# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 83
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2024, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1641 "2024-09-01T23:31:22Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Because they believe in magic. Trump has a magical power to make eggs cheaper. Right. They see that food prices were cheaper, that Trump was President, and feed that through their conservative distortion filter (CDF) that says “democrats bad for economy, republicans good”, and they conclude that it was Biden and the Dems that made food prices go up. They ignore the ~4 years of global events that have shaped the economy and affected prices. They just want lower prices, they don’t know how to achieve them, but their CDF gives them the answer. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2024, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1642 "2024-09-01T23:40:52Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > …They see that food prices were cheaper, that Trump was President… I think it’s more that statistics are manipulated by propaganda that is fed to people who internalize misinformation. They aren’t considering food prices from 2020. From their own memory, that time sucked. Rather, talking heads are _telling them_ technically true things (food prices were lower under Trump) _completely lacking in context_ (nobody could go anywhere and you were likely out of work or facing a salary cut, and the eventual inflation can be blamed on Trump’s bad policies), which they are regurgitating. Back when I spoke to my Trump loving cousin, he told me he _didn’t want to hate Biden_. But he gets home and “watches the news…” These people think the ranting and raving on right wing media is _news_. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2024, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1643 "2024-09-01T23:47:44Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Isn’t it possible that some folks support Trump for reasons other than evilness? The only other reason is that they are very stupid and are enabling actual evil people due to their fucking idiocy. I guess that’s marginally better ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1644 "2024-09-02T00:46:34Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > The only other reason is that they are very stupid and are enabling actual evil people due to their fucking idiocy. The nuance being that people can be very dumb in this area but otherwise smart and capable people. I know plenty of Trump supporters who are otherwise successful. It just seems they have no critical thinking skills when faced with news. Personally, I don’t get it. I _think_ they’d see a con man and charlatan for what he was, were some such person to come to the office. Somehow, the filter of the media totally erodes their analytical abilities. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1645 "2024-09-02T00:56:09Z")
Yeah, this is it. A big chunk of the 70 million people who vote for Trump are lawyers, doctors, engineers, pilots, scientists, mathematicians, programmers, accountants, etc. - folks who are not low in IQ by any means. The heart overrules the brain, basically. Or, the brain can be forced to go along with, and rationalize, what the heart wants. Logic doesn’t hold a candle to emotion in terms of action-power. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1646 "2024-09-02T01:01:23Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The heart overrules the brain, basically. So basically like (but bad?!): https://open.spotify.com/embed/track/4564B2IZMGBvVH958a2nsW?utm_source=oembed ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1647 "2024-09-02T01:21:10Z")
Looking at both 538 and RealClearPolitics, Harris did not get a convention bounce. Or, if she did, it was a fraction of one percent. She did get a bounce before the convention. But public opinion is not trending towards Harris. It is impossible to say who would win the election if today, and there’s no sign of that changing. Trump made a mistake in not firing Vance last month. But everyone make mistakes - he may win anyway. ’ ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1648 "2024-09-02T02:14:55Z")
Excellent summary of the current situation (I’m sad to say). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1649 "2024-09-02T04:34:03Z")
> [@The\_Librarian](#): > > That is because anyone actually voting for Trump, is voting to cancel basic human rights, destroy US democracy, destroy the US economy, the environment. All to _hurt_ the right people. The vast majority of them are absolutely convinced the Democratic Party wants to cancel freedom of speech, destroy the Republic, and destroy the economy. They think YOU’RE the evil side. They think Trump stands for democracy, freedom and justice, along with his friends Kennedy, Musk and Tucker Carlson. They truly, honestly believe that. You don’t have to believe it, I sure don’t. But they DO. Accept it. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump made a mistake in not firing Vance last month. Trying to get rid of Vance - which he can’t do easily, as Vance was nominated per party rules, and is not Trump’s employee to fire at will - would have been a disastrously stupid move. It would have made them look terrible for no real advantage. Vance is popular amongst Trumpists and won’t lose Trump any votes. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1650 "2024-09-02T04:46:44Z")
e.g.: [![](https://i.imgur.com/jICOFhn.jpeg?fb) ](https://i.imgur.com/jICOFhn.jpeg?fb) ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1651 "2024-09-02T07:26:46Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Isn’t it possible that some folks support Trump for reasons other than evilness? Oh, _this_ outta be good… ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1652 "2024-09-02T07:45:02Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The vast majority of them are absolutely convinced the Democratic Party wants to cancel freedom of speech, destroy the Republic, and destroy the economy. They think YOU’RE the evil side. They think Trump stands for democracy, freedom and justice, along with his friends Kennedy, Musk and Tucker Carlson. In my opinion, this is the greater factor (fear of the ‘Left’), rather than enthusiasm for what Trump represents. I do frequent a ‘right-leaning’ blog that’s more focused on Australia/New Zealand (I live in NZ) and it occasionally has comments about the US. Some of the vitriol aimed at Kamala Harris is extremely petty (the ‘cackling’, not doing interviews enough), but most of it is about how Democrats will tank the economy and force wokedom on everyone. There’s a massive blind spot of course (Trump’s import tariffs for example are _never_ mentioned), while posters will pick up on the tiniest slip by Harris as a ‘word salad’. I believe it’s all driven by fear - certainly not by any objective policy comparison. And if you don’t need to examine your own policy (or whatever brain fart passes for policy in TrumpWorld), then that’s a nice comfy place of ignorance to reside in. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1653 "2024-09-02T11:06:19Z")
