Especially once she gets her hands on the Epstein files.
The atoll is still not safe yet.
Does anyone know when the polls should reflect debate fallout?
Dunno. What’s the half-life of a poll?
Some polls that took place after the debate are trickling in, by early next week we should have a significant number of polls post debate.
November 5th
The two back so far are both up one to two over predebate numbers (both now up 5). More to come to have a real sense.
Most debate fallout will show up in polls released the week of September 16th. Polls released week of the 23rd will reflect about as much fallout as is coming.
I think it’s worth noting that most people don’t watch debates and instead gather their impressions of the result from the media coverage that follows, and even most, I would say, of the people who do watch the debate are influenced in their opinion by those headlines, and consequently the impact on the polls will not be measured from the day of or the day after the debate, but from the days following as the media narrative coalesces. Therefore, I would expect a lag of some further days before the effect of the emerging consensus is felt in the polling. And if the current discussion about Trump being a laughingstock over the pet stuff solidifies into The Result, then polls from a week or so after the debate are the ones that will matter.
Well the poll on Election Day is the one that matters… 
If there was any chance in hell that this disgusting man could bang anyone we would be having rumors like this every single week. And there would have been a ton of scandals during his time in office. She is certainly cozying up to him, but Barron was his last hurrah.
Being in a non-battleground state and area I have not been hit with many ads. The few I have seen from Trump or MAGA PACs have been pretty well targeted.
Getting back to the question of how can Trump win at this point it goes back to that old question, are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? Loomer doesn’t matter. The debate doesn’t matter. Most of the ridiculous things out of Trumps mouth don’t matter. Most people vote selfishly. If they feel their own personal circumstances were better then they will vote accordingly. The ads that I saw are hammering that point. It was the first question they asked Harris and she fumbled it like she had no idea that most basic question was coming. She didn’t even try to answer it she just veered into a pre-planned answer to a different question.
I know she wasn’t president but she can’t divorce herself from the Biden presidency. In the weeks ahead if Trump gets enough people in the right states thinking they are worse off now after the Biden/Harris administration he wins. That’s the burden of a VP running for president. They have to own the policies that weren’t theirs and defend actions they might not have taken if it was their choice.
Four years ago I sewed a face mask out of an old bedsheet and was worried about being able to buy toilet paper.
I seriously don’t get the nostalgia for four years ago.
There is some aspect of the public thinking that Trump can’t be blamed for the impact of Covid. But he really can. He did not create Covid but his mismanagement without question made it spread more and have worse impact.
A look back in time -
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/07/trump-coronavirus-management-style-123465
I get that repetition Covid management is not a good tactic when trying to take to centrists and undercut his margins in groups favorable to him. But damn.
Voters who find Trump appealing at a non-verbal emotional level have to come up with words to justify their feeling. This is intellectually difficult so you cannot expect for them to do a good job.
A certain number of those doing a bad job at justifying their pro-Trump feelings will wind up voting against him. If someone asks me about Trump’s good economy, my response might be — do you want Trump to do to our town what he did to Springfield? Will that work? Not likely. But telling them that their rationalization is wrong definitely won’t work.
I suspect that the nostalgia is actually for five years ago (i.e., the first three years of Trump’s presidency), conveniently ignoring the train wreck that was 2020, and, as noted, willingly giving Trump a pass because the virus was “not his fault” (though mismanagement of the nation’s response certainly was).
It boils down to, do you feel poorer now or then? The effect of inflation can not be ignored or deminished. Too often things like that are dismissed by saying “Well I don’t feel that way.” Ok great, you’re already voting for Harris. Many voters will vote due to their own selfish interests and that mostly turns out to be money.
Since Trump basically gutted nearly every protection put in place by Obama, then why didn’t the Trump economy do dramatically better than it was under Obama. If you make a deal with the devil, it’s supposed to be for a huge payoff. But look at the trend lines.
Obama inherited an economy like the plane ride that Sully Sullenberger took. Rather than just land the plane on the Hudson River, Obama got the plane back to 37,000 feet … level flight. And he did it without shredding environmental protections or worker rights, disproving yet another in an endless series of ‘False Choice’ arguments.
