# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/721 "2024-08-15T21:40:32Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > She and Biden both want a secure border. I’m not sure what “border hawk” is. Her ads give the impression of being “tough” AKA hawkish. Check links from here: [Harris’ campaign advertisements portray tough-on-immigration stance](https://www.axios.com/2024/08/09/vp-harris-immigration-border-campaign-ads) > [@Procrustus](#): > > Anyway, I’m not saying she can’t have fresh agenda, but only that Joe Biden is beloved and his occasional appearances with her can only help. ETA: Especially in PA, MI, and WI. Biden’s approval - disapproval, at 538, is minus 18 percent. Trump is at minus 9 percent. If Biden is beloved, Trump is more beloved! Actually, neither is beloved by swing/uncertain voters. Also, Biden will make gaffes if he keeps appearing with Harris. That sure won’t help. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/722 "2024-08-15T21:55:04Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > > [@Aeschines](#): > > > > since the chance that the candidate is actually _underwater_ in all of them is low. > > Nope. > > If one is wrong for a systemic sort of error then likely they all are. > > The polls are not separate dice rolls. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Sorry, I meant that if, say, two were high, and one was low, then it is less likely that the lower one is actually low. And vice versa. @DSeid is correct. Systemic error doesn’t work the way you’re thinking. Your description is how independent errors work. If there’s an unknown systemic error, everything can be off in the same direction. Compare weighing squirmy toddlers. Each measured weight is going to have an error independent of the other toddlers’ errors. But if the scale is not level, each measurement will be off by a similar amount. This is the lesson Nate Silver taught us in 2016, but it’s hard to internalize. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/723 "2024-08-15T21:59:07Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > Interesting to reflect on the psychology of the moment here - getting to this point in the polls from where things were last month feels great and joyous. But getting to this same approx (or better) polling point in 2016 felt terrible because it was coming down from the other direction. So true!! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/724 "2024-08-15T22:15:38Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Biden’s approval - disapproval, at 538, is minus 18 percent. Trump is at minus 9 percent. If Biden is beloved, Trump is more beloved! I think it’s difficult to pick out the various factors. Is it policy? Age? Communication style (or lack thereof)? Perceived connection to perceived bad economy? Etc. I think that Biden has been a highly effective politician on policy and has demonstrated an exceptional ability to get things done despite GOP control of the House. But he has been a poor communicator and cheerleader for America. Plus, dude is old. > [@](#): > > Also, Biden will make gaffes if he keeps appearing with Harris. That sure won’t help. I don’t think Biden has made any significant gaffes, though there have been many times where he has been close to unable to speak at all. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2024, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/725 "2024-08-15T22:19:53Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > This is the lesson Nate Silver taught us in 2016, but it’s hard to internalize. All of it is very complicated, and I don’t pretend to be an actuary or statistician. Silver himself is OK. I don’t hold him in as high esteem as others do here. But I do consider his perspective to be a data point worth raising in discussions like this. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/726 "2024-08-16T00:05:16Z")
OK, just saw this. _Holy shit_, guys, take a look: > **[Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on tacos, music, and the future of America](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkwZ_A49hb8%2F)** > > Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, sit down for a conversation about their historic campaign. They talk taco rec... And they say Harris isn’t doing interviews? This is worth 100x a bullshit MSM interview. Some thoughts: - Walz is the best VP pick of the modern media era (1960~). He is extremely telegenic yet 100% real. - Harris and Walz have the best President-VP chemistry of the modern media era. Contrast that with Trump and Vance (horrendous). - Yes, this is propaganda, but if you can make propaganda that feels so real (because it actually is mostly real), you’re doing something right. - Compare the skill of this video to anything Trump is doing right now. - Harris has a really strong narrative of her life and how it relates to politics and present moment. Walz’s own story complements hers to perfection. If these guys lose to dogshit Trump and Vance, it will at least be an interesting story about how such a thing is even possible. Right now, they are doing _everything_ right. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/727 "2024-08-16T00:31:11Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Answering the thread question, Harris can keep doing this: I have no fucking idea of what your point is here. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The only people who are going to like seeing Harris with Biden are already voting for her. Is that your point- she should distance herself from Biden? That would be a terrible idea. > [@Aeschines](#): > > And they say Harris isn’t doing interviews? There is no “they”- it is the NYT. And this doesnt could for the NYT, they insist she has to give them an exclusive, or they will attack her. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/728 "2024-08-16T00:54:17Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > There is no “they”- it is the NYT. And this doesnt could for the NYT, they insist she has to give them an exclusive, or they will attack her. Yep. Idiots. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/729 "2024-08-16T01:14:21Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Is that your point- she should distance herself from Biden? That is my point. Biden is by some measures — I say most measures — the least popular first term president since polling began. This is from May, and it has not gotten better: [Fact Check: Multiple Polls Say Biden Is Least Popular US President in 70 Years?](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/joe-biden-least-popular-president/) Harris should not tear down a mentor swing voters mostly see as a doddering old man guilty of causing an inflation spurt. But almost any Democratic candidate not assured of victory in November needs to distance themselves from our extremely unpopular president. P.S. I’m not saying Harris should completely shun him. That would look cruel. Just keep it to a minimum. I actually think she is doing that already. P.P.S. Remember when Harris being less slightly popular than Biden was given as a reason for not making her the nominee? The main reason she was so unpopular was association with Joe Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/730 "2024-08-16T01:16:34Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Right now, they are doing _everything_ right. Thanks for the link, despite being in the wrong thread. 😉 I’m linking to it on Facebook to push to my right-wing friends. It really shows how they are regular people. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/731 "2024-08-16T01:43:42Z")
