# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/81 "2024-08-07T01:08:36Z")
Emphasis added: > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Sooner or later the Republicans will have another win streak. Sooner or later something will go bad for the Democrats. This happens every election cycle, especially when the incumbent isn’t running. The magnitude of the events, their length, **and their timing** will determine where the current polling tie will fall. So an October surprise could give Trump a bump in the polls. Maybe Harris’ email retention policy isn’t as airtight as the press thinks _or has been led to believe_. I’ll quote from today’s New York Times Pitchbot to give a flavor of what we might learn in October: > Opinion | I was a lifelong liberal Democrat. Then I learned that Tim Walz had a DUI in Nebraska in 1995. > All ten Jewish Senators are Democrats and 24 of the 27 Jewish members of the House are Democrats. Here is why Kamala Harris’s decision to choose Tim Walz shows that the Democratic party is hostile to Jews. > Will Tim Walz be too old too run for a second term in 2036? > Most observers see today’s stock market rally as good news. But X-user [@cryptotesla1488](https://x.com/cryptotesla1488) isn’t so sure. > Whether it’s J. D. Vance pretending to be from rural eastern Kentucky or Tim Walz actually being from rural eastern Nebraska, both candidates have shown a real connection with rural America. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/82 "2024-08-07T01:08:58Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > You’ve been wildly wrong and overenthusiastic about your predictions (Trump no being the nominee, dropping from the debate). The thread that predicted that Ron DeSantis was going to fail hard at the run for POTUS, that one at least was correct. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/83 "2024-08-07T01:10:54Z")
I had forgotten that. I also predicted that JD Vance was a terrible pick for VP when many in the thread were defending the choice. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/84 "2024-08-07T01:17:15Z")
Is there a way to read the Times Pitchbot (who is a fellow resident of Rochester) other than joining Twitter? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/85 "2024-08-07T01:29:50Z")
I don’t think you need an X account to read the Pitchbot. > [x.com](https://x.com/DougJBalloon) > [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > You’ve been wildly wrong and overenthusiastic about your predictions (Trump no being the nominee, dropping from the debate). Maybe some humility about your political instincts is in order. I think that Aeschines, to his credit, has listened to feedback and dialed back the certainty. Furthermore, the OP was a masterclass on how to pitch a thread topic. Check it out: > [@Aeschines](#): > > But right now, it seems as though the Democrats are doing everything right, and the Republicans are doing everything wrong. … I’m going to delineate what I see as the positives for the Democrats and the negatives for the Republicans. … If you think I’m missing something, let me know. Fighting ignorance in the political realm is a matter of weighing competing considerations. So Aeschines provides his take, then lists the pluses and minuses of his case and asks the board’s membership to provide other lines of argument as appropriate. That’s how it’s done. Substantively, I agree with **Exapno Mapcase** that it won’t be a straight line to election day. If it is, that would be _really_ unprecedented. But this is a well-framed thread. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/86 "2024-08-07T01:30:38Z")
In 2036, hopefully Tim Walz will be 72 years old. If Trump wins, the U.S. as we know it, whatever that means, will not exist IMNSHO. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/87 "2024-08-07T01:32:47Z")
There are any number of domestic/world events that Trump could heavily exploit - including an economic downturn, terrorism, a horrific violent crime like the one that has right-wing Britons rioting, Kamala or other Democrats saying/doing stupid things etc. It doesn’t even have to be an actual event, what with disinformation bots working full time. The race appears to be a tossup right now. Any Democratic overconfidence at this point is ludicrous. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/88 "2024-08-07T01:36:35Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I think that Aeschines, to his credit, has listened to feedback and dialed back the certainty. Thanks for the kind words! People didn’t like me making predictions, saying it was jinxing things. So I didn’t here. In any case, there’s nothing really to predict that’s _interesting._ It’s a close race. I _was_ rather certain that Trump would not debate Biden. So were a lot of people in the media. I was dead, crazy wrong with the way that debate turned out. LOL. I wasn’t really certain about Trump not being the nominee. I just thought the possibility was an interesting one to explore and at least seemed plausible. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/89 "2024-08-07T01:37:12Z")
