# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 75
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1481 "2024-08-29T14:21:25Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > > [@Cervaise](#): > > > > — Letter from Birmingham Jail > > Yup, should be taught in every social studies class in America, but the fascists would flip out. FWIW, within the last five years, both my kids had lessons and essay assignments in high school about King’s letter. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1482 "2024-08-29T14:23:22Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I am very skeptical about the second clause though. Sorry this is from a paid site, but here’s an article from the Atlantic: (gift link) The 2016 election lives in popular memory as perhaps the most infamous polling miss of all time, but 2020 was quietly even worse. The polls four years ago badly underestimated Trump’s support even as they correctly forecast a Joe Biden win. A comprehensive [postmortem](https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf) by the American Association for Public Opinion Research concluded that 2020 polls were the least accurate in decades, overstating Biden’s advantage by an average of 3.9 percentage points nationally and 4.3 percentage points at the state level over the final two weeks of the election. (In 2016, by contrast, national polling predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular-vote margin quite accurately.) According to _The_ _New York Times_ , [Biden led](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html) by 10 points in Wisconsin but won it by less than 1 point; he led Michigan by 8 and won by 3; he led in Pennsylvania by 5 and won by about 1. As of this writing, [Harris is up](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) in all three states, but by less than Biden was. A 2020-size error would mean that she’s actually down—and poised to lose the Electoral College. > **[The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/08/election-polls-2020-mistakes/679545/?gift=G6HF8s4IM7cLjZQdCxzpYKldp6y5B-GKpa4JSqUqvVI&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share)** > > Pollsters think they’ve learned from their mistakes in 2020. Of course, they thought that last time too. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1483 "2024-08-29T14:33:20Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > > [@DSeid](#): > > > > Across the world anti-immigrant nationalist far right populism has been ascendant for a while now. America is far from unique in this. > > Yeah, multicultural democracy is receding globally. More generally, nationalist populism (mostly RW but some LW in Latin America - see Chavez, H.) has been on the upswing since the passing of the two-bloc geopolitical model c. 1990. Though IMO it had been there all along, WW2 and the Cold War merely shoved it to the wings for a while, but once the threat seemed gone, it was ready to come forth to fill the ideological vaccuum. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1484 "2024-08-29T14:36:51Z")
> [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](#): > > Is he going to get the SCOTUS to declare the Laws of Thermodynamics unconstitutional? This “thermodynamics” law has been holding us back for too long! Congress should act now to unleash the potential of cold fusion and free energy! Wait, “free” energy? That sounds kind of socialist… ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1485 "2024-08-29T14:44:01Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > _The Atlantic:_ > A 2020-size error would mean that she’s actually down—and poised to lose the Electoral College. Should we assume that same 2020 error is taking place in 2024? Post Jan 6th and post-Dobbs, post several other things … I’ll just say that Trump support will have to prove to me yet a third time that it’s being under-represented. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1486 "2024-08-29T14:45:51Z")
That article is certainly a depressing bit. FWIW it links to this as its source which is free. And lots of detail. > **[AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling\_Report-FNL.pdf](https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf)** > > 6.46 MB Bottom line though is that they don’t clearly understand why it was such a bad performance. Okay. You’ve succeeded in making me even more anxious! Thanks. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1487 "2024-08-29T14:55:56Z")
Excellent post. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1488 "2024-08-29T14:57:19Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > More generally, nationalist populism (mostly RW but some LW in Latin America - see Chavez, H.) has been on the upswing since the passing of the two-bloc geopolitical model c. 1990. > > Though IMO it had been there all along, WW2 and the Cold War merely shoved it to the wings for a while, but once the threat seemed gone, it was ready to come forth to fill the ideological vaccuum. Well said — I will point this out to my Political Geography students this semester. The most immediate and obvious example was the wars following the breakup of Yugoslavia — but, as you said, much of the resurgence of nationalism elsewhere was facilitated by this too. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1489 "2024-08-29T14:57:40Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Should we assume that same 2020 error is taking place in 2024? Post Jan 6th and post-Dobbs, post several other things … I’ll just say that Trump support will have to prove to me yet a third time that it’s being under-represented. > [@DSeid](#): > > Bottom line though is that they don’t clearly understand why it was such a bad performance. Okay. You’ve succeeded in making me even more anxious! Thanks. 🙂 I mean, this is the Straight Dope, fighting ignorance and all that stuff. I’m a big believer that understanding our world is always a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![veryfrank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/87869e/32.png) [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1490 "2024-08-29T15:10:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The popular vote result there was still concerning. To keep it on thread subject, the Right lost because other groups worked together to defeat them paying close attention to their equivalent of the Electoral College factors. We also need the center and left to work together and pay attention to where votes are. Sidebar as this reminded me…polling just came out here in Ontario, that the Conservative provincial government under Doug Ford, possibly the most corrupt administration I’ve seen in Canadian politics in my lifetime, is set to win a majority at the next election, partly thanks to there being two large left(ish)-of-centre parties and just the one conservative one. Worldwide, I see this and despair. As for the States, anyone still throwing support behind Jill Stein or Cornell West at the expense of a Democratic vote is either dumb as a bag of hammers or a GOP plant, I’m sure. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1491 "2024-08-29T15:23:48Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > I’m a big believer that understanding our world is always a good thing. In this case it is more a better appreciation of our not understanding! That report is very depressing in its recognition of the depths of our ignorance. Of their listed possible hypotheses several would be expected to repeat in 2024 (and would have been expected to not impact polling during 2022 midterms). Their conclusion explains the reason for the ignorance well: it is impossible to know much about those who did not respond by studying those who do. So yeah. He could win by polling being systematically off in a presidential cycle understating Trump support even to a much smaller degree than it did in 2020. We would need to be Harris up over 5 in PA for example to get over that possibility. Being scared is the rational place to be. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1492 "2024-08-29T15:27:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > We would need to be Harris up over 5 in PA for example to get over that possibility. Being scared is the rational place to be. Yup, we are no where close to where we need to be. I’m off to lunch and then every Thursday I man the local Dem HQ in my town. ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1493 "2024-08-29T15:56:45Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > This “thermodynamics” law has been holding us back for too long! This IS the country that almost passed a law that pi=3.2. Think of it! With a bigger value for Pi, cars are more efficient! They go further with each revolution! The gas savings alone would be…well, more that you can imagine! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1494 "2024-08-29T16:17:00Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > The election is a tie and Trump voters tend to under report in polls by about 4%. [madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28) linked to the Atlantic article I’ll mention. Yeah, polling in 2020 was off, so the pollsters reweighted things close that gap you mention. Who knows if they did it right or not. The Red Wave of 2022 never materialized. Maybe we are doing better than we think vis-a-vis the polls; maybe the opposite is true. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1495 "2024-08-29T16:30:48Z")
This kos diary addresses the Atlantic article and some polling failures since 2020: > **[Forget the polls! Here's why....](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/24/2265482/-Forget-the-polls-Here-s-why)** > > In a recent The Atlantic article, “The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers,” Ronald Brownstein delves into the challenges pollsters face in capturing the true sentiments of the electorate, particularly after significant misses in the 2016 and... ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1496 "2024-08-29T17:03:22Z")
I hate to be “that guy” but my takeaway from all those articles is that we simply can’t trust the polls to be very accurate, and we have no idea which way the errors will fall. Sure, in those cases where one candidate has a huge lead in the polls we can be fairly confident, but so many results at the presidential level are just too close to call. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1497 "2024-08-29T17:10:17Z")
Also, the article specifically is about polling when Trump is on the ballot, not special elections and congressional races. But you’re right, polling is a mess and we won’t have a way of knowing how much and in what direction until after the election. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1498 "2024-08-29T17:17:54Z")
I basically agree. I’m inclined to think that we have the upside (i.e., the polls are more likely to break our way) as we have all the positive factors on our side, and Trump has his base and a drone of fear-based messaging on his. Further, if things are looking up in Texas and Florida, can things be all that shitty in other places? I’m trying to see the big pic, but I don’t _know_ what will happen. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1499 "2024-08-29T17:22:01Z")
Yeah that is a horrible article. Best to read the source that the Atlantic article is based on. At least the summary and the conclusion section and maybe also the section on the state by state performances. It is sobering and that Kos gloss over take is one only possible without reading it. It is a strenuous effort to see what they want to see. All we can say with any confidence is that despite concerted effort to correct for Trump supporters relative non participation in polls the pollsters were systematically off both times Trump was on the ballot, worse in 2020. And the experts don’t really know why. They have dismissed multiple explanations but that doesn’t solve the problem. Maybe they have the correction right this time. Maybe behaviors have changed. Maybe they over correct this time. Maybe. But the track record is as @madmonk28 states. Being confident that it will other than that again would be a bit silly. Hopeful that it won’t be? Sure. So yes. Polls are nice. Leads in polls are nice. Leads in swing state polls are nice. And they may even reflect reality. We just can’t be very sure that they do. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1500 "2024-08-29T17:38:38Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > But you’re right, polling is a mess and we won’t have a way of knowing how much and in what direction until after the election. Well said. And here’s an example of a “flip” just from the last hour, which should probably quell the “break out them cigars, boys - he’s in an unrecoverable death spiral now” talk. > **[FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model)** > > All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. _ **Last update: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, August 29** :_ Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3. There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including [two](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/) new [polls](https://pinpointpolicyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Blue-Wall-States-Survey-Slides.pdf) today). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=74) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=76)