The big difference is that Trump was ascendant in 2016 and got just high enough to win on election day. This year, he’s crashing and burning–but somehow might pull out of the stall. Fingers uncrossed. And that’s why I phrased the OP title as I did. Can LaCivita and his goblins come up with the max sneakiest, most deadliest, ultra-super-brilliantest attack in the Universe to derail Harris-Walz at this stage and return the God-Emperor, Elector of Mar-a-Lago, and Defender of Italian Virginity to the White House? Umm, maybe. As I said above, the one thing I’m not ruling out is an international event that creates true chaos. I don’t automatically assume (there’s that word again), however, that even that will redound to Trump’s benefit. It could help make Biden and Harris look strong in a crisis. Rather more likely, I think, is a total implosion. You already see Republicans denouncing Trump and endorsing Harris. Imagine something like that times 10, 20, 100. It could happen. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/543 "2024-08-13T15:13:59Z")
Yes, if you start a thread like that, it could be an interesting philosophical discussion. Let me know if you do, thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/544 "2024-08-13T15:17:20Z")
“Every person deserves respect.” Maybe Trump should see this clip. He never learned that lesson. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/545 "2024-08-13T15:27:18Z")
We’ve already had an August surprise with Putin and Biden doing the prisoner swap. I get it. We’re so traumatized by Trump having won so many battles over the years that he shouldn’t have won, absolutely didn’t deserve to win, that we assume that, if a _thing_ is going to happen, then that _thing_ is always to Trump’s benefit. We’re assuming here that any October surprise will automatically go to Trump. Any untoward event will automatically benefit Trump. But _things_ can also benefit Harris! And thus far, they have: the prisoner swap, the hack. There also seems to be an assumption that Harris will be caught flat-footed like Clinton if any _thing_ should happen. Harris was a prosecutor and state attorney general. She knows Donald Trump’s type and is hardly some passive pollyanna. You don’t think she and her team are gaming out anything and everything the fascists can try to pull? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/546 "2024-08-13T15:29:51Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > You have to understand, this is a cheerleading thread. It became easier for me in these kinds of threads when I just let go and accepted that. You let go at some point? 🤣 (Just kidding, I love ya!) Joking aside, do you watch the YouTube political channels? _That’s_ cheerleading. Everything Trump says or does is a DISASTER–the other half of the headlines are TRUMP ENDS CAMPAIGN WITH. And so on. I am very mild and extremely rational in comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Rangerdanger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/67e7ee/32.png) [@Rangerdanger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rangerdanger)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/547 "2024-08-13T15:30:27Z")
I haven’t read any of this thread, but a pickup truck in Idaho answered the OP’s question. It had several TRump stickers and a couple of Oakland Raiders ones. S’nuff said. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/548 "2024-08-13T15:30:39Z")
While I’m optimistic, Donald can still win. We’re not out of the woods yet. I can only hope that Trump’s chances continue to decline, but the Democrats need to continue pushing and Trump needs to continue doing whatever it is he’s doing. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/549 "2024-08-13T15:36:15Z")
> [@Rangerdanger](#): > > I haven’t read any of this thread, but a pickup truck in Idaho answered the OP’s question. Idaho’s 4 four electoral votes are going to Trump? We’re doomed! ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/550 "2024-08-13T15:37:42Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > You don’t think she and her team are gaming out anything and everything the fascists can try to pull? No, I don’t for two reasons: it is not possible to predict what will happen between now and Election Day; and Americans are morons who believe ugly lies more easily than difficult truths. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/551 "2024-08-13T15:52:58Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > There also seems to be an assumption that Harris will be caught flat-footed like Clinton if any _thing_ should happen. Harris was a prosecutor and state attorney general. She knows Donald Trump’s type and is hardly some passive pollyanna. You don’t think she and her team are gaming out anything and everything the fascists can try to pull? This is the one thing that gives me cautious hope more than anything else. Clinton assumed she was going to win, didn’t campaign hard enough in places she assumed were safe, snd got caught like a deer in the headlights at the end, allowing Trump to skate past. I do not see Harris or her campaign making those mistakes. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/552 "2024-08-13T16:06:43Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Idaho’s 4 four electoral votes are going to Trump? We’re doomed! Idaho did cast its 4 electoral votes for a Democrat … in, let me see … oh, when Kamala Harris was two weeks old. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/553 "2024-08-13T16:22:37Z")
