# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 76
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1501 "2024-08-29T17:59:04Z")
And just for the shits of it, here is Silver’s at the time take on 2020’s misses. > **[The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/)** > > I’m not a pollster, although I’m often misidentified as one on TV. I wanted to get that out of the way because while, in practice, our lives probably get easier… > [@](#): > > what’s important to stress here is even though the polls have now missed in the same direction twice in a row, this isn’t necessarily indicative of how polls will behave going forward. In the long run, while polls can be biased, the [bias isn’t predictable from cycle to cycle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/). Sometimes, they do miss in the same direction for a couple of cycles in a row. Other times, the bias flips around — in 2012, polls underestimated Obama and Democrats before underestimating Trump and Republicans in 2016. It’s probably worth mentioning that polls had a [_very_ good and unbiased year in the 2018 midterms](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/) before their problems this year, too. > > The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did [all sorts of dodgy things](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/uk-election-hung-parliament/) in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead). This sets up an especially big challenge for pollsters moving forward because [_some_ of the plausible explanations for the polling miss have to do with the COVID-19 pandemic](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/upshot/polls-what-went-wrong.html) or other factors specific to 2020, while some do not. > > Imagine that, in an effort to correct for the bias it showed in 2020, a pollster adopts a new technique that results in shifting its margins toward Republicans by 3 points — but it turns out that the bias was because of something 2020-specific. Then, the pollster may wind up with polling that underestimates Democrats in 2022 and 2024. But if the pollster chalks the error up to COVID-19 and doesn’t change anything when it _was_ something lasting, they may underestimate Republicans once again. 🥴 I agree that we don’t throw out polls or ignore them. But they are tools of only so much value. I’d rather my side ahead in them than behind and I believe the net directionality as they aggregate. But systemic errors _usually_ happen so confidence based on them can be misplaced. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1502 "2024-08-29T18:13:35Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Also, the article specifically is about polling when Trump is on the ballot, not special elections and congressional races. There’s a feeling of “fighting the last war” here. They’re trying to fix the errors they saw in the last election, on the assumption that they’ll see the same errors this time. I’m not sure that’s accurate. For example, I’m seeing reports that voter registrations in some key demographics have surged since Harris was put on the top of the ticket, but this hasn’t been reflected in any significant change in general polling. So, are the polls missing these people, or are the reports of a surge in registrations incorrect? Who knows? Not I, for certain. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1503 "2024-08-29T18:16:46Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > There’s a feeling of “fighting the last war” here. Of in this case the last two wars (2016 and 2020), besides Germany wouldn’t go through Belgium again, would they? ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1504 "2024-08-29T18:41:17Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > > [@madmonk28](#): > > > > But you’re right, polling is a mess and we won’t have a way of knowing how much and in what direction until after the election. > > Well said. And here’s an example of a “flip” just from the last hour, which should probably quell the “break out them cigars, boys - he’s in an unrecoverable death spiral now” talk. > > [FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model) > > _ **Last update: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, August 29** :_ Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3. > > There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including [two](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/) new [polls](https://pinpointpolicyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Blue-Wall-States-Survey-Slides.pdf) today) . Silver’s very next sentence: > The model is also applying a [convention bounce adjustment](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-big-will-the-bounce-be) to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. Both Silver and 538 are temporarily suppressing Harris’ poll numbers in their models to mitigate convention bounce. I’ll be interested to see both models after the September 10th debate, which happens to be about when the presumed convention effects will be removed from the models. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1505 "2024-08-29T18:51:45Z")
Trump also has the problem of “voter fatigue”. Even when not president he is always in your face and in the news. Harris is hardly new, but because voters don’t know her well she has some advantage of seeming like a breath of fresh air. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1506 "2024-08-29T20:04:30Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Trump also has the problem of “voter fatigue”. We have two hybrid candidates that have elements of both the incumbent and the challenger. It’s a weird dynamic that I don’t think we have seen in a presidential election since Nixon rose from the dead in 1968. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1507 "2024-08-29T20:05:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Which “they” do you reference here? The two people running the Votemaster. They exclude all polls that have in the past demonstrated a systematic partisan bias. If you read then daily, as I do, they have discussed this at considerable length. ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1508 "2024-08-29T20:06:46Z")
Other than polls what evidence is there that the race is close? She’s raised far more money in the last month that he did. She’s signed up far more volunteers. I haven’t heard anything about (X) for Trump Zoom calls raising millions of dollars. Her VP candidate is wildly popular, his is treated as a joke at best. You would think that will all the enthusiasm she’s generated his campaign team, or even his followers, would try to show there’s just as much enthusiasm on their side, and they haven’t. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1509 "2024-08-29T20:12:03Z")