Short answer- cheating. They have election deniers in place in many counties in swing states, they may simply refuse to certify the results. Do this in enough counties in enough states and we could have a real mess resulting in the election being thrown to the House. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/90 "2024-08-07T01:38:28Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Do this in enough counties in enough states and we could have a real mess resulting in the election being thrown to the House. I don’t think that would count as _winning per se._ And I don’t think it would result in anything less than the coming apart of the country. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/91 "2024-08-07T01:43:59Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > There are any number of domestic/world events that Trump could heavily exploit - including an economic downturn, terrorism, a horrific violent crime like the one that has right-wing Britons rioting, Kamala or other Democrats saying/doing stupid things etc. Agreed, but events could also help the Democratic ticket. Harris could greet returning hostages. Harris could visit tornado and hurricane victims, using the powers of incumbency to bring real assistance. And when Trump tried copycat visits, he could get negative publicity for interfering with relief efforts. Harris, with Biden’s acquiescence, can thus harness the powers of incumbency. Trump cannot. Harris may believe more in campaigning, and less in visibly doing her current job, than I do. But she may decide to do both. All Trump can do is campaign, and hope for national bad news. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/92 "2024-08-07T01:45:59Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Tell them they are shitheels (go simpler if you have to). Tell them they are scum for what they want to do to others. Tell them they are bigots, _in those very words_. If they really are proud of being bigots and shitheels, then refer to them using those very words. > I am done trying to help them-They ARE the problem. I’m at the same point, so I can’t help but agree. Mock them. Will it change their minds? Almost certainly not. But these people don’t live in reality and you’re not going to convince them with facts anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/93 "2024-08-07T01:49:15Z")
As a Canadian, I value democracy and the stability provided by institutions and tradition. These are imperfect, but for many reasons a Trump presidency would be more volatile. This would not be my personal preference. Many quickly dismissed Trump’s chances in 2016. I did not. Although subsequent years proved my understanding of America was not nearly as good as I thought, I felt many Americans preferred entertainment to politics, liked outsider candidates, and that Trump had a gift for getting ample coverage to the extent journalists were asking him about his opinion on everything and stating this as news. Of course, events still greatly surprised me. The fact that half the cabinet members who served under Trump are unenthusiastic about his current candidacy says volumes, and may be without precedent. Still, at this point Harris and Trump are essentially even. While I am optimistic at the improvement in Democratic morale, Trump could still win and his chances of doing so are surprisingly high. He has managed to maintain the support of many people. Only a few States may make all the difference, and the local apparatus matters. There are many reasons people support him. Some still see him as a successful businessman and entertainer. Some prefer his views on “single issue” policies such as taxes. borders, social and religious issues, smaller government, foreign policy, safety nets, etc. regardless of consistency or actual effect. Giving donors the right to change or write policy is always popular with some. Plenty of folks think his legal issues unjust or political and are willing to overlook many concerns. Others simply enjoy his bombast, contrarianism and disregard for convention. I don’t claim to understand it all, but where people stand sometimes depends on where they sit and people and regions are anything but monolithic. The Democrats are doing some things better but counting chickens is not yet helpful. Vance seems to be a polarizing figure, as is Trump, but I am not sure his base dislikes the choice as much as the media portrays. They’ve got things wrong before, of course. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/94 "2024-08-07T01:50:38Z")
Histrionics and hyperbole aside, how can Donald Trump win? Quite easily. The election is going to hinge on turn out in a few swing states. Excite voters in those states by less than a percentage point more than Harris and he has it. That’s a double edged sword of course and he could quite easily lose. What won’t determine the chance is levels of excitement in areas where either side has a considerable margin. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/95 "2024-08-07T01:55:08Z")
