# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 74
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1461 "2024-08-29T12:12:37Z")
> [@psychobunny](#): > > His base cannot be more than 30% of voters. This is very likely an underestimate. A lot of people have had trouble with the same idea for the last 10 years - that so many people, many of them our friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers, who seem so reasonable in person can be part of that. Part of what makes it worse is we clearly see the more extreme ones - the ones who are crazy enough to wear diapers to “pwn the libs” or don’t mind publicly wearing swaztikas or such. The ones who are colorful enough to make the news. What we don’t always see clearly are the ones who seem and look normal. The ones who don’t generally aren’t extreme. But who are perfectly fine with that crowd as long as their own little worlds aren’t disrupted and would be preserved by supporting a would-be fascist overlord. The ones that might get quoted in print but aren’t colorful enough to make it on TV news. There’s a parallel with racism. Most people, if direct asked, would be against racism. They think white hoods or lynchings or whatever. But ask about less direct forms and how to confront them, e.g. stuff like critical race theory, and suddenly they’re hemming and hawing like they got COVID. They don’t like even considering the idea that there’s a widespread and pervasive racist lean in the country. Sure, they’re ok with fighting the KKK and stuff, but when it’s about things that might make it easier for minorities to live in the same neighborhoods as them? And that same sort of thinking is pervasive among Trump supporters. As long as there’s a fig leaf (no matter how microscopic that leaf gets), they can tell themselves their own consciences are clear. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1462 "2024-08-29T12:20:00Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > She has been gaffe-free lately, which is good, because any gaffe she makes will damage her more than a Trump gaffe. Well, of course. Everyone expects Trump to be a stupid asshole. So it’s not news worthy. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1463 "2024-08-29T12:33:46Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > A lot of people have had trouble with the same idea for the last 10 years - that so many people, many of them our friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers, who seem so reasonable in person can be part of that. This is why fascism has been able to thrive in America, the so called moderates who do not challenge the fascists in their lives. They don’t call them out because they don’t want to ruin Thanksgiving, they tell themselves “deep down, he’s a good person.” White moderates let fascism thrive because ultimately they’ll be fine in Trump’s America. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1464 "2024-08-29T12:43:20Z")
Then again, there is the susceptibility of certain folk to Repubs’ “trickle down” lies, dating back (in my memory) to at least Reagan. Certain people have unwavering belief in Repubs supporting small government, and policies that help the middle class, despite consistent examples to the contrary. W/ Reagan - tho I thought him a blatant liar and a fool, I was able to accept that at least some people felt he had some genial paternalistic appeal. But under W and into Chump, I’ve just had to REALLY lower my opinion of a huge percentage (approaching half) of my fellow citizens. I LIKE to view our history throughout my life - born in 1960 - as one of overall improvement (with periodic steps back, but gradual upward trend) in terms of expansion of rights and opportunities to previously underprivileged persons/groups. Maybe that trend could continue upward after 4 years of Chump, but his election would begin a HUGE step backwards. We get the government we deserve. I HOPE that enough of my fellow citizens are intelligent enough and not so selfish and prejudiced that they will make the correct choice this fall. But I FEAR that polls underestimate the number of folk who will claim they are intelligent and tolerant, yet when given the chance to make their choice privately, they will vote for the Chump. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1465 "2024-08-29T12:46:22Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > the so called moderates who do not challenge the fascists in their lives — Letter from Birmingham Jail ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1466 "2024-08-29T12:55:19Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > — Letter from Birmingham Jail Yup, should be taught in every social studies class in America, but the fascists would flip out. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1467 "2024-08-29T12:59:05Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Living abroad, I meet a surprising number of non-American Trump supporters. I’ve posted this here before: I travel to Europe quite a bit for work, and I’ve been surprised at how many Trump supporters I’ve met in France, Belgium, and Germany. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1468 "2024-08-29T13:17:18Z")
Across the world anti-immigrant nationalist far right populism has been ascendant for a while now. America is far from unique in this. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1469 "2024-08-29T13:20:20Z")
