# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/921 "2024-08-19T16:53:55Z")
I have a hard time imagining anyone who followed American politics at all over the past ten years or so not understanding the importance of Pennsylvania in the presidential election. It’s like being needing to have someone penetrate your bubble to tell you that the electoral college exists. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/922 "2024-08-19T16:57:46Z")
Of course I knew, but I had not heard anyone from our side say something like, “Things might seem to be looking good overall, but, actually guys, we might be fucked because of PA.” ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/923 "2024-08-19T16:58:02Z")
True…but, to be fair, in 2016 and 2020, Wisconsin and Michigan were equally as critical as Pennsylvania, and were treated as such in most serious news and opinion. The difference this time is that, in polling over the last three weeks or so, WI and MI have nudged cautiously toward “looking pretty good for Harris,” while PA has gotten stuck at “truly a toss-up.” So, PA has always been important, but right now it’s looking even more important (i.e., more likely than the others to fuck things up, as Aeschines might put it) than before. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/924 "2024-08-19T16:59:18Z")
I think this is the best summary of the point you’ve provided thus far. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/925 "2024-08-19T17:01:02Z")
Thanks. (Okay that, on edit, I spiced up the verbiage a bit?). ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/926 "2024-08-19T17:27:54Z")
Yeah, rawkin’! I think the contrast with the other two states helps. Why is PA lagging? What’s going on there? And maybe it will pop back up, or maybe not. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/927 "2024-08-19T17:48:18Z")
Excellent question. Yup. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/928 "2024-08-19T17:57:51Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Of course I knew, but I had not heard anyone from our side say something like, “Things might seem to be looking good overall, but, actually guys, we might be fucked because of PA.” Isn’t that being said by like every other poster in this thread? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/929 "2024-08-19T17:59:57Z")
He meant “hadn’t heard in Salon and a few other news and analysis sources I like to read.” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/930 "2024-08-19T18:28:08Z")
Yeah, the spin I’ve been seeing has been very positive. Not, “It’s gonna be a blowout!” level positive. But positive. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/931 "2024-08-19T18:35:05Z")
This kind of positive: > **[Harris Is Sailing, Trump Is Flailing, and the Right Is Bailing. Wow.](https://newrepublic.com/article/184984/harris-sailing-trump-flailing-right-bailing-wow)** > > If the Democrats accomplish what they need to this week in Chicago, then yes: America will be damn straight ready for President Kamala Harris. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/932 "2024-08-19T18:39:19Z")
Interesting. Let’s hope they leaven their giddiness with a bit of real concern, and their readers convert both into action. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/933 "2024-08-19T18:47:23Z")
I think Harris will win the popular vote and Trump will with the electoral college. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/934 "2024-08-19T20:50:43Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > As I’ve said repeatedly, Harris _could_ win without PA, but almost certainly this would only happen if she did win _both_ Arizona _and_ North Carolina. (Do the math, and observe her recent polling in those states, compared to other swing states). Or just win Florida. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/935 "2024-08-19T20:54:23Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Or just win Florida. Very unlikely, based on recent (and not-so-recent) polling. If Harris wins Florida, it’s because there’s been a true implosion of Republican voters nationwide — unlikely, but possible — and then she will obviously have won PA, WI, AZ, NC, NV, and possibly GA, so Florida won’t have mattered. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/936 "2024-08-19T21:02:11Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Very unlikely, based on recent (and not-so-recent) polling. If Harris wins Florida, it’s because there’s been a true implosion of Republican voters nationwide — unlikely, but possible You forget one thing- Florida will have Abortion on the same ballot. This has been disastrous for the MAGAs every time, it brings out a slew of women who dont always vote. And all of the newish voters tend to vote against the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/937 "2024-08-19T21:03:50Z")
That’s true. The abortion measure will surely help Harris. I hope you’re right! I’ve just been burned so many times by that fuckin’ state, I don’t want to get my hopes up. (And, its multiple media markets makes it expensive to advertise there). But it _could_ happen, sure. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/938 "2024-08-19T21:04:54Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I hope you’re right! I’ve just been burned so many times by that fuckin’ state, I don’t want to get my hopes up. > > But it _could_ happen, sure. Not likely, but it could happen, and the _real_ GOP (not the MAGA part) must be worried about it. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/939 "2024-08-19T21:06:25Z")
Let’s hope they’re worried enough to spend a bunch of cash on advertising and GOTV that would have otherwise been spent in PA, NC, WI, etc. (and that the Dems are smart enough to abstain from following suit). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2024, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/940 "2024-08-19T21:09:59Z")
The RNC is now a wholly owned trump subsidiary- they exist to pay his bills and elect him, and they are doing poorly. The Dems should run just enuf ads to make people know that banning abortion (which is hugely unpopular) is 100% trumps fault. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=48)