I mean if things stay as they are it’s pretty much a toss up. I really hope Harris will pull away and make the next couple of months a bit less stressful (and I really hope she will deliver a big enough win to end Trump’s career and destroy the MAGA movement) but that’s a hope not an expectation. Right now Trump stands approximately the same chance of winning as Harris. That’s insane, utterly utterly bonkers, like there a thousand things about it that would have been considered flat out impossible a decade ago, but thats where we are ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/96 "2024-08-07T02:22:55Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Many quickly dismissed Trump’s chances in 2016. And indeed, the campaign against Trump in that year was lackadaisical because Trump was regarded as a joke candidate. Certainly at some point he has to settle down and start acting like a politician, right? Wrong, he redefined what a politician was, tapping into a vast reservoir of anger and resentment and xenophobia and declaring himself to be the answer. While this should not have worked, it is noted in the bible that the Anti-Christ will be obvious and people will fall for it anyway. In this campaign, Harris knows that Trump is not a joke and that Trump is capable of a level of shitbaggery that has never been seen in US politics before, surpassing even the scheming and machinations of Trump’s previous campaigns. Harris is campaigning as if she is the underdog (which I don’t personally think she is but I am biased) and I think this will serve her well. Certainly better than a certain she-who-shall-not-be-named who campaigned in 2016 like the country owed her something. How does Trump win in any situation where he is absolutely and resolutely fucked? By refusing to lose and refusing to recognize when he has lost, a talent that has taken him way, way beyond where it ever possibly should have. But he won’t be doing it unopposed this time. And he has dementia. And his unresolved mental trauma from getting shot in the head by one of his own supporters is clearly leading him to blustering out his anger anywhere and everywhere he goes. Refusing to lose won’t cut it any longer. He has used it all up. Like his NFT collection, what once was shiny no longer holds any value or appeal except to an insignificant few who cannot sustain him. So all in all, the best way for Trump to win at this point is to die. If he dies, he doesn’t get sentenced for his 34 convictions and all the other cases go away. He doesn’t get humiliated in another debate. He doesn’t suffer a rout on election day where he will claim Harris cheated and no one will care. He doesn’t have to go through another round of his sycophants and lackeys betraying him for however long his hamburger grease-clogged heart can hold out. If Trump dies, the Republicans can run absolutely anyone (although I wouldn’t recommend JD Vance, I’m pretty sure that guy fucks couches) and they will get a better result. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/97 "2024-08-07T02:27:50Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > The election is going to hinge on turn out in a few swing states. Excite voters in those states by less than a percentage point more than Harris and he has it. Harris is also up in swing state polling. Nate Silver just put her higher than Trump for the first time. Yes, it’s still close. But how is Trump going to “excite” voters more than he already has? He is coasting right now. He has not tried to do anything different now that it’s Harris and not Biden. To me, it’s a bit of a reverse of 2016. Clinton was the favorite to win, but she had weaknesses and Trump kept rising bit by bit. Trump was the favorite to win before Harris came in, but now she has the momentum. I think these are the questions to answer at this point: 1. Can Harris keep rising? 2. Can Trump do anything different? 3. What do the polls say, and how accurate are they? 4. Will unexpected events continue to affect the race? The word “tossup” wasn’t used in 2016, though in hindsight I think it was appropriate. It’s being used right now, and I don’t think it’s appropriate, although I can’t quite put my finger on why exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/98 "2024-08-07T02:32:07Z")
I don’t agree Trump currently has dementia, though I do agree with much of your post. Reading about Walz in The Guardian, they quoted him as saying that in seven years in the public eye he could not recall Trump laughing. Is that true? Certainly he is more stern and serious than he was in 2016, but never? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/99 "2024-08-07T02:32:18Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > So all in all, the best way for Trump to win at this point is to die. He would get all that and get to live if he were to quit the race. I think that that _would_ be the smart thing for him to do. But I’ve now seen more than one video of Russian soldiers choosing to die than to surrender to Ukrainians, and I think Trump is a dead-ender in this vein. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/100 "2024-08-07T02:33:26Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Reading about Walz in The Guardian, they quoted him as saying that in seven years in the public eye he could not recall Trump laughing. Is that true? It’s funny, but I just saw Trump laugh a little in a video I saw like yesterday. I can’t remember which one. It seemed very odd because he does it so little. Edit: I found an example that is similar to what I saw: > **[Trump laughs after audience member suggests shooting migrants](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9AXGPo1vvM%2F)** > > An audience member at a Donald Trump rally in Florida yelled 'shoot them' in reference to migrants at the border. Trump had asked the crowd: 'How do you stop... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=6)