He handed over the keys to Trump, who – despite gutting many of those hard-fought protections – left the economy in the Hudson while he sauntered back to the main cabin to try to get the passengers to viciously turn on each other.
I caught myself in some recently - “boy if we could get 2020 loan and labor rates we could re-do our kitchen” then I remembered “we thought about it at the time, but were too terrified to have anyone else in our house.”
Edit: To be clear, it gave me a genuine pause to realize how easy it was to look back remembering what was “good” back then in the face of a current problem (the prices) while the full emotional trauma of lockdown had faded into the hindsight/retrospect and took some moments to recall (since our family all came out of it ok).
This is a big part. The pre-pandemic economy was great, inflation was low, employment high. A snapshot of prices that someone thinks about (gas, milk, eggs, eating out) shows they cost more. Interest rates are high, and inflation has been high, but while it isn’t growing now, the effect of inflation is prices are up. At least that’s the perception.
Obama helmed the recovery from the recession. Trump rode the recovery trajectory to its summit. He gets credit for the summit that was largely the result of Obama’s policies.
A second very important aspect is that they are quick to overlook the pandemic when it comes to Trump, but not when it comes to Biden. Biden took over a slumped global economy with supply chain issues still tangled up. He was fighting for an economic recovery and trying to stave off another recession.
And then Russia invaded Ukraine. Republicans seem to ignore that fact. They equate that with the war in Afghanistan, but they are not equivalent.
For starters, Ukraine is a global exporter of food. It has been called “the breadbasket of Europe”. The war has a direct impact on Ukraine harvesting and selling crops, driving food prices up. That is completely ignored by Republicans.
Second, sanctions were imposed on Russia that include buying Russian oil and natural gas. Europe was heavily dependent on Russian energy, and weaning off was hard. That made global energy prices go up. Translation: had prices shot up dramatically. “Damn Biden for shutting down oil and coal production, now our prices have gone up.”
Third is the decades of myth about democrats versus republicans on the economy. “Democrats tax and spend and regulate, stifling the economy and giving high taxes. Republicans cut regulations to allow free market and cut taxes and don’t give our all those handouts to lazy people.”
Those myths color their expectations, and when outcomes of the real economy happen to coincidentally match those expectations, it reinforces the myths.
So, Trump gets credit for Obama’s economy but not blamed for the effects of covid on the economy. Biden is blamed for the covid economy and the Russian war economy that he didn’t cause. And people have selection bias in remembering things.
So, I agree that Harris missed an opportunity at the debate to talk real economy. But the debate might not have been the right forum. But what needs to happen now is for her and her surrogates to go after this with real answers about the economy.
Some people will have sex with other for money or influence, no matter how disgusting. Remember, a porn star had sex with trump.
Are bodies being stacked up in refrigerator trucks? Are millions of small business closing their doors due to a badly managed pandemic?
Yep.
Why should she? The economy is the best we have had in decades. Violent crime is way down. Biden has been a fabulous president.
Yes. Experts have been quoted that the mismanagement of the pandemic caused anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3 extra deaths. Let us take the middle- 1/2. So trump is responsible for the deaths of 500000 americans, what with his lies about masking, bleach, horse dewormer, attacks on Fauci and whatnot. Not to mention closing the department tasked with pandemics- right before we had one.
And so? The president does not control inflation. There are normal cycles. And of course incomes increased along with prices. Not to mention- profit grabbing- one grocery chain saw 8% higher profits- they raided the prices MORE than inflation, knowing that the rubes whould blame inflation. Inflation is now under control.
Unemployment was no better during the first three years than it is now, in fact a little worse, 2017= 4.1%, 2018= 3.9, 2019 3.6, 2020 = 6.7%. 2022= 3.5, 2023 3.7. In no trump years did it get as low as the lowest Biden year, and the average was slightly higher.
Note also in the Obama years inflation was down to 0.7%, and altho yeah trump enjoyed three decent years, it was still about 2.3 % in 2019. In other words, it was on the rise.
Exactly.