> [@mozchron](#): > > Clinton assumed she was going to win, didn’t campaign hard enough in places she assumed were safe, snd got caught like a deer in the headlights at the end, allowing Trump to skate past. Yes, Harris started from behind and had to work to catch up then get past Trump (and is now barely ahead). Clinton started ahead of Trump and allowed him to get past her. If you’re comparing to 2016, Trump would be more like Clinton by that measure. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/554 "2024-08-13T16:27:23Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Yes, Harris started from behind and had to work to catch up then get past Trump (and is now barely ahead). > > Clinton started ahead of Trump and allowed him to get past her. > > If you’re comparing to 2016, Trump would be more like Clinton by that measure. I semi-agree with this 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/555 "2024-08-13T17:37:20Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I don’t think it will be an FBI ratfuck op this time around, but my there sure are a lot of bad actors worldwide who are well-positioned to cook some surprises this time around. I do think we should all expect some very concerning events this october. An October surprise doesn’t have to be caused by Republican trickery or Russian hacking…it can also be self-inflicted by the Dems themselves. For example: The progressive wing of the party is already heckling Harris about Gaza. There will be more loud and noisy demonstrations, and maybe even violence, perhaps at the Dem convention next week, or next month as students return to campuses. It’s easy to imagine a bunch of screaming demonstrators, all dressed in kaffiahs and waving Palestinian flags, surrounding Kamila on stage. Kamilla turns to speak with them, trying to calm them down. Somebody takes a picture, catching Kamilla in a pose with her hand raised…(similar to the famous Trump assassination photo.) Then the Republicans produce a huge TV campaign, with a split screen: one side showing the fierce and strong Trump with his bloody ear, his fist raised proudly in front of the flag. While the other side of the screen shows Kamilla… proudly smiling with her hand raised, looking like she is saluting the Palestinian flag, while surrounded by a crowd of supporters dressed as Arabs, holding signs praising Hamas… ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/556 "2024-08-13T17:55:13Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > It’s easy to imagine a bunch of screaming demonstrators, all dressed in kaffiahs and waving Palestinian flags, surrounding Kamila on stage. It’s very unlikely that this would happen. I don’t foresee a situation in which protesters are going to make it inside of the United Center, much less make it to the stage. I _am_ concerned about raucous, potentially violent protests next week, especially as I’ll be working in downtown Chicago next week. But, those protests aren’t going to make it into the convention itself. Edit: > [@chappachula](#): > > Kamila > [@chappachula](#): > > Kamilla **Kamala** ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/557 "2024-08-13T18:36:39Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Kamala thanks… (well, ya made me feel stupid, but I deserved it) 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/558 "2024-08-13T18:40:25Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > thanks… > (well, ya made me feel stupid, but I deserved it) 🙂 Nothing to feel ashamed about–Trump pronounced it the same way! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/559 "2024-08-13T19:07:10Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Moreover, the Republican Party can’t let him just go down in flames if only for the sake of the down ballot races. Nope. The RNC is now totally a trump institution, dedicated to paying his expenses and seeing that he wins. trump doesnt give a crap about down ballot races. he cares about one race and one race only, hoping to keep his ass out of prison. > [@Czarcasm](#): > > All the people that told us to sit back and relax the last time Trump got elected, all the ones that told us it was in the bag Like who? > [@Toxylon](#): > > The Donald is Done mentality on display in this thread is what frightens me to no end. Naw, we are saying “guarded optimism” for Harris winning. > [@Atamasama](#): > > Clinton started ahead of Trump and allowed him to get past her. There will be no Comey memo this time around, nor will there be a large minority of her own party spreading hate. So, that is two out of three things that 538/Silver said lost Clinton the election. Poor campaign strategy was the third. I doubt that this will occur this year. ---
**Author:** ![Gordon\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3da27b/32.png) [@Gordon\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gordon_G)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2024, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/560 "2024-08-13T19:33:15Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Trump can cheat. Well, at least he can try. From 2020 he should have learned that it is not actually that easy to do. But he has installed cronies in a variety of state offices where they can pull shenanigans similar to the fake electors plot. > > Trump can (and will) call upon his buddy Putin for some reinforcement from Russian trolls who will spread disinformation all over social media. > > Trump can keep foaming at the mouth with anger (which he seems to be doing a lot lately almost like he’s got a bug in his ear or something) and hope for some stochastic terrorism. If he manages to pull off Jan 6 2.0 except this time with guns, he will accomplish chaos for a few minutes until reinforcements arrive and wipe out the Gravy SEALs. Cheating is my big fear. The GOP is _already_ cheating and there will be more cheating shenanigans to follow. If corrupt election officials are allowed to do their planned dirt (and there may be nothing to stop them) Georgia and Arizona will fall to Trump whatever the vote-count. And not only are Putin and other obvious villains eager to help Trump, some say that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chief, is deliberately helping Trump by keeping interest rates high and thereby forcing recession and falling asset prices. There is also a specific danger in Electoral College Arithmetic. If the Rust Belt swingers all go to Harris but Trump wins the other swing states, Harris wins with 270 evs. (Trump wins on a 269-269 tie). BUT that 270 includes the single EV that Nebraska sets aside for Democratic Omaha. If Nebraska changes their law to award EVs all-or-none as other states do, Harris loses 269-269. Blue Maine is the other state which is not all-or-none, and it has one EV likely to go Red. IIUC Maine has vowed to reciprocate if Nebraska goes all-or-none. But times to deadlines may be running out. I worry that Nebraska will wait until the last minute, when it is too late for Maine to change. I think Maine should avoid this problem by switching to all-or-none NOW. (Anyway, according to the chart at 270towin, Omaha is less Blue than the rural Maine district is Red so tactically Maine should always switch.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=29)