# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/821 "2024-08-16T20:24:22Z")
Sure, I can hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/822 "2024-08-16T20:38:13Z")
Now that you mention it, yeah… he did (personally I much prefer Harris’s oratory to Obama’s… he always felt kinda fake and insubstantial to me, albeit skilled on the surface). ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/823 "2024-08-16T21:34:49Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I often find myself expecting/predicting that the worse outcome will occur. > … > And if I’m wrong about my prediction, I can be happy about the result. > … > So I tend to skew defeatist just to protect my mental health. The way I say that is > It’s better to be a pessimist. Either you get the satisfaction of being right, or something better than you expected happens. Either way you win! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/824 "2024-08-16T21:48:33Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > But to be fair, there’s criticism that you think Trump is employing a bad strategy, and criticism that Trump is not worth supporting anymore. And I think it’s the former, not the latter that they are displaying. > > It is notable that there is any criticism at all, sure, but this isn’t necessarily a sign that he’s losing followers. Oh, quite a few of them dislike Trump. Not enough to want to vote for Harris, but absolutely believe Trump should not be leading the party. Oddly enough, they all praise Trump’s policies, but some maintain that he is so unlikable that someone else should be running for POTUS. The odd thing is that Trump’s only policies are punish outsiders, insult the Libs, and anything else that will benefit Trump. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/825 "2024-08-16T21:52:42Z")
I suspect in that case by “trump’s policies” they really mean something about as sophisticated as “He’s an R. Therefore his actual polices are R-standard stuff. Which I prefer over that commie-pinko woke D-standard stuff.” These are the people who will vote for “[anyone at all] (R)” over “Jeebus Himself (D)”. So they justify to themselves that trump is just a noisy guy still doing the standard R stuff quietly. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/826 "2024-08-16T22:01:49Z")
Trump is gaining in the polls. It’s also important to remember that he historically does about 4% better on Election Day than he does in the polls. _ **Friday, August 16** : A second straight day of gains for Trump with some [mediocre](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-49-harris-48/) [polling](https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/08/16/trump-46-harris-45/) for Harris; her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.4 points from a peak of 3.1. It’s too early to say whether there’s been some turn in momentum or if this is just statistical noise and in any event, Harris will have a chance to refresh her momentum at the DNC next week, but the [vibes aren’t as good](https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-cant-meme-her-way-to) as they were a week ago_ > **[Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model)** > > All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/827 "2024-08-16T22:37:13Z")
A Twitter posting: > [@Mark Hamill](#): > > We can’t take a “Blue Wave” for granted! Ignore the polls & campaign like we’re 30 points behind. The stakes have never been higher. Tell everyone you know to tell everyone they know to go to [http://Iwillvote.com](https://t.co/nsvzNBXXKg) to make sure they’re registered. We are NOT going back!!! ---
**Author:** ![TheTooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/919ad9/32.png) [@TheTooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheTooth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/828 "2024-08-16T23:36:23Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Getting him ready for life in a cage? Smart, subtle, best move the Secret Service has made in a minute. And I mean a literal minute. True subtlety would be making it soundproof too. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/829 "2024-08-16T23:50:25Z")
Being from the Houston region, I see this thread as similar to people’s reactions to hurricane tracking. Some people see one computer model out of 50 maybe putting a storm within 200 miles 2 weeks out, and they start acting like the world is ending. Some people see a forecast track headed right for their beachside home and think that’s a great time to host a party. The sensible people? They prepare their kit before hurricane season and make their contingency plans in advance. And they wait until the forecast shows some reasonable confidence of a solid track to decide whether they’re in good position to ride it out or that it’s time to make good their escape. There’s been a lot of casting the sensible crowd as pessimistic in this thread rather than folks who are prepared no matter which way the storm goes - whether it veers away or lands right on top of them. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/830 "2024-08-17T00:20:57Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > There’s been a lot of casting the sensible crowd as pessimistic in this thread rather than folks who are prepared no matter which way the storm goes - whether it veers away or lands right on top of them. The analogy isn’t really parallel. The “sensible” people here aren’t really preparing for anything except perhaps the psychological devastation, which I would share, of a Trump win. We are not talking about preparing a move to Canada or something like that. So it really comes down to assessing the weather reports / political polling, etc., not preparing based thereon. If there were shelves I could stock or insurance I could buy or a safe house I could flee to that would alleviate the pain of a Trump win, I too would be “sensible” and do so. (Actually, I could probably find a way to move to Japan again, but I would rather stay here and fight than flee.) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/831 "2024-08-17T00:50:22Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Trump is gaining in the polls. Marginally. It is perhaps more reasonable to see it as the Harris rise leveling for a minute before another temporary bump with the convention, assuming no major riot … Here’s the thing though for those of us with _guarded_ optimism, well I’ll speak for myself. I am expecting it to go up and down some and just as I am hesitant to get very celebratory when it is still this close in polling and still this far from Election Day, I won’t wail about disaster when there is a dip. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/832 "2024-08-17T00:58:46Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > We are not talking about preparing a move to Canada or something like that. There were threads about that back in 2016. Anybody who wanted to do that already did. And there’s a current thread about arming yourself should he win. So, yeah, there are people preparing. Not in the desperate “I’m gonna move to another country” or “I’m gonna bunker up like a survivalist” way but in what they can do within their communities for themselves and for others and how to respond after. People don’t have to over-react like hormonal teenagers devastated after breaking up with their first crush like they just lost their forever soulmate 💓 💓 💓 nor in a such a visible way that it’s obvious to you. They can and are thinking and planning now. Some have been doing so for years already and have been in a state of readiness. Just like some of us don’t need to do a lot of obvious, visible hurricane prep because we took care of most of that several years ago. So, yes, cautiously optimistic for most but ready in case things take a bad turn. Just not melodramatic stuff like jumping straight to 400EVs or making plans to leave the country. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/833 "2024-08-17T01:02:14Z")
I don’t want to rain on your parade, but the Votemaster quotes recent polls showing actual ties in Mich. and Wisc. and Harris down by 8 points in Florida. [https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Aug16-10.html](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Aug16-10.html) ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/834 "2024-08-17T01:04:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Marginally. It’s all marginally, it’s a coin toss and people are acting like it’s a blowout. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/835 "2024-08-17T10:59:16Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > The upshot is…Harris could very easily lose Pennsylvania, based on current forecasts (it’s by far her weakest of the the three “blue wall” states). And, Nevada looks quite iffy. > > She — all of us — MUST prepare for this by focusing campaigning and get-out-the-vote efforts in at least two of the three states of AZ, NC, and GA. If time and money are limited, we need to pick the two states very soon (without entirely neglecting the third). A new Times/Siena poll seals the deal: the two states Harris should focus on – both of which she must win, if she loses Pennsylvania-- are **AZ and NC**. She’s polling really well in Arizona, and is slightly ahead in North Carolina. (She’s slighty behind in Nevada, and way behind in Georgia. What the hell, Georgia?). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/836 "2024-08-17T11:48:27Z")
The article on the poll is worth using up a gift link. [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/upshot/poll-harris-trump-sun-belt.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.Dk4.vTKx.ciq95gQ-V9tt&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/upshot/poll-harris-trump-sun-belt.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Dk4.vTKx.ciq95gQ-V9tt&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare) Of note she still has room to go to get to Biden 2020 levels in some target groups. Much better than Biden 2024 levels though! All put together as a group though is that all can be thought of as in play. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/837 "2024-08-17T11:59:17Z")
Right. And where I lurk (Breitbart), when called on this stuff they say “Look, another idiot who can’t understand what Trump really means.” For the faithful, Trump’s word salad will always be interpreted in the “right” way. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/838 "2024-08-17T12:04:07Z")
Makes sense! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/839 "2024-08-17T12:08:59Z")
I haven’t been to Breitbart in awhile, but the angry white dude _fucking stupid_ combined with stupid white dude _fucking angry_ in the comments was shocking in its intensity. (Actually, National Review comments are kinda the same thing, sadly…) ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/840 "2024-08-17T12:10:57Z")
Yes. I am routinely amazed at the things I see there. I don’t know what % of MAGA they represent, but it’s pretty reprehensible. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=43)