# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 3305
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3305 "2024-10-28T00:33:40Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > In 2020 Biden won MI by 154,000 votes. In 2020 there were 206,000 registered Muslim voters in the state. 71% or 146,260 of them cast ballots in that election with a large majority of them going to Biden. Given the closeness of this race, if most of them sit out the race, vote 3rd party or go to Trump that will spell serious trouble for the Harris campaign. It would be a mistake to dismiss them. And they can easily have the impact overestimated. [Best estimate](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians) is that Biden took the Arab vote 64 to 35. IF that instead goes down to 40 40 and 20% Stein then it is a net impact of 45K. Not insignificant in a very tight state if it happens. Under 1% but it could be a critical number. But we don’t really have good data that that is going to happen when push comes to shove. The data we have mostly comes from The Arab Institute which may have a particular bias and message they want to send. Still it might happen. The desire to punish is a big one, but many also will I suspect hold their nose and vote for who they see as the lesser evil if they know sending a message may result in a very much worse outcome. If they think their vote critically matters. There are also 130K Jewish voters in MI. _Some_ of whom could be pushed to vote Trump depending on the messages sent. It also is unclear if _any_ messaging would win those who have decided to punish Harris back. AND you have PA with one of the nation’s highest Jewish populations, 5%. A mixed crowd of opinions but risking them in PA is a sizable offset. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351)._