Here’s a good article about the various shenanigans the GOP is using to try and siphon votes from Harris using third-party candidates like West. It’s a wide-ranging and frightening effort. It will be hard to beat this kind of organization. > **[GOP network propping up liberal third-party candidates in key states](https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2024/09/gop-network-propping-up-liberal-third-party-candidates-in-key-states.html)** > > They're propping up third-party candidates such as Cornel West and Jill Stein in the hopes that those candidates will siphon off votes from Democrat Kamala Harris. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1654 "2024-09-02T14:38:13Z")
Re the fear factor: There’s truly being afraid of something, and then there’s _pretending_ or _choosing_ to be afraid of something so as to form a community, political party, etc., based on that. I think the GOP is engaged much more in the latter than in the former. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1655 "2024-09-02T14:50:58Z")
**A Communique From Trump Country :** Lawn signs are rare. There are still a few, and big ones. Bumper stickers exist, but fewer cars, although those cars are _plastered_ with them. The Bloom is off the Rose. ---
**Author:** ![Jihi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jihi/32/17768_2.png) [@Jihi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jihi)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1656 "2024-09-02T16:05:36Z")
Reporting in from Central michigan. Battleground state of course. I live in a small college town that is basically pretty liberal. But there’s a very strong strain of trumpism around here, particularly if you go out into the rural areas. I started seeing Trump signs around me popping up about a month or so ago. Harris signs shortly after that but not as many. I have my own Harris/Walz sign in the mail should be here within a week or so. There are a not insignificant number of homes around here that have gigantic Trump signs up all year long. So it’s hard to tell sometimes what new or existing enthusiasm, versus old habits. Overall Trump enthusiasm _seems_ to be down, but it’s hard to gauge objectively. My understanding is Michigan’s polls are generally trending in Harris’s direction though. That would seem to fit. And I’m pretty much in the middle of a battleground area. I was also in Traverse City about a week ago. Pete Buttigieg’s hometown currently. And there was a ton of support for Harris there. Complete with a public demonstration in the local park I happened to drive past. Good signs there. Again this is based on personal opinion and observation, so take with a grain of salt. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1657 "2024-09-02T16:07:55Z")
I’ve noticed far, far fewer Trump signs in Scottsdale than in the past few elections. There’s one guy with a huge Trump flag, but he’s always flown some asshole flags, election or not. All the other houses that used to have signs are barren. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1658 "2024-09-02T16:57:14Z")
They have Trump signs on their hearts. ---
**Author:** ![blondebear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blondebear/32/1022_2.png) [@blondebear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blondebear)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1659 "2024-09-02T17:34:12Z")
I was watching a youtube live stream the other day and one of the people in the comment thread was using a “Trump 2024” badge as their avatar. They weren’t making MAGA-type comments, but every time the host responded to them the avatar was displayed on the screen. The channel content and host are strictly apolitical so this seemed a bit inappropriate to me. I felt the urge to complain but thought better of it. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1660 "2024-09-02T17:48:45Z")
Per a Harris advocate, she is winning amongst older voters, a death knell for his campaign. > [@](#): > > new polling indicates that something like a silver wave may be building as November approaches. > > Consider, for instance, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll last week that found the biggest lead yet for [Kamala Harris](https://www.rollingstone.com/t/kamala-harris/) — a[seven point national edge that came largely from her 16-point lead among people over the age of 65.](https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/) On Thursday, a Suffolk University poll for _USA Today_ found Harris[leading](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/8_29_2024_national_tables_embargoed_1.pdf?la=en&hash=301CB7E392803B359673125AC2A58CC7CFE0061B) Trump 53-42 among voters over 60 — her largest vote share of any demographic. And it’s the same in many of the swing states: A New York Times/Siena College poll[showed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-arizona-likely-electorate.html) her with a modest lead among older voters in Arizona — and there are a lot of older voters in Arizona. In North Carolina, another swing state crowded with retirees, she’s[up by 10 points](https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6368b805-bffe-45d6-bfff-c3e2cbd2d222) among older voters. In Maine, statistically the oldest state in the union,[Harris led](https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1809&context=survey_center_polls) by 20 points among older voters. In Vermont, the second-oldest state, 61 percent of older voters[thought](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-cognitive-decline-poll-vermont-1942907)Trump’s mental and physical health were “very poor,” higher than any other group. (Which is worth thinking about — if anyone’s an expert on gauging decline, it’s those of us who see it around us regularly, and perhaps sense it in ourselves). Wishful thinking? Perhaps. > [@](#): > > There are enough polls out there that you can find the opposite too — the last[_Washington Post_ poll](https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6368b805-bffe-45d6-bfff-c3e2cbd2d222), now almost two weeks old, shows Trump[beating](https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6368b805-bffe-45d6-bfff-c3e2cbd2d222) Harris by two points among older voters, and a Pell Center poll[had him up by 3](https://www.pellcenter.org/harris-leads-trump-by-4-nationally-but-with-wide-variation-by-age-ethnicity-and-u-s-regional-cultures/). > **[Will a Silver Wave Help Elect Kamala Harris?](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/donald-trump-kamala-harris-silver-wave-1235093394/)** > > Polls suggest Donald Trump can’t count on older voters this November. Here’s why. Still, it’s a nice thought. Older voters - many of whom were once 60s radicals - aren’t enamored with Trump. And when you lose old people, you have a real hard time winning the election. > [@](#): > > … I think deeper cultural forces are also at play — the muscle memory, the generational DNA, that was formed in that remarkable period of social, cultural, and political transformation that was the 1960s. It was the apex of the civil rights campaigns, the rise of the women’s movement, the first Earth Day. As the political analyst Nate Cohn [pointed out](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/06/upshot/older-voters.html)earlier this year, we’re not Archie Bunker — that’s our dads. We’re Meathead. We’ve lived with the freedoms of _Roe v. Wade_ and the protections of the Clean Air Act, and it’s been disconcerting to watch the Supreme Court strip them away… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=82) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=84)