Well, Trump is no scholar of the Constitution yet I recall him applying pressure on Pence to not certify. And when Pence didn’t ISTR Trump was angry and somehow pulled Pence’s secret service detail so he was left out in the cold like Pelosi, etc…;
I definitely recall Al Gore had to sign or bang a gavel or something. Perhaps ceremonial yet he did it. And he’d conceded just after the Supreme Court ruled there’d be no more recounts. Bush “won” Florida by 537 votes.
Yes, it’s depressing, but put it in context. I just read (maybe here) that urban areas make up about 4% of our country’s real estate—but 62% of our population. (Hope I’m remembering that correctly…)
I skipped the last 150 posts, but I still am of the opinion that trump will win. In fact he cannot lose.
Because of the in-built advantages of the R party and the number of people who, when faced with this ballot:
Will choose the (R) every time with zero thought really given to who that (R) really is.
Plus of course the 20-25% of Americans who desperately truly want a Fascist government. Or at least have been brainwashed by Faux, QAnon, etc., into believing that they do. And they believe that with all their might.
The electoral map certainly makes rural state votes more powerful than states with more population in cities.
And while FL is currently considered red Biden actually only lost it by 1.2%. It was considered swing until recent cycles. IF Democrats can claw back some rural support the map could shift fairly dramatically. Not this cycle maybe but …
The polls do not seem to support this contention.
If the Dems win all the swing states plus North Carolina, that would be an electoral blowout. But I think the big prize is Texas: winning that would take some air out of the far-right sails.
Walz was a good choice: twitter-left poses as more leftie than thou, but the big goal should be to frame progressive politics as normal. It helps that in fact, it is. But that’s not sufficient if we want to protect our 240 year experiment with democracy (or avoid climate catastrophe).
A degree of Nazism will survive Trump. Republican Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance has written admiring blurbs for a book that argues that leftists aren’t really human. Michelle Goldberg, quoted by John Ganz:
The word “fascist” gets thrown around a lot in politics, but it’s hard to find a more apt one for “Unhumans,” which came out last month. The book argues that leftists don’t deserve the status of human beings — that they are, as the title says, unhumans — and that they are waging a shadow war against all that is good and decent, which will end in apocalyptic slaughter if they are not stopped. “As they are opposed to humanity itself, they place themselves outside of the category completely, in an entirely new misery-driven subdivision, the unhuman,” write Posobiec and Lisec.
Far right influencer Jack Posobiec is a recurring character that readers of Talking Points Memo might recall: he, “Was a prominent advocate of the “Stop The Steal” movement and the thoroughly debunked “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory.” The Romney type politicians were sidelined years ago within the conservo-sphere. The crazies are in charge, competing for clicks and attention if not always votes.
Look at @Measure_for_Measure’s map and get back to us. National polls are meaningless because that is not the contest being waged. It should be, but it isn’t. Because we still have this primitive 18th century EC thing going on in this country.
What matters are polls in the very few counties in the very few states that might go either way.
The various electoral threads here are full of lefties keeping their heads down if they live in right-leaning areas. There is some fraction of the opposite going on too.
There are also enough R-led states where the state government cannot be trusted to accurately count the ballots. And enough R-led states where they may well prevent Ds from voting in significant numbers by various last minute Election Day shenanigans. Such that an honest count of the ballots cast will show a dishonest total versus the intention of all the willing voters.
Between all that and the number of (IMO terminally stupid) Ds who’ll refuse to vote because Harris / Walz is not their dream ticket, or the party platform isn’t their dream platform, this election is very much trump’s to lose. And he’s not doing it that I can see.
Dang, I HOPE your location is skewing your view!
Well, he didn’t do himself any favors at the Black Journalists convention in Chicago. And he will probably not help his cause if he debates Harris.
Which, of course, is why he won’t debate her.
Every word of what you said is how I feel. If Tuesday, November 5th goes “well”, then I think an “ok now, How can the disgraced Celebrity Apprentice host win at this point?” would be a great discussion to have on November 6th - having this on August 6th makes me more nervous than I already was.
I have the same white-hot hate and share the same opinions of the Apprentice guy as the OP does, but if I’m ever pitching a no-hitter in Game 7 of the World Series I don’t want him congratulating me in the dugout or asking for my autograph during the 6th inning; or if I’m ever sitting with 20 at a Blackjack table vs a Dealer 4, I don’t want him patting me on the back telling me there’s no way in hell I can lose now.
“Us,” lol. Check out the aggregators and professional political analysts and get back to me.
Hint: Nate Silver has Harris ahead right now.
That doesn’t mean that Trump is definitely going to win. But there is no justification for saying there is no way he can lose.
Trumpers are kinda rare in my zipcode. Like all other states, the rural areas here in FL are hard red and the populated areas are blue-ish purple.
I am of the opinion that if the full Commission on Presidential Debates schedule (3 with Harris-Trump, 1 for the veeps) was implemented, the Democratic ticket would get a bounce every time, and wind up on top:
Irony is that the very action which allowed creation of a strong Democratic ticket (debating in June) is letting Trump minimize the debate loses that would likely sink his chances.
Harris may still win, but with no October debate bounce, it will be iffy.
The thing I see a lot in threads like this is imputing “overconfidence,” “overoptimism,” etc., to anyone doing analysis and commentary without their hair on fucking fire in panic.
Acting as though reporting any positive facts or saying things look positive will jinx the outcome is nothing more than superstition.
I think things are looking good for Harris/Walz right now, but the situation is too chaotic to be confident about any outcome.
Texas (Trump plus over 5 last time) is a heavier lift than Florida. I’ve been guilty in past cycles of dreaming about it but this cycle, nah.
Lots of views based on what polls of the moment are saying. One could always adopt the Allan Lichtman approach. He’s correctly predicted Presidential elections since 1984 using a ‘13 keys’ approach in which polls play no role. He had Biden winning six months ago. He’s got Harris winning now.
Yeah not going to happen. Texas is getting tighter than before but 5 points is still a huge deficit to overcome. It’s going to Trump this year.
That’s some pretty fine-grained prognostication, though I agree that the debates will help her. Probably a lot.
My main objection is that we’ll know a lot more in two weeks, and a lot lot more in a month. If Harris is way up in the polls, that’s one thing. It could be that she’s barely getting started. If the numbers remain even, that’s another. It could be that there will be an initial burst of enthusiasm followed by some mehs. (I don’t see Trump gaining ground without a specific reason.)
Yeah, I was worried that he would flip once Biden was out. Not because I think he will always be right (though he’s always been right) but because it would be bad press for our side.
He commented that Biden dropping out was basically a wash. They lost incumbency but picked up charisma.