Well, he’s definitely working hard to lock in the military vote. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-XYNJJRNQBJGERNKZFNMBXO6M2U](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-XYNJJRNQBJGERNKZFNMBXO6M2U) > [@](#): > > Speaking at a pro-Israel event Thursday, Donald Trump said the Presidential Medal of Freedom is better than the Medal of Honor. The former is the highest honor given to civilians in the United States, awarded to those who have made contributions to the United States’ security or national interests, world peace or culture. The Medal of Honor, often referred to as the “Congressional Medal of Honor,” is awarded exclusively to members of the military for acts of valor beyond the call of duty. > > Trump said that the Presidential Medal of Freedom is “much better” because “everyone who gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers, they’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets, or they’re dead.” > > Trump said that Miriam Adelson, one of his donors, was fortunate to get the Medal of Freedom during his presidency because, unlike injured or deceased soldiers, she “gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman.” ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/732 "2024-08-16T01:56:11Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Well, he’s definitely working hard to lock in the military vote. > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-XYNJJRNQBJGERNKZFNMBXO6M2U](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/15/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-XYNJJRNQBJGERNKZFNMBXO6M2U) Wow. My immediate reaction is – bigger mistake even than picking Vance. Normally when Trump says something attention-getting and outrageous, I think that he must know what he is doing. But I find no way to spin this in a way that that would explain how he can win. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/733 "2024-08-16T02:01:14Z")
Yep, cool! I mean, it shows what Trump is up against at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/734 "2024-08-16T02:02:10Z")
That is _extremely_ on crack. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/735 "2024-08-16T02:04:41Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Normally when Trump says something attention-getting and outrageous, I think that he must know what he is doing. But I find no way to spin this in a way that that would explain how he can win. The depressing thing is that this is consistent with how he has disparaged the military for years. Yet, here we are. So I’m not sure how much it will hurt him, if at all. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/736 "2024-08-16T02:06:38Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Normally when Trump says something attention-getting and outrageous, I think that he must know what he is doing. But I find no way to spin this in a way that that would explain how he can win. Trump has been spitting on members of the Armed Forces of the United States for a long, long time. The earliest I remember is him insulting John McCain for getting shot down. His followers, many of whom claim to be patrotic pro-military types, are fine with it. I don’t know why insulting members of the military now would make any difference, but then maybe Trump Fatigue Syndrom is starting to take effect. Maybe people are just sick of Trump and what he got away with in 2015 isn’t going to work in 2024. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/737 "2024-08-16T02:25:36Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I don’t know why insulting members of the military now would make any difference, but then maybe Trump Fatigue Syndrom is starting to take effect. One can only hope. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/738 "2024-08-16T02:30:21Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > His followers, many of whom claim to be patrotic pro-military types, are fine with it. In politics, the less you plan to do about something, the more you must talk about it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/739 "2024-08-16T02:45:35Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Biden is by some measures — I say most measures — the least popular first term president since polling began. Not really, see they poll MAGAs too (almost half), and MAGAs will say Biden rates terrible, awful no good, 0 out of 10. Whereas honest Democrats with say he is doing the best he can with a recalcitrant congress- maybe a 7. This is purely a product of MAGA hate. It has nothing to do with reality. Note that Historians rate trump as the worst president _ever._ If you take a look at current approval polls, Biden is a couple points worse than trump. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Harris should not tear down a mentor swing voters mostly see as a doddering old man guilty of causing an inflation spurt. And no swing voters do not think that- MAGAs do, and of course Biden curbed inflation, trump caused it. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/740 "2024-08-16T02:53:24Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > The depressing thing is that this is consistent with how he has disparaged the military for years. Yet, here we are. So I’m not sure how much it will hurt him, if at all. This seems to me an actual new low. The “suckers and losers” thing was a private remark to Gen. John Kelly. I’m sure Trump said it, but he has repeatedly denied it. The statement about POW’s was a political put-down of John McCain. Or, at least, if inclined to forgive Trump, you could think of it that way. By contrast, I cannot see any excuse for dissing the Medal of Honor winners. I think his real intended point was to indirectly apologize to Miriam Adelson, a big GOP campaign contributor he gave the Presidential Medal of Freedom to but has [lately insulted](https://www.thedailybeast.com/manipulated-donald-trump-blows-up-billionaire-megadonor-miriam-adelsons-phone-with-angry-texts). He wanted to flatter her, and did. No one will see this as an excuse. I’m not saying Trump will lose millions of votes over this. But tens of thousands, yes. . [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=38)