# How can Donald Trump win at this point?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\
**Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 3019

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3019 "2024-10-21T00:50:50Z")

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> [@Aeschines](#):
>
> The canceled Red Wave of 2022 is a very strong narrative. It’s been debunked? Sincere request: direct me to a good starter post in the polls thread, and I will read.

Start from here.

> [@Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/234):
>
> You mean … omigosh! Polls did not call every race right?!!! It is not a quibble to dispute the false narrative of a predicted Red wave, especially when it is being used to imply that polls are predictably skewed in a direction. Reality check as linked a bit above: polls almost always systemically err one way or the other, in Senate race 5.4%, and House races 6.1% on average. Both directions occur apparently randomly. ‘22 was actually a better performing year than usual.

‘22 was as on the money for polling as it gets. Some pundits selected polls that allowed them to tell a narrative that drove clicks, but the forecasts based on the aggregated polling were amazingly good.

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