# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 61
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1201 "2024-08-25T00:45:21Z")
On this day in 2016, Clinton was far ahead of where Harris is. [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/) ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1202 "2024-08-25T00:57:15Z")
Let’s hope Comey keeps his trap shut this time. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1203 "2024-08-25T00:57:25Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Something will change to make election cheating more plausible?! There have been plenty of surprises already in this campaign. I don’t know what the next surprise will be (if I did, it wouldn’t be a surprise), but I expect at least one more. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1204 "2024-08-25T01:02:08Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > Let’s hope Comey keeps his trap shut this time. And Wikileaks doesn’t release a trove of emails. (And that the republicans don’t have decades of negative messaging to paint the candidate as corrupt. But I think we are in the clear, here). ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1205 "2024-08-25T01:05:58Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > I’m just gonna say it. Kamala should have made a deal with RFK Jr. (without an explicit quid pro quo) and found a way to reneg later. She’s down by 2% on PredictIt since he endorsed Trump, and that’s right after the typical post-convention bump. No. RFK Jr. is a mixed bag of crazy. She wants him nowhere near her or the government she’s building. Here’s analysis on Kennedy’s supporters from the Pew Research Center: > **[As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits, a look at who supported him in the 2024...](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/23/as-rfk-jr-exits-a-look-at-who-supported-him-in-the-2024-presidential-race/)** > > Many of Kennedy’s July supporters decided to back Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 2 to 1 after Biden withdrew from the race. 1. Kennedy’s support was already falling, from a 15% high down to 7%. 2. Of those who have already changed their support, 39% went Harris while only 20%went Trump. _So Harris was already winning over Kennedy’s supporters that are winnable._ 3. Kennedy’s supporters skewed younger, less interested in following politics, and less motivated to vote for President. In other words, _many of Kennedy’s remaining supporters are more likely to not vote than swap to another candidate_. Interviews with his supporters listed a mixed bag of reasons to vote for him: his environmental work, his status as a Kennedy suggesting his social liberal cred, and an unearned belief in his honesty and credibility. Two of those point to supporting Harris, and the third certainly doesn’t support Trump. Kennedy’s supporters are mostly unaffiliated independents. Kennedy’s endorsement isn’t likely to sway many of them as they pride themselves on independence. So why should she risk alienating her supporters by making a deal with a wacko? And then ruin her credibility for the future by backing out on it? > [@wolfpup](#): > > But since Trump is an idiot, that’s not what he means. What he means is that foreign students attending US universities should be **compelled** to remain in the US after they graduate. Where did he say compelled? How is offering a green card compelling them to stay? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1206 "2024-08-25T01:06:50Z")
Election cheating/stealing isn’t part of the campaign, nor will the legal regime that makes it (im)possible be changing. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1207 "2024-08-25T01:12:03Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > There have been plenty of surprises already in this campaign. I don’t know what the next surprise will be (if I did, it wouldn’t be a surprise), but I expect at least one more. This election has been insane, remember Harris wasn’t even the original candidate, then Trump got shot. We are in uncharted waters and no one knows what’s going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1208 "2024-08-25T01:32:07Z")
I don’t think even Biden failed at Biden’s level in the debate. Looking at transcripts, I think Biden did better than Trump who was mainly mendacious. Biden’s failings were looking away from the camera and looking tired and frail. Kanaka does not look old nor frail, but I hope her prep team is different and better prepared. But this is not a real debate. Harris needs to abrogate the Gish Gallop, look interested and unflustered, stick to her talking points and unleash a few mild zingers. Of course she can do that. But the list of better and skilled debaters who underestimated Trump is surprisingly long. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1209 "2024-08-25T01:32:45Z")
Perhaps you could state a conclusion of some sort. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1210 "2024-08-25T01:36:19Z")
Sure. Had Biden not seemed like a dying old man during the debate, he would still be the candidate. That was his failure, but it was a serious one. In terms of substance, I don’t think he was _great,_ but he had at least some substance whereas Trump had zero. I’m sure that Harris can do a lot better in that area. In terms of the polemics outside of the actual delivery, Biden wasn’t great either. “You’ve got the morals of an alley cat” could have been a zinger back in 1956, maybe. I’m fairly confident that Harris can bust a few good lines that actually sound like they’re from 2024. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1211 "2024-08-25T01:37:00Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Perhaps you could state a conclusion of some sort. Sure, your enthusiasm is completely at odds with the reality. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1212 "2024-08-25T01:39:13Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I don’t think Florida is really in play. trump is ahead by less than 4 points. 3.8 to be exact overall. And Abortion is on the ballot, which always brings out extra women voters to vote NO. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > The shift to Harris has made us all a bit giddy, daydreaming about Florida and Texas. Nope, not unless something hugely dramatic occurs. Yes, something hugely dramatic already occured- abortion is on the ballot. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > Let’s hope Comey keeps his trap shut this time. He is gone now. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1213 "2024-08-25T01:39:49Z")
And do you have any arguments in favor of your position? Your thing about Clinton needs to be fleshed out more in order for me to make any kind of response, if that’s what you desire. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1214 "2024-08-25T01:44:36Z")
I don’t see the point this thread is not a discussion of the election, it is a place to engage in delusional fantasies. This race is extremely close, Pennsylvania is a tie. Harris is trending in the right direction, but it is far too close for the celebratory tone I see here. I don’t know if you’re old enough to remember the 2016 election, but Democrats then were just as sure Clinton would win. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1215 "2024-08-25T01:46:34Z")
Not sure when you came in here, but we’ve dealt with points like this about a dozen times so far. The first election I remember was 1976, though I was much too young to vote! ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1216 "2024-08-25T01:59:07Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Not sure when you came in here, but we’ve dealt with points like this about a dozen times so far. I’ve posted in this thread many times and the fact that these points have been raised about a dozen times and you still have an enthusiasm at odds with that reality is my point. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1217 "2024-08-25T02:03:37Z")
I guess you just haven’t convinced me I’m wrong yet! But your opinion is noted. ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1218 "2024-08-25T02:16:36Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > The way things have been going, I don’t know what the hell will be realistic by November. The 2020s are turning out to be the “Didn’t See THAT Coming” decade. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1219 "2024-08-25T02:45:17Z")
I kinda think you have to start with 9/11, 2001. Oh, and then the economic crisis… ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2024, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1220 "2024-08-25T02:57:06Z")
One answer to the OP question — Trump will shamelessly flip-flop to whatever position polls well — while Harris has to say what she believes. From [Politico today:](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/24/trump-abortion-reactions-00176276) > [@](#): > > Donald Trump attempted to strike a new tone on the issue of abortion this week, saying he would be “great for women and their reproductive rights” NBC news today: [Vance says Trump would veto a national abortion ban](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/jd-vance-says-trump-veto-national-abortion-ban-rcna168084) Whenever Harris attacks Trump, during the debate, for something unpopular — say, low taxes on billionaires — he’ll say he believes the opposite. Will he get away with it? All I can say is — maybe. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=60) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=62)