# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 87
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1721 "2024-09-03T20:32:47Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > It skews conservative. You are cherry picking facts to feed your conclusions. Funny how you cut from the quote you cited > [@Aeschines](#): > > Plus, I said “thrashed” based on the totality of polling, not just that one. Which included > [@Aeschines](#): > > And here’s a video about a bunch of polls if you want to get into it: Which shows 4 national polls with Harris up 3 points from before and at least 5 over Trump, out of 4 polls. ABC poll has Harris 6 points over Trump. Also favoribility rankings for Harris, Walz, Trump, and Vance, with Harris and Walz up, and Trump and Vance down. Trump is down 25 points from before. Voter enthusiasm to vote in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia all have Dems with higher enthusiasm than Reps. If I see cherry picking, it’s not coming from @Aeschines. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1722 "2024-09-03T20:36:49Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > because a lot of Americans are fascists Look at that Pew study. Yes a lot are. Especially among those in the center. Go figure. But more are not. Decrease Trump’s ability to activate them by mocking him, gently. Decrease the activation of resentment by appreciating the fact that non college educated males _are_ in fact being left behind, and offering bridges for them as well. And activate the majority who can be activated by more positive messaging. That is how Trump doe NOT win. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1723 "2024-09-03T21:06:36Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Voter enthusiasm to vote in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia all have Dems with higher enthusiasm than Reps. Maybe I am looking at the wrong measure of enthusiasm, but I do not see why that’s positive (or negative). If fundraising is a good measure of enthusiasm, the time Trump had less enthusiasm (2016, outspent 2-1) is the time he won. If [crowd size is the measure](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/does-crowd-size-matter-mccain-hopes-not/): > [@](#): > > John Kerry had huge crowds in 2004, and George McGovern famously outdrew Richard Nixon in the 1972 race, only to go on to win a single state in the election. Also: [Republican Barry Goldwater thought he would beat President Johnson because he often drew bigger crowds.](https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2008/02/15/is-crowd-size-size-vote/24042468007/) My first link above notes that Obama drew big crowds. But that just shows enthusiasm doesn’t stop you from winning. It doesn’t show that enthusiasm helps. The people I know who will vote for Trump admit he is a flawed candidate — and human being. The people I know who plan to vote for Harris think she’s an excellent candidate. Despite this enthusiasm gap, Trump may still win. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1724 "2024-09-03T21:14:35Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Highly RW biased poll Rasmussen now has Harris up +1. Is there a cite for this besides the video? If true, this is a big deal – being up one point in Rasmussen Reports is equivalent to really being up 5 or 6 points nationally. For those only following casually, **[Harris had several +5 to +7 point national polls in her favor in the days immediately after the convention](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)**. While I’ve held off on spotlighting those polls because of an assumed post-convention bounce, she got another +5 and two +4s nationally last week as well as a recent +3 nationally from Rasmussen Media Group (Scott Rasmussen’s second enterprise after founding/leaving Rasmussen Reports). As for “struggling in Pennsylvania”: **[Republican-funded pollsters Trafalgar Group and Red Eagle Politics have put out some Trump-plus polls since the convention](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/)** that have blown the curve for Harris a bit. Earlier in the month, there were Bullfinch and Quinnipiac polls that had Harris +3 to +4 in PA, and the post-convention Morning Consult PA polls had Harris in that range as well. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1725 "2024-09-03T21:20:34Z")
Thanks for taking the time to summarize the polls! Yes, they looking good for us. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1726 "2024-09-03T21:21:22Z")
@ [bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond) Here is a cite for the Rasmussen poll: > **[Kamala Harris takes lead against Donald Trump in conservative poll](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-rasmussen-poll-1948012)** > > The vice president has a narrow 1-point lead over the Republican in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey. I think we’re going to see things bounce back nicely pretty soon in PA. The positive demographic polling doesn’t square well with anemic numbers in that state. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1727 "2024-09-03T21:25:29Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Rasmussen is known as a highly biased poll favoring Trump Just a note for the house regarding references to Rasmussen: There are two Rasmussen polls out there, both outfits founded by pollster Scott Rasmussen. Rasmussen founded **Rasmussen Reports** in 2003 and left the company in 2013. Rasmussen Reports continues to this day. Shortly after leaving Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen founded the **Rasmussen Media Group** , or RMG. Rasmussen is with RMG to this day. Polling aggregation websites like FiveThirtyEight normally call Rasmussen Media Group’s poll “RMG Research” to avoid confusion with Rasmussen Reports. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1728 "2024-09-03T21:32:19Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Oh, and vengeance and retribution. Can’t forget the stuff he enjoys. That’s pretty much his entire policy after all. No kidding. What policy is Trump actually _FOR_? I mean, he changes his mind depending on which way the evil windmill blows. The only two policies the Republicans have now are grievance and vengeance. Grievance, vengeance and retribution. Three policies. Grievance, vengeance, retribution and a fanatical devotion to racists. FOUR policies. Sorry, I’ll come in again. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1729 "2024-09-03T21:37:00Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Here is a cite for the Rasmussen poll Newsweek didn’t link back to the original poll on Rasmussen Reports’ website, and I can’t find it over there. Maybe the poll result was leaked? RealClear Polling regularly posts and links to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly Trump vs Harris poll. I will wait for that update. Newsweek reports 380 respondents to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Is that Pennsylvania only? Their national polls are always in the 1800-2000 respondent range. Something seems off. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1730 "2024-09-03T21:37:11Z")
:Sigh: you totally forgot revenge. And well, hurting others IS the point of pretty much all they do. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1731 "2024-09-03T21:40:33Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Thanks for taking the time to summarize the polls! Yes, they looking good for us. They aren’t that great, actually. As has been mentioned in this thread, Trump tends to underperform about 4% in polls compared to how he does on Election Day, so Harris up by 3 could very well mean she’s down by 1. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1732 "2024-09-03T21:48:59Z")
TIL! Thank you for that. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1733 "2024-09-03T21:49:37Z")
The polls have been reweighted since 2020, so that “tend to” is not known to be true at this point. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1734 "2024-09-03T21:56:24Z")
Did you see \*\*Dseid’s \*\* post linking to the report on what went wrong with polling in previous elections? They don’t know understand why they off, so they may or may not have fixed them. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1735 "2024-09-03T22:04:02Z")
By your implied logic, _any_ kind of data point can be invalidated, since one can always find a case in which someone was doing better in terms of that data point but lost anyway. Right-brain thinking is required in analyzing a race such as this. The big picture. And my own big picture, as expressed in the OP and subsequent posts, is that Trump is doing nothing right and not succeeding in any particular measure (except certain polls, but not on the whole), but he _could_ still win by limping over the finish line with just enough support in swing states. I absolutely do not think it’s possible for him to vastly outperform the polls and blow Harris away in swing states. In contrast, Harris could limp over the finish line in the swing states–or she _could_ blow Trump away in them _and_ pick up a few unexpected states as well. What I _do not_ buy as any type of realistic big picture is one in which Trump is doing well. He and his campaign are a shitshow right now. In 2016, they were not. Thus, trying to calibrate how he’s doing right now vis-a-vis 2016 and concluding that he’s in an every better position, etc. Nuh unh. No way. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1736 "2024-09-03T22:05:38Z")
I did. They basically don’t know what they’re doing right now, since it’s impossible to know how to weight their samples accurately. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1737 "2024-09-03T22:12:30Z")
I tried talking to my Son in Law yesterday about trump. He could see how emotional and anxious I am about this. I know he likes trump and his mother and father are fans so I don’t stand much chance of changing his mind, but I thought I’d try a different tack. I talked about the odds of trump serving his full term given his age and obesity and how that would result in a vance term. I told him all of the horrible things vance has said about women including about IVF, which his wife wanted but could not afford. They have adopted their 3 kids and two of them are mixed race, one more obviously brown. None of it mattered. His excuse for vance is well, he’s catholic. He doesn’t believe trump will really try to deport millions, especially not his son. I’m despondent for sure. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1738 "2024-09-03T22:16:18Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I did. They basically don’t know what they’re doing right now, since it’s impossible to know how to weight their samples accurately. I will say this much: Nate Silver is equivocating like a m.f. right now. His overall model numbers put Trump in front (“_But it’s still a toss-up!_”, Silver hedges). But then **[he puts out hedges](https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump)** **[worthy of Versailles](https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election)** with some regularity. I guess if you put Silver in a half nelson and slammed him against his locker, he’d admit “_I just. Don’t. KNOW!!!_” – but that doesn’t give pause to those using his forecasts _du jour_ as perfect oracles into November’s outcome. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1739 "2024-09-03T22:48:52Z")
Exactly, we don’t know, one thing is sure is that Harris hasn’t put up some insurmountable lead. She may be slightly ahead, she may be behind. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2024, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1740 "2024-09-03T23:02:25Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Maybe I am looking at the wrong measure of enthusiasm, but I do not see why that’s positive (or negative). > > If fundraising is a good measure of enthusiasm, the time Trump had less enthusiasm (2016, outspent 2-1) is the time he won. I didn’t say fundraising. I didn’t say crowd size. I said enthusiasm to vote. That’s will you go vote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=86) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=88)