# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/861 "2024-08-17T19:08:09Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > and way behind in Georgia. What the hell, Georgia?). I just checked 538, and it shows trump 46.4 and Harris 45,3. How is that “way behind”? She is a whole 4% behind in Florida- which is not good- but kinda great in a way. She should be like 10% behind. > [@Aeschines](#): > > Frank Luntz, from what I hear, is a pretty right wing guy, thus not biased against GOP chances, but he’s sounding the alarm bell. From your cite- "_And according to pollster Frank Luntz:_ - If the election were held today, Harris would win. - Harris is growing the pool of voters, by winning over the “double haters.” - Harris is growing the pool of voters, by increasing voter participation. - Harris has the demographic and intensity advantage, over Trump. - These extra people, now motivated to vote, are enough to for her to win. - These extra voters may help Democrats win the House and the Senate. _Luntz seemed genuinely shocked by the sudden shift of voters now enthusiastically supporting the Harris-Walz ticket. Says he has never seen anything like it, in his lifetime — and he’s been doing [polling work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz), mostly for republicans, since 1992. So that’s saying something._" > [@Aeschines](#): > > I’m the same way. Average Trump voters are either stupid (= some combo of low-IQ, uneducated, uninformed) or evil, but it’s mostly the former. Oh, so much of the former! Not so much. See if all you watch is Faux, and you listen to Conservative talk radio, you can only think that trump is the savior and Harris is the devil. Sure it is their fault for listening just to Faux, but they are getting such a distorted world view, they think up is down, good is bad, etc. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/862 "2024-08-17T19:11:25Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I just checked 538, and it shows trump 46.4 and Harris 45.3. How is that “way behind”? That specific Times/Siena poll has Trump up by 4% in Georgia, which is (perhaps just mildly) surprising\*, given Harris’ relative strength in Arizona and North Carolina in the same poll. \*As Cohn mentions, it might just be “noise” - i.e., luck of the draw in a single poll. We’ll know better after then next high-quality poll there, especially the next one by the same outfit. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/863 "2024-08-17T19:25:06Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > openness to experience This, so very this! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/864 "2024-08-17T19:42:40Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Trump is facing total and utter devastation. This may be the earliest-called election race on Election Night since 1996. Where the hell is this coming from? Absolutely nothing indicates such a thing. Predicting the result of the election because you think Trump isn’t campaigning well is nuts. that is not how elections work, they work by people voting. As it stands Harris has maybe a lead of 2 or 3 points, which is not nearly enough to even guarantee victory, much less an easy victory, for a Democratic candidate. (Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percent.) And that’s **after** a few good weeks for her. It’s just blindingly insane to think the election is anything other than a coin flip. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/865 "2024-08-17T19:59:35Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Sure it is their fault for listening just to Faux, but they are getting such a distorted world view, they think up is down, good is bad, etc. I don’t think any adult just falls into watching 100% Fox News by accident. That vibe and that message has to resonate with you, and whether it resonates with you or not depends on your background, yes, but also your character. North Korea has only one political message, and its antagonism is directed against set enemies. In contrast, Fox News and the right wing media in general actually play up the antagonism: you can’t own the Libs if you don’t, to a certain extent, present the perspective of the Libs. Thus, anyone watching Fox knows that there isn’t just one way to perceive things. They stay in that bubble because they _like_ it. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/866 "2024-08-17T20:17:34Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s just blindingly insane to think the election is anything other than a coin flip. Come on now, get with the program. I bet you don’t even put your arms in the air when “the wave” comes around to your section, do you? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/867 "2024-08-17T20:29:02Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s just blindingly insane to think the election is anything other than a coin flip. As one of the several who has similarly reacted to the premature celebrations here, I will argue the other direction some: I think it is better than a coin flip. Just not very much better! The polls are nothing to celebrate, other than in comparison to where Biden had been stuck at. But there is every reason to believe that Harris will do at least as well as 2020 Biden did, even if she has not yet regained all the way there yet. There is perhaps less intense desire to vote against Trump now (time passing), but she is actually getting more voters excited to vote _for_ her. And there is also less intensity for Trump. Some of that is quantifiable and has been shown in this thread, less enthusiasm, less of a margin in his core group of non-college educate white men, so on. It seems rational, not blindingly insane, to believe that Harris should do at least as well as Biden 2020 against Trump 2024. But it does not seem rational to me to have _great confidence_ in that outcome. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/868 "2024-08-17T20:31:16Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > > [@Irishman](#): > > > > bronging back manufacturing jobs > > The industry has left them behind. Manufacturing is no longer a low skill industry. They don’t seem to know or at least accept that. What kind of jobs would be equivalent? Accessible without a college degree, yet able to provide a middle-class lifestyle for someone who works hard? Truck drivers? Plumbers and welders? Coal miners, but we want to reduce our eliminate coal, so what can they see now as a job that could replacd it? I mean, engaging windfarm and solar plant construction workers might fit that bill, but can they be convinced? Also, those are more transitory, not live in one place for decades. (And now I’ve trapped my typo for good.) > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It probably is true that money helps win in the Olympics. The U.S. earns far more medals per unit of population than China and India, and the U.S. being a richer country plausibly explains it. But politics is not the Olympics. You seem to have missed my point. The olympians touring afterwards is to earn a living doing elite gymnastics. It’s easier to get crowds in the wake of the olympics than off years. As for politics, how do politicians pay staff? People to campaign, to man “phone banks”, to go door to door, pay for travel around the country to speak? To strategize messages, to create focus groups? How come the size of a “warchest” is a common stat? This very thread has people asserting that the Dems need to keep the Reps spending money in Florida and Texas so they can’t spend that money in states that matter. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Those are gone, since WW2 is long over. America became the manufacturing center of the world since we bombed Germany and Japan into rubble, and GB and france were damaged and broke. China was in chaos. However, Japan, China, Korea, Germany etc have all recovered. Thank you for pointing that out. It’s a good observation. > [@OldOlds](#): > > As someone who is very much centrist, I’ll take the Dems over what the Republicans have become, but the Dems need something to counterbalance them. Any party does. Yeah, the Dems need a strong socialist party to arise to counterbalance them. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > When you’re getting taunts like this, maybe you’re done. And those are his key demographic - older white folk. > [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > “Supposedly” is doing a lot of work in something that’s flat-out false. Her role had nothing to do with border security. Her role was to tackle the root causes of undocumented immigration to the US. That is, figure out why people were coming here without documentation, and see what could be done to change those reasons. This is an excellent thing to point out, as a lot got lost in the headline that she was being tasked as a “Border Czar”. Too many people (me included) remember Biden assigning her some role on the border, but not the actual assignment. And the Dems have done an atrocious job in covering Harris. I wish this aspect had been stressed, visits promoted more, and outcomes l given press conferences. But I guess a large part of that is media disinterest in whatever the VP is up to. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/869 "2024-08-17T20:38:57Z")
Before the Republican convention in 2016, my wife went to visit her family in Ohio. They’re mostly skilled trades blue collar - carpenters, electricians, proud union members from birth. When she got home she said to me, “I’m telling you now, Trump can win this election.” They voted for Trump on blue collar, pocketbook issues. And they did it again in 2020. And they’ll vote on blue-collar pocketbook issues in 2024. Let’s see who appeals more to them before we declare a winner. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/870 "2024-08-17T20:50:07Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I think it is better than a coin flip. Just not very much better! I agree except I think it is _rather_ better than a coin flip. If Trump seemed strong, or at least as strong as he did in 2020, that would be one thing, but he is a wreck right now, whereas Harris looks stronger than anyone could have expected. IOW, Trump’s vector bad, Harris’s good. But Trump could still get his footing back, Harris could lose hers somewhat, and untoward events could happen. That’s why I’m not “confident” per se. > [@](#): > > The polls are nothing to celebrate, other than in comparison to where Biden had been stuck at. I find this characterization to be a bit odd. We barely had time to form expectations for Harris’s starting place in the polls, much less discuss such a thing in detail, but if she were _behind_ a few points nationally and in each state right now, I think it would hardly have seemed strange. Instead she is ahead in most swing states. That, I think, is exceptional performance for someone who had to land like a cat thrown out of a window and get running! > [@](#): > > But there is every reason to believe that Harris will do at least as well as 2020 Biden did, even if she has not yet regained all the way there yet. That, then, would be the race, however, since Biden won. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2024, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/871 "2024-08-17T20:59:45Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Where the hell is this coming from? Insincerity. It’s a flavor of coach-speak, i.e. talking up your opponent so your side plays harder or with a chip on their shoulders. Plus if your side ends up winning then you can taunt the losing side even more for blowing an “easy” victory. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/872 "2024-08-18T01:10:03Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > That, I think, is exceptional performance for someone who had to land like a cat thrown out of a window and get running! That’s an excellent turn of phrase, and I happen to agree with your premise. Harris/Walz is running a strong campaign, which has very broad (and deep) appeal, and they are against a feeble man who has nothing new to say. This is also this first election Trump will have been in since January 6th. That will give him a hit with some prior Trump voters. Having said all that, I remain absolutely gobsmacked that he _got more_ voters in ‘20 than in ‘16. So, he has his fans. And he has right wing media. Trump, as long as he is alive, is a force to be reckoned with. But he’s also bitter, and whiny, and no longer wants to leave his home. He’s not calling into Fox anymore, he’s consumed with personal grievances, and people no longer view him as the hotshot business man but as the ex-president who, regardless of your affiliation, had riots in the streets, mass deaths, widespread unemployment, and lots of fear and uncertainty at the end of his term. Vance can only do so much (and he plainly lacks the gravitas to take over if Trump - the oldest man ever nominated for president- were to keel over. And right wing media can only do _so_ much about Vance, and are ultimately powerless to overcome the social media zeitgeist that has chosen to destroy him). Now, _of course_ that isn’t the whole ballgame. We still have to get to November. And we don’t know what might arise from now and then. It’s like we are at halftime of a game. The team is playing great; they started off behind, but the rookie backup substituted for the injured veteran and has brought the team back, we might even be in the lead by a few points. _of course_ the rookie has to keep up the pace of that comeback she just led. She better not skip important states in her campaign! And if she starts creating turnovers, the game can easily be lost. So Harris must not make obvious gaffes, or let her ego get too inflated. Hopefully, she has good advisors and will remain humble. One huge platform, of course, is the debate. It’s the biggest performance of her life, as I think it will either solidify her momentum, and carry her to a solid victory, or she will falter and we have a tossup that Trump _can_ win. Harris certainly has the skills to perform brilliantly in the debate. Presumably, she will prepare (is preparing) with the intensity befitting the importance of the occasion. If she’s done her work, she can relax in the moment, and shine for the nation. I expect her to do so. She will sound rational, self assured, calm, and clear. It will make tens of millions of people feel better about voting Democrat for president. And Trump will just reinforce the views people already hold of him. His sycophants will adore him, and the rest of us will be repulsed. He knows no other schtick. He cannot persuade anybody at this point, unless it is to give up on him, either because of what he says in front of the national audience, or because his rambling nonsense finally seems alarming. But I don’t think that’s the variable which determines the outcome of the debate, and ultimately the election. Instead, it’s Harris and her performance. I felt like a debate with a bunch of candidates, as with the primaries, doesn’t let a person like Harris really flex her intellectual muscle. Here, she literally gets to go one on one with a known criminal. If she’s _any_ kind of trial lawyer, with _as much_ evidence as she has against him (in regards to his life, his statements, and his performance as president), she will eviscerate him. And if she does, or even just holds her own (which I fully expect), I’m _confident_ that she will win. Decisively (well, as decisively as it can be in these times; I think she’ll get a majority of the vote). America _wants_ to elect a woman. America has been wanting to shake things up for _years_. I think there is middle class frustration, because the growth in our economy has been hoarded by the wealthiest in society, and that failure to realize gains has put the middle class in the mood for change. In 2008, it manifested itself as a black man for president who made them believe that dramatic change was possible. There was palpable energy behind that campaign. Of course, change is hard and incremental, and the powers that hoard wealth resist progress. So by 2016, that middle class desire to shake things up manifested as a rogue business man who was willing to vocalize their anger. Tear it down! Of course, he was a grifter, and an incompetent one at that. And I think the backlash to that gave us Biden. We wanted change, but _good_ change. Nevertheless, the middle class angst remains. They don’t want establishment. But they don’t want anarchy, either. And so Harris gives them an outlet for their hopes, desires, and wishes for a better and more prosperous life. A woman. Of color. She’s the future. She’s progress. We’ll deal with the unrealistic expectations later. The powers that be will fight like hell to resist the inroads into their control. But, for now, for the election, Kamala Harris (joined by her brilliant choice for Veep, Tim Walz) epitomizes what America wants. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/873 "2024-08-18T02:37:51Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Harris/Walz is running a strong campaign, which has very broad (and deep) appeal, and they are against a feeble man who has nothing new to say. [This just today](https://wapo.st/3SUggno) was new: > [@](#): > > “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.” Dissing the Medal of Honor was new. That is highly unlikely to work for him. But other new riffs will. His support for a big child tax credit copycatted a Harris proposal, but was new to him. And Trump, bring irresponsible, can and will outpromise Harris. > [@Moriarty](#): > > She better not skip important states in her campaign! I am unaware of evidence to support the idea that this helps a presidential candidate win. The more she campaigns, the more tired she will be and thus liable to make mistakes. And what if the highest-rated local media in that state is Sinclair-controlled? > [@Moriarty](#): > > America _wants_ to elect a woman. Those on the fence between Harris, Trump, and not voting are liable to be against such identity politics, as am I. I agree with her father that the [“pursuit of identity politics”](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/20/kamala-harris-father-pot-1176805) should be avoided. And I think Kamala Harris will wisely mention it less and less going forward. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/874 "2024-08-18T02:51:59Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [This just today](https://wapo.st/3SUggno) was new: > > > [@](#): > > > > “I am much better looking than her. I’m a better-looking person than Kamala.” > > Dissing the Medal of Honor was new. Nah, insults and derision isn’t new. Coming up with a “nickname”, or calling a woman “ugly” is Trump going back 8 years. Dissing soldiers was an original when it was John McCain or a gold star family; it’s just a remix at this point. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The more she campaigns, the more tired she will be and thus liable to make mistakes. Sure, she should pace herself. It’s a race, and if the competition is just walking, you are advised to maintain a slight jog after you’ve established your lead. Don’t pull a muscle. But don’t let up with the effort to secure votes by showing up to places you need to win. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I agree with her father that the [“pursuit of identity politics”](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/20/kamala-harris-father-pot-1176805) should be avoided. And I think Kamala Harris will wisely mention it less and less going forward. I’m not saying that Harris should campaign on the issue. I’m saying that she is the novel candidate, and that is what has resonated the most since 2008 (Biden’s “return to normalcy” being the exception) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/875 "2024-08-18T03:47:37Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Of course, he was a grifter, and an incompetent one at that. Fairly competent until he went national, and a spotlight came on. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/876 "2024-08-18T05:26:03Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Those on the fence between Harris, Trump, and not voting are liable to be against such identity politics, as am I. So did you not vote for Clinton because she embraced the opportunity to be the first woman President? Because the people I recall making a big deal about it were arguing that because she was talking to women about bringing a woman’s perspective to the job that meant she wouldn’t be able to be for men. To me, that was preposterous, it was just an excuse to vote for Trump. Same thing here. If Harris mentions being a Black Asian Woman, I don’t freak out that that means I’m screwed. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/877 "2024-08-18T05:45:48Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Frank Luntz is largely responsible for the denigration of public discourse. I believe he is the one who said you should use powerful and disingenuous weasel words to tarnish your opponents - like sick, twisted, evil, criminal, horrid, deluded, etc. Luntz coauthored the “speak like Newt” memo that GOPAC issued in 1990, but his contribution was mostly the intellectual heft to say that these words were effective in their use against Democrats. Newt, on the other hand, had been using them for the previous decade. I’d place the polarization squarely on Newt Gingrich and his lust for political power. Luntz did come up with the term “death tax” to use for the estate tax, a term sometimes has people I know who are otherwise rational frothing at the mouth and up in arms over all the money they’re going to have to pay the government rather than their heirs (none have been anywhere close to 10 million in net worth). On the other hand, he seems to have somewhat of a conscience, as he’s attributed a couple of recent strokes to the stress of not speaking out against Donald Trump. So he has some limits. On the other other hand, the left can use some of his insights. For example, people are comfortable with “natural gas”, but really don’t like to hear that they cook and heat their house with “methane.” ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/878 "2024-08-18T12:16:38Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I agree except I think it is _rather_ better than a coin flip I’m sorry, it just isn’t. I’ve written on this thread about how it all comes down to **how soon the rise in Harris’ poll numbers ends (stalls, plateaus), _in Pennsylvania_.** (The only way this _isn’t_ the whole ballgame, is if her polling rise peters out _later_ in North Carolina AND Arizona. Or if there’s a systematic, undetected bias affecting almost _all_ polls). Starting five days ago, I have said that the plateau may already have occurred, or it may occur sometime in the next two or three weeks at most. I’m sorry to report that there is some evidence (not yet definitive) that it has already occurred (Nate Silver wrote two days ago about Harris’ “mediocre polling” in the last several days — see the PA poll below, by a respectable outfit, as an example). We won’t know until a few days after the Chicago convention — i.e., in about a week — whether the plateau really has happened already\*\*. But if it has, _in Pennsylvania_ (and NC and AZ), then this really will almost certainly be just slightly better than a coin flip. Really. Keep in mind that PA is full of the blue-collar types that @Kent_Clark described in neighboring Ohio. (\*\*There’s a chance that Trump’s sentencing, supposedly in September, could provide another boost for Harris…but it seems to me that’s just as likely to provide a boost to Trump, so I’m calling that a wash.) > **[Pennsylvania 2024 Poll: Trump 49%, Harris 48% - Emerson Polling](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-49-harris-48/)** > > Casey 48%, McCormick 44% A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey finds 49% of voters support…Full Release & Results I _do_ agree with you, @Aeschines, that Trump is a “wreck” right now, and that he’ll lose some votes mainly due to this. But he won’t lose many. “At least he’s _my_ wreck,” far too many are thinking. And if those folks are distributed among certain states just so, Trump could win. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/879 "2024-08-18T12:24:50Z")
I base this from reading Luntz’s “Words That Work” many years ago. Not sure when it was published though. But it has gone through at least six editions. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2024, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/880 "2024-08-18T14:43:50Z")
Well, you’re probably more informed on the man than I am. But Gingrich was making his “empty chamber” speeches on C-SPAN before Luntz was out of undergrad. I still look at Newt as the leader. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=45)