# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 60
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2024, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1181 "2024-08-24T23:38:37Z")
OK, which states? The only plausible candidate that has been suggested is Georgia, where a dumb new law in theory empowers the Republican-majority election board to raise a challenge. That’s it, really. In terms of election denialism this year, I don’t think Trump is going to try anything beyond his standard pissing and moaning. There may be a rogue actor at the county level here and there, but it won’t make a difference. Also, we know how Trump thinks and acts. Do you think he’d seem as depressed and manic as he does if he were truly confident that he could just steal the thing later? I think he’d have a glint in his eye and would be dropping some hints about it. He isn’t. I don’t think he has such a plan at all. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2024, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1182 "2024-08-24T23:45:57Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > What he means is that foreign students attending US universities should be **compelled** to remain in the US after they graduate. > ['You have fully lost my vote': Trump supporters rebel against him over new policy proposal](https://www.rawstory.com/trump-fans-rebel-over-immigration-proposal-green-card-college/) Cite for this part? I skimmed the article but didn’t see that. But yeah, Trump is flailing now. He’s just too old and tired to put any kind of coherent message together, much less figure out how to square the circle of policy so that it appeals to both his base and the general public. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2024, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1183 "2024-08-24T23:59:21Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Cite for this part? I skimmed the article but didn’t see that. It’s in the article, but frankly I think that part may be sensationalist reporting. My main point was that in trying desperately to broaden his base, he’s pissing off some of the extremists in the MAGA core. It’s a risk you run when you have no principles whatsoever. Anyway, this was the paragraph from the article: > “Despite facing friendly fire from so-called national conservatives over a recent interview with the venture capitalists on the All-In podcast, former President Donald Trump’s latest insistence that foreign students be compelled to stay in the country after attending an American college exemplifies the former president’s pro-growth strain of ‘America First,’” the article states. > [@Aeschines](#): > > But yeah, Trump is flailing now. He’s just too old and tired to put any kind of coherent message together, much less figure out how to square the circle of policy so that it appeals to both his base and the general public. Fully agree, and loving it! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1184 "2024-08-25T00:01:42Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think his IQ is clearly north of 100. Perhaps in the Southern Hemisphere it might be. I’m not fooled by a degree from Wharton. Rich boys can pay someone to do their homework and pay off their professors to pass their exams. I don’t believe he cracked a book the entire time he was there. He isn’t at all smart, but he’s a good con. He makes weak people think he’s strong, poor people think he’s rich, and stupid people think he’s smart. That’s it. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1185 "2024-08-25T00:02:32Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > He’s just too old and tired to put any kind of coherent message together, much less figure out how to square the circle of policy so that it appeals to both his base and the general public. And, moreso, he really doesn’t want to. From today’s WaPo (gift link below): > [@](#): > > Several former aides who have known Trump for years said he always preferred to keep a lighter schedule in August, when his family visited Bedminster and he usually golfed almost every day. > > But aides did not want a situation where he was watching the convention every night, getting angry, and then just golfing all day and stewing, according to people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private interactions. Trump also had grown annoyed with the news coverage that depicted him as not working as hard as his opponent, one person who talked to him said. > > So the campaign launched back-to-back events over the past week, with the goal of counterprogramming the Democratic convention and securing news coverage, as other campaigns have often done, but also as a way to keep Trump busy. > > The candidate, though, often appeared reluctant. He frequently departed from the policy themes assigned to each day’s event — an attempt to keep him focused on poll-tested messages over his pugnacious impulses — illustrating his continued struggle to find his footing in a changed race. > [@](#): > > A person close to the campaign said Trump does not like reading issue-focused speeches that do not entertain his live audience. At an event Thursday at the southern border, the first words out of Trump’s mouth took aim not at Harris’s immigration policies but instead at the Democrats’ decision to choose Harris as President Joe Biden’s replacement at the top of the ticket. > [@](#): > > Trump has publicly acknowledged his challenge in defining Harris, describing his goal as to portray her as a “communist.” His frustration with his advisers burst into public Wednesday when he mocked them for telling him to focus on politics instead of personal insults. He then polled the crowd on which they preferred and, when they predictably cheered louder for personal attacks, Trump joked, “My advisers are fired.” [https://wapo.st/46YTuAy](https://wapo.st/46YTuAy) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1186 "2024-08-25T00:08:17Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > And, moreso, he really doesn’t want to. Thanks for the article! Yeah, the guy clearly lacks the will to win, which he had in spades in 2016. Can you imagine how he’ll seem a month from now?! Further, his surrogate support has disintegrated. If anything, his allies are publicly advising him to stop fucking up. There seem to be no professionals at work at all. A true nobody’s home campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1187 "2024-08-25T00:10:07Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > OK, which states? I haven’t the faintest idea. I wasn’t trying to analyze which states might fail to have their electoral votes counted, just that the math doesn’t necessarily require overturning or ignoring the Electoral Count Reform Act for Trump to win. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1188 "2024-08-25T00:12:27Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Yeah, the guy clearly lacks the will to win, I am not sure that he lacks the will to win, per se, so much as he’s unwilling to change his strategy. He _likes_ making personal attacks on his opponents, and going to rallies where people cheer for the provocative things he says. He doesn’t want to talk strategies; he wants to say sound bites, complain about how he’s been wronged, and tell stories. It probably doesn’t help that he also (despite his belief otherwise) has never had a strong work ethic, and seems to be becoming the “low energy” guy that he regularly has mocked others for being. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1189 "2024-08-25T00:14:09Z")
That’s true, but the scenario isn’t realistic overall. Trump isn’t playing 9D chess right now. He seems barely able to dress himself and get out the door. To revisit my OP very quickly: Trump will only win if he limps over the finish line with just enough voters who happen to vote for him in swing states. He’s doing absolutely nothing to increase that total and seems to be actively destroying his chances with his efforts. At the same time, his downside potential remains immense. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1190 "2024-08-25T00:16:45Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Yeah, the guy clearly lacks the will to win, which he had in spades in 2016. Can you imagine how he’ll seem a month from now?! A month from now? The September 10 debate in which I fully expect Harris to totally destroy him is barely more than two weeks away. He’ll be trying his usual bullying bullshit but Harris has dealt with that her whole prosecutorial career. I humbly admit that I’m far more impressed with Harris than I ever thought I would be. Trump’s bluster and bullying is no match for her. Trump can still win. It all depends on how intractably stupid and Fox-News-addled swing state voters are. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1191 "2024-08-25T00:17:28Z")
Doesn’t it all amount to the same thing, however? If he had the will to win, he _would_ be fine-tuning his strategy, listening with a close ear to his advisors. Holding events with real energy instead of lethargy. Hitting it every day like a mutherfucker and fighting for every vote. This ain’t that. He was much, much better in 2016 and significantly better in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1192 "2024-08-25T00:18:18Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > That’s true, but the scenario isn’t realistic overall. It’s August. The way things have been going, I don’t know what the hell will be realistic by November. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1193 "2024-08-25T00:20:26Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > A month from now? The September 10 debate in which I fully expect Harris to totally destroy him is barely more than two weeks away. Oops, yeah. Utter humiliation and abasement is in store for him. > [@](#): > > I humbly admit that I’m far more impressed with Harris than I ever thought I would be. My expectations were never low, but she has far, far exceeded even those. She came out of gate like a true champion, completely confident and ready. Amazing. > [@](#): > > Trump can still win. It all depends on how intractably stupid and Fox-News-addled swing state voters are. That’s basically it. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1194 "2024-08-25T00:22:10Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I am not sure that he lacks the will to win, per se, so much as he’s unwilling to change his strategy. Or he doesn’t think he needs to. It might be easy to think your opponents are stupid, but it’s rarely a wise strategy ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1195 "2024-08-25T00:22:29Z")
Something will change to make election cheating more plausible?! Like I said, this is like the “riots at the DNC” thing. Inchoate fear given a false reification. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1196 "2024-08-25T00:23:37Z")
> [@Chingon](#): > > Or he doesn’t think he needs to. Yeah, this is, in a way, worse than not having the will to change. If he thinks things are going well for him, then great! He will continue his path down the tubes. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1197 "2024-08-25T00:31:28Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > If he thinks things are going well for him, then great! I don’t think this is it. Rather, I subscribe to your flop sweat theory. Donald knows that he’s losing ground, and it rankles him. But he’s a coward who was nearly killed, and who doesn’t pay his bills, so he’s not eager to get on the campaign trail (per his website, his next appearances are not until Thursday and Friday, although he is going to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, respectively). And that is gong to make him more desperate. Desperation leads to him saying more unhinged things. Which is only going to dig his hole deeper, making him more desperate. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1198 "2024-08-25T00:33:36Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Utter humiliation and abasement is in store for him. Wasn’t your crystal ball predicting it to be “in store for him” against Biden in their debate as well? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1199 "2024-08-25T00:38:23Z")
What you just said. I agree that he knows he’s failing, so it really comes down to a lack of will and discipline. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1200 "2024-08-25T00:42:18Z")
Hahahaha, are you even _suggesting_ that Harris could fail on Biden’s level in the debate? I think, at worst for Harris, Trump brings a lot of energy and they end up talking past each other. But as for Biden’s debate with Trump. I was wrong. Very wrong. The actual situation was so far from my conception of reality that one of the most unusual series of events in American political history ended up happening. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=59) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=61)