They say that every election.
2024 is pretty similar to 2020.
I can’t make sense of the sunshine, lollipops & rainbows in this thread either considering any poll shows Harris ahead well within the margin of error and democrats likely also losing the senate.
This thread should be titled “say only good things about Harris’ chances.”
Thank you for saying what I’d been thinking for two months and counting.
Optimism and excitement are good, but temper them with fact-based concern. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
Excellent free essay linked below.
One of many quotes relevant to this (and several other) threads:
“If one candidate has a big lead, there’s a bit less mental strain from all of this. Harris +8 doesn’t feel that different from Harris +4, and an 85 percent probability of her winning doesn’t feel that different than 75 percent. But when the probabilities are in the vicinity of even, it can seem like you’re ping-ponging between radically different universes. A forecast showing Harris as a 55/45 favorite will be interpreted much differently from one showing Trump as a 55/45 favorite instead, even though they’re basically saying the same thing: the election is more or less a coin flip.”
This is the scheme in the episode Mail Order Prophet in the series Alfred Hitchcock Presents: a man (E. G. Marshall!) receives a series of letters successfully predicting future events, then the big scam at the end. It’s based on a short story originally published in 1954. There’s nothing new under the sun.
Speaking of betting: I would NOT bet against an October Surprise featuring Rogan inviting Trump on his show and giving him a full endorsement.
Rogan may be “libertarian” rather than “MAGA,” but he’s never been in favor of Democrats, I believe. And presumably he’s as susceptible to bribery as any other human. I predict that Trump’s people will find something he wants, and give it to him.
Even if Rogan said something nice about Harris’s debate performance, it would be truly shocking if he endorsed her. He’s far closer to the GOP mentality (even if not an exact match) than to Democrats.
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They do indeed. And there are millions of them.
Look at what Trump and Vance are doing with their attacks on the Ohio migrants from Haiti: they are attacking LEGAL immigrants. (When Vance was confronted with this he defaulted to ‘well, Kamala created the programs that supposedly made them legal—therefore they are NOT legal.’)
The message is clear: if you have too-dark skin and/or speak something other than English, YOU ARE ILLEGAL.
Millions approve that message and will vote accordingly.
Except for Vance’s own wife. Melania’s fine, though: even though she can’t speak English, she’s white.
Oh, I don’t know. Maybe Vance enjoys knowing that in the new world he’s trying to create with Trump, he can have his wife sent to a work camp any time he likes. And if we go by ‘speak English’ (only) as necessary to being a True American (and safe), then Melania will have to be on her best behavior, too.
Some folks like the idea of being able to control the people in their lives to that degree. If they could vote it in, they would.
I never really followed Rogan. I didn’t watch Fear Factor. But I recall him going off on an anti- government conspiracy riff. He was arguing the moon landings might have been a government hoax. RFK Jr. supporter sounds right.
He may be more libertarian than MAGA, but he’s definitely a kook, and Trump is the biggest kook.
He may not drop an endorsement, but I suspect he’ll vote on “the economy”, i.e. the myths about Republicans vs Democrats.
Sadly, that’s going to be the pretext used by many, many voters.
Simple- they will cheat-
Network of Georgia election officials strategizing to undermine 2024 result
Emails reveal Georgia Election Integrity Coalition, a group of officials and election deniers, coordinating in swing state
Emails obtained by the Guardian reveal a behind-the-scenes network of county election officials throughout [Georgia] coordinating on policy and messaging to both call the results of November’s election into question before a single vote is cast, and push rules and procedures favored by the election denial movement.
The bad news for Trump is that Kamala is going to be so far ahead that Georgia will have no effect on the outcome. The steak has gone from medium to well done by now.
If Republicans had election officials with a solid plan to undermine Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa simultaneously…maybe.
That being said, though - and I’m not recommending this, of course, just throwing it out there as a thought - the fact that it is already so well-known in advance that Republicans intend to raise false alarms of “election fraud!” no matter what happens on Election Day would actually give real vote-fraudsters a good cover. Since the Republicans have already been discredited in advance, any Republican attempt to sound the alarm over real vote fraud would be perceived as a Republican-crying-wolf situation.
Where does this rate on your “confidence scale” compared to “Hillary will cruise to 358 EV’s (2016)” and “Biden will come close to 400 EV’s and Democrats will get the Senate 54 - 46 (2020)”?
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for you to be right this time - but I’m just curious how rose-colored these glasses are that you put on every four years. And honestly, we’re kinda getting into “fool me twice” territory this go-around.
There is no evidence this is true. Absolutely none. What are you talking about, man? Harris is a slight favourite, maybe, but the election is really close. Why can’t people accept that?
In fact, Harris’ debate bump is starting to fade. Earlier in the week, 538 gave her a 64% chance, than 61% and today it is at 60%. It’s very tight, but she’s in a in a slightly better spot than Trump.
Also, I voted early today in Virginia.
He knows that. He’s spreading rat poison.
Technically, he’s not saying anything about whether the race is close or not, just that he’s confident of the outcome, and that’s not something polls can contradict (unless you’re saying that anyone predicting Trump would win in 2016 was talking out of their ass too because of the polls).
The previous threads of his predictions is much more relevant to me.
(My bolding.) ONLY among half the population—or less.
The half—or more—who never expose themselves to mainstream news media, have NO idea that Republican shenanigans have been observed and noted. They don’t know what Georgia officials are up to, and they will never know. No one they listen to will tell them.
It’s an all-too-common error to assume that what we know, everyone knows. It leads to over-confidence.
Let’s not forget that if ignorance wasn’t as prevalent as it is, we’d never have had a use for the Straight Dope in the first place.
Less than half. Only about 25% of Americans watch only Fox news.