> [@sciurophobic](#): > > Other than polls what evidence is there that the race is close? She’s raised far more money in the last month that he did. She’s signed up far more volunteers. Well, there’s past experience. We’ve seen this before in 2020 and the race was super close, even if the popular vote count was not. The swing states are super swingy. We know those will be close one way or the other. Trump having a million fewer (or more) votes in Alabama than 2020 or Harris having a million fewer (or more) votes in California than Biden did in 2020 won’t matter for the POTUS race. They will matter for downballot but not for the big chair. But either of them gaining or losing 30,000 votes in Pennsylvania or Minnesota or a few other states absolutely does matter. The race is close because it is a function of our electoral college system. Yes, you can use enthusiasm in those states to estimate chances of winning, but they are so close that the margins of error in such estimates are bigly HUGE. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1510 "2024-08-29T20:14:28Z")
When is the infamous IRS audit going to be done? Not that it matters because he still wouldn’t release the records because of … reasons. I guess Vance won’t release his because of… other reasons. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1511 "2024-08-29T20:35:53Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > Well, there’s past experience. We’ve seen this before Exactly. 2020, 2016, both close. Trump outspent two to one in 2016 and by roughly 50% more in 2020. Significant shifts might occur. But it is reasonable to not _expect_ such. Likely mostly the same people who voted Trump before will do so again. The election will mostly be decided by Harris getting turnout for her, against him, not as many against her, and a few swingable voters. Maybe that enthusiasm will accomplish that but … damn that maybe. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1512 "2024-08-29T21:20:49Z")
Yes, thats the point. Harris should be crushing Trump in the polls, but for some reason she isn’t. The great mystery is why. Are the polls wrong? Are Harris’s seeming advantages only a mirage? We just don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1513 "2024-08-29T21:25:23Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Harris should be crushing Trump in the polls, but for some reason she isn’t 50% of Americans are fascist assholes. I know, I still have trouble digesting that fact, too. But it’s plain as the nose on your face. Why keep trying to invent alternative explanations? I’ve tried and tried and tried, and I’ve just had it with that shit. Why keep beating your head against the wall about inaccuracy in _polls_, when actual **votes** in 2016 _AND_ 2020 demonstrated this to be true? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1514 "2024-08-29T21:33:14Z")
Sadly, you are correct! Not sure if it’s quite 50%, however. There is the evil factor, and then there is the stupid factor. Some people just always vote R and aren’t paying enough attention to what Trump is actually doing. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1515 "2024-08-29T21:35:31Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > 50% of Americans are fascist assholes. Exactly this. If you are friends with a Trump voter, you are friends with a fascist. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1516 "2024-08-29T21:40:57Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > If you are friends with a Trump voter, you are friends with a fascist. I’m blessed by the fact that I don’t know _any_ Trump voters, except my mother-in-law. She’s not a kind person, nor a bright one. My wife once tried to talk sense into her, it became a very heated “discussion,” the worst I’ve seen between them. Yes, she has an alternative factual record she thinks supports her position, but I have the feeling that the fox news bullshit is more to support her decision than to inform it. So, for those of us in very Blue America, the fact that 47% or so voters prefer Trump to Harris is unfathomable. I’d believe 10 to 15% perhaps. But here we are. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1517 "2024-08-29T21:41:20Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Yes, thats the point. Harris should be crushing Trump in the polls, but for some reason she isn’t. The great mystery is why. Are the polls wrong? Are Harris’s seeming advantages only a mirage? We just don’t know. Harris’s advantages are largely meaningless to close to half of the voting population, who have (a) already made up their minds, and (b) have allowed themselves to be convinced that _any_ Democrat will destroy the country as they know it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1518 "2024-08-29T21:41:24Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > - He instigated an insurrection and attack on the US Capitol. > - He illegally hoarded (and quite likely sold) top secret documents. > - He torpedoed a bipartisan immigration bill to suit his own political needs. > - He’s been indicted for extremely serious crimes. > - He’s been convicted of 34 felonies. > - His business organization has been found liable for fraud and fined a half billion dollars. This is what Republicans think: - No he didn’t. - No he didn’t. Witch hunt. - No he didn’t. - Witch hunt. - Witch hunt. - Witch hunt. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1519 "2024-08-29T22:03:49Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > For example, I’m seeing reports that voter registrations in some key demographics have surged since Harris was put on the top of the ticket, but this hasn’t been reflected in any significant change in general polling. So, are the polls missing these people, or are the reports of a surge in registrations incorrect? Who knows? Not I, for certain. Cenk of TYT weighs in on exactly this: > **[Kamala Harris Has a Huge Surge](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KatdsafX5_Q%2F)** > > Cenk Uygur goes deep into recent polling about the 2024 election. Help support our mission and get perks https://www.youtube.com/TheYoungTurks/joinYour Suppo... He’s quite positive on where we are at. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2024, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1520 "2024-08-29T22:09:26Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Yes, thats the point. Harris should be crushing Trump in the polls, but for some reason she isn’t. The great mystery is why. Are the polls wrong? Are Harris’s seeming advantages only a mirage? We just don’t know. She’s been the official nominee for all of a week. She’s been the de facto nominee for less than a month. She’s raised an ungodly amount of money, but she’s had precious little time yet to spend it. She took over a campaign apparatus that was geared toward the particular political needs of another candidate and had no campaign staff of her own until a couple weeks ago. By any reasonable standard, expecting that she should be crushing Trump in the polls right now is insane. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=75) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=77)