As a European, I can tell there are Trumpists in every country here. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1470 "2024-08-29T13:32:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Across the world anti-immigrant nationalist far right populism has been ascendant for a while now. America is far from unique in this. Yeah, multicultural democracy is receding globally. I keep hoping we’ve reached the turning point, France’s elections were encouraging. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1471 "2024-08-29T13:33:22Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > What has transpired in the intervening four years that would cause his support to go down? Hmm, let’s see … - He instigated an insurrection and attack on the US Capitol. - He illegally hoarded (and quite likely sold) top secret documents. - He torpedoed a bipartisan immigration bill to suit his own political needs. - He’s been indicted for extremely serious crimes. - He’s been convicted of 34 felonies. - His business organization has been found liable for fraud and fined a half billion dollars. Anyone who still supports him after all that (and those are just the biggest headlines) is either utterly ignorant, or actually thinks all that stuff is just fine. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1472 "2024-08-29T13:36:17Z")
The popular vote result there was still concerning. To keep it on thread subject, the Right lost because other groups worked together to defeat them paying close attention to their equivalent of the Electoral College factors. We also need the center and left to work together and pay attention to where votes are. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1473 "2024-08-29T13:39:03Z")
Absolutely, **if** , and it is a big if, Harris wins, it will be along similar margins. I still think she’ll probably win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1474 "2024-08-29T13:54:18Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Independents might be breaking for Trump. > > The survey, by YouGov, found that 42 percent of independent voters said they plan to vote for Trump in this November’s election, while 37 percent said they would cast their ballot for Harris. To return to this. Again we really need to be skeptical reading too much into a subgroup analysis of a single poll. The n gets small. For YouGov the Independent subgroup gets under under 500. They have typically run about even 38 each plus minus one or two. Big Village meanwhile has their Independent numbers staying stable. When multiple houses are all reporting the same “break” or the same house shows it as a consistent trend across several polls, then it may be worth paying attention to. Just saying. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1475 "2024-08-29T13:55:53Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Anyone who still supports him after all that (and those are just the biggest headlines) is either utterly ignorant, or actually thinks all that stuff is just fine. Yeah. In 2020, everyone knew that he was an amoral, duplicitous criminal willing to screw over anyone to serve his own interests. The last four years have provided more and (to us) more shocking evidence of such, but for his voters I feel like this was already baked into the cake. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1476 "2024-08-29T14:03:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To return to this. Again we really need to be skeptical reading too much into a subgroup analysis of a single poll. I actually agree, I’m just trying to put the brakes on the irrational enthusiasm in this thread. The election is a tie and Trump voters tend to under report in polls by about 4%. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1477 "2024-08-29T14:05:07Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > > [@Akaj](#): > > > > Anyone who still supports him after all that (and those are just the biggest headlines) is either utterly ignorant, or actually thinks all that stuff is just fine. > > Yeah. In 2020, everyone knew that he was an amoral, duplicitous criminal willing to screw over anyone to serve his own interests. The last four years have provided more and (to us) more shocking evidence of such, but for his voters I feel like this was already baked into the cake. I’d like to think there’s a distinction between his “voters” and “supporters,” and that the former (let’s call them “hold-your-nose Republicans”) would have been reduced somewhat by the ongoing Trump outrages since November 2020. So far, it may be a trickle but no more than that. Sad. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1478 "2024-08-29T14:10:38Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > The election is a tie and Trump voters tend to under report in polls by about 4%. I suspect it is obvious from my posts that I agree with the first part. It is clearly a very tight race right now. I am very skeptical about the second clause though. Clearly one way Trump wins is that there is a systemic polling error in that direction. Could be. I don’t think we know that though. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1479 "2024-08-29T14:13:00Z")
I think there’s an element of basic human psychology here – people hate to admit to themselves that they were wrong. Particularly for “hold-your-nose Republicans” who already feel defensive about having voted for him, it can be easier on the ego to engage in the mental gymnastics necessary to justify continuing to support Trump rather than admitting to yourself that you helped install/nearly helped reelect a wannabe autocrat. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1480 "2024-08-29T14:16:25Z")
The last midterm election showed the polls underestimate Democratic voting. Remember the red tsunami of 2022? It turned out to be like a pebble tossed into a pond. The biggest danger is that for no particular reason, voters think that Republicans are better for the economy. As inflation cools further and interest rates begin to ebb, that issue becomes less significant. This is Harris’ election to lose. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=73) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=75)