# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/701 "2024-08-15T19:40:34Z")
Indeed so. Engaging at hubris is incredibly premature. Don’t slow down to take selfies with onlookers before crossing the finish line. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/702 "2024-08-15T19:46:48Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > But to bring it back to this thread about Trump, his supporters should be pessimistic right now. I was listening to Mark Levin yesterday. He’s normally unhinged, but especially so now. He was literally spitting mad. So, “pessimistic” puts in mildly. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/703 "2024-08-15T19:48:35Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Until Harris is polling above the margin of error in states totalling more than 270 points, I will remain cautiously optimistic. _Well above_, me thinks. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/704 "2024-08-15T20:00:24Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > If she is polling above the margin of error a week before the election I’ll be ecstatic. That really isn’t the standard, however. Sure, polling above the margin of error in all swing states is pretty definitive, but being positive in all or most swing states but within the margin of error can still be statistically quite impressive, since the chance that the candidate is actually _underwater_ in all of them is low. Further, there are correlations between the polling results of various states based on historical data, such that positive results among two or more make it less likely that all of these results are in error. The aggregators take all of these things into consideration–and a lot more. That doesn’t mean they are automatically correct, however. I’m just saying that a layperson saying, “I’ll feel positive when Harris is up 15% or more in all swing states” (an exaggeration, mind you), is just that: a layperson’s gut check. This applies to my own opinion as well, of course. > [@](#): > > If I was a Trump supporter… Well, I’d say I’d be worried, but honestly I don’t know what kind of information I’d be allowing myself to consume anyway, since I’m a Trump supporter, so I have no idea how I’d feel. I’m curious, too, about how they actually feel right now. I haven’t seen polling on that yet. If, however, we were to take the same personalities in this thread working from the same logic and imagine that we were all Trump supporters, I can guarantee that there would a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. The same people saying it’s a tie or a tossup (discounting Harris’s chances) would be extremely worried that Trump was going to lose. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/705 "2024-08-15T20:02:21Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > That really isn’t the standard, however. I’m talking about what it would take for _me_ to feel confident and not worry about it. So I’m telling you, that **is** the standard. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/706 "2024-08-15T20:08:26Z")
I get it. It’s a personal standard. But people reading this thread can get the impression that, if a bunch of smart Liberals think this way, then it must be true. I think the mood in this thread is well below that of professional Liberal political analysts and commentators. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/707 "2024-08-15T20:12:47Z")
@Atamasama … Yeah. trump and his wacky followers is a threat that really needs to be nuked from orbit to be sure. Anything less than total ridiculous overkill has too large a chance of turning out to be underkill. I’ll be breathing easier _after_ I see the total ridiculous overkill. And not before. Some of my desire for gross overkill is strategic. If trump _almost_ wins, the main lesson the Reactionary Wacko Traitors will take away was that RWT is a popular and potentially winning formula, but that aging rapidly seniling-out trump didn’t have quite enough left in the tank to deliver. So from now to 2028 they’ll be in a full court press to invent a newer, younger, more vigorous, more reactionary wacko to lead the MAGAty masses to the Promised Land. And we’ll be having these same kinds of discussions about the runaway RWTs 4 years hence. OTOH, if trump goes down in massive ignominy, as does any down-ballot candidate with particularly MAGAty credentials, the lesson the Right in general will take from that _may_ be that RWT / MAGA really is a bridge too far and them tacking back to e.g. 2010-style conservatism is more likely to lead to success in 2028. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/708 "2024-08-15T20:14:24Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think the mood in this thread is well below that of professional Liberal political analysts and commentators. I mean, if that’s the case, I can’t see that as anything but a _good_ thing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/709 "2024-08-15T20:18:35Z")
I agree with the nuke-from-orbit strategy. The thing is that massive enthusiasm–the Kamala-Walz joy–on our side is a very potent weapon against the fascists. It’s probably the best trajectory for the nuke to follow. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/710 "2024-08-15T20:23:26Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > I’ll be breathing easier _after_ I see the total ridiculous overkill. And not before. Given that Hillary was doing better than this in the polls in 2016, no relaxation here until Nate et al. give a 90% chance _and_ we’re too close to the election for events to play in (so like the day before the election). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/711 "2024-08-15T20:29:56Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > It’s possible to be optimistic, thrilled, eager, psyched up, overjoyed – AND to caution that this is far from over, and we all need to get out and vote… I agree with Aeschines that the optimism and joy is itself part of the power pushing the polls into positive p… p… territory. Be enthused, be confident, be cheery…_ **AND** _ work to GET OUT THE VOTE! (The “mood” in this thread, and with professional Liberal commentators, _is_ joyful. That’s our _hearts_ talking, and it’s real, and justified. But we can use our _heads_, too at the same time. Nothing “pessimistic” about understanding how polls work, what they’re telling us and not telling us, and allocating resources – our time, our money, our communications – based on this.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/712 "2024-08-15T20:36:56Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > since the chance that the candidate is actually _underwater_ in all of them is low. Nope. If one is wrong for a systemic sort of error then likely they all are. The polls are not separate dice rolls. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/713 "2024-08-15T20:42:41Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I agree with Aeschines that the optimism and joy is itself part of the power pushing the polls into positive p… p… territory. Interesting to reflect on the psychology of the moment here - getting to this point in the polls from where things were last month feels great and joyous. But getting to this same approx (or better) polling point in 2016 felt terrible because it was coming down from the other direction. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/714 "2024-08-15T20:48:45Z")
Answering the thread question, Harris can keep doing this: [Biden and Harris appear together](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-presidential-election-live-updates-rcna165966) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/715 "2024-08-15T20:50:32Z")
Sorry, I meant that if, say, two were high, and one was low, then it is less likely that the lower one is actually low. And vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/716 "2024-08-15T20:52:36Z")
Yeah? Biden got the deal done with Putin, and today a historic negotiation of drug prices was announced. One could be in worse company. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/717 "2024-08-15T20:54:53Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Answering the thread question, Harris can keep doing this: > > [Biden and Harris appear together](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-presidential-election-live-updates-rcna165966) Biden was unpopular (to the extent he was) simply because many feared he would lose to Trump. No one who is going to vote for Harris had any beef with Biden’s policies. Biden’s presidency has been an unqualified success, and I’m happy to see him campaigning with Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/718 "2024-08-15T20:55:59Z")
Exactly right. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/719 "2024-08-15T21:21:43Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Biden was unpopular (to the extent he was) simply because many feared he would lose to Trump. This only makes sense for people who were already committed to vote against Trump. They will not determine the election. [The Biden Approval Rolling Average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) is still close to the worst it has ever been, while Harris numbers [are the best since her 2021 honeymoon](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/). Biden is politically toxic, explaining why he had to drop out. > [@Procrustus](#): > > No one who is going to vote for Harris had any beef with Biden’s policies. If true, Harris might as well give up. But she is not giving up and is at least giving the impression of being more of a border hawk. Another policy change is tax on tips. Maybe she is sincere, maybe not, but she had to differentiate herself by more than just being younger. The only people who are going to like seeing Harris with Biden are already voting for her. P.S. My last sentence is not literally true, but damn close. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/720 "2024-08-15T21:24:30Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > But she is not giving up and is at least giving the impression of being more of a border hawk She and Biden both want a secure border. I’m not sure what “border hawk” is. Anyway, I’m not saying she can’t have fresh agenda, but only that Joe Biden is beloved and his occasional appearances with her can only help. ETA: Especially in PA, MI, and WI. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=37)