Thanks for linking that; lots of good information there. I did notice that the conclusion you reached, “So the complete disengagement is only 20%,” depends on data about people engaging with news media “in the past month.” That could mean once in the past month. Thus I’m not sure that ‘only 20% are disengaged’ is a fair inference—some of those in the other 80% may be of the ‘once per month’ variety.
A somewhat more-targeted piece from Pew Research has:
This isn’t as on-point as I would like, either—but it does show a difference between the parties with respect to how they follow (or don’t follow) the news.
There’s also the question of whether those who mainly get their “news” from TikTok or Instagram are actually exposing themselves to news. Isn’t it more ‘videos with people giving their opinions about political topics’…?
Anyway, Donald Trump can win at this point if large numbers of Americans have no idea what he’s actually said and done and is planning to do…and sadly, there seems to be no shortage of such Americans.
I think people are approaching this thread from two different perspectives, some people are coming here to have a discussion about the election and others are coming here to crow about any good news for Harris. The second group stays away until there is a piece of good news then they ignore the first group.
Ever since Harris got into the race, it’s been more or less good news for her. No negative events are connected with her or Walz. Anything negative has just been a poll number, usually followed by a positive poll number. Harris has had a number of positives, however, such as her debate performance.
In contrast, Trump has been nuts. Perhaps a “positive” would be the two (more like 1.4) assassination attempts? JD Vance has been anticharismatic jackass.
So it’s hard to see Trump doing anything to drive the numbers in his direction. Maybe his message of fear and hate is resonating a bit more one day, less another? It’s a shame and a scandal that he is not polling near zero, but here we are.
The implosion of Mark Robinson in NC would seem to be a big negative. Someone above speculated that that could actually be good for Trump. Don’t know about that.
So, really, all of the news has been good news for Harris, except some polls. I don’t think anything has changed in the way that Trump could win: barely make it over the finish line and squeak by in the EC.
Harris has run an almost flawless campaign (to my great and delighted surprise). I still think the election is a tossup but its not because she could be doing things better than she is; she is doing the absolute best it is possible to do.
And i’ll absolutely take a toss up with Harris over a crushing with Biden any day.
But a tossup is still a tossup. I will be a wreck on election day until it plays out, one way or the other.
Agree, with the slight difference that, being in a European time zone, I’ll go to bed and attempt to sleep, and then wake up hoping for the best but braced for the worst.
Exactly. And this is why the basic news over the last months (that it is, and will be, a very close election, that could very easily go either way) is essentially bad news.
The fact that about 47% of US voters WILL vote for Trump, and IF they are distributed in a certain way among certain states they WILL usher him into the presidency for the next four years, is BAD NEWS. No matter what happens on Nov 5, and regardless of the minor week-to-week shifts in the polls.
Perhaps deep down all of us in this thread are just trying to process this BAD NEWS. Some process it by only posting about (or responding to posts about) tidbits of “good news.” Others, like me, appreciate those moments — but, in addition, from time to time, we remind others of the fundamental facts. (In other words, I agree with and appreciate madmonk28’s point — but also sympathize with the Polyannas, even if they exasperate me sometimes).
I agree that Harris is running a great campaign against a clearly insane fascist game show host, which is why the euphoria of this thread is baffling. It shouldn’t even be close. That fact that it is close speaks to the deep rot in America’s soul. Trump will likely lose the popular vote, but win the EC vote.
Quite. If trump dies or loses comprehensively, that will not be a repudiation of Fascism. At least not to the Fascists. They’ll be told to see it as a different sort of steal and a new Fascist leader will arise. And we’ll do this again in 2028. And 2032.
I expect to live somewhere beyond 15 years up to to maaaybe 40 more years. I predict we’ll have frothing fascists supported by professional for-profit propagandists the whole time. It will be exhausting working to prevent them from taking the government in every single congressional and presidential election cycle.
But that is the task they have set for us. A task we must succeed at. Every time.
Yeah. I’d say that America can do it the easy way or the hard way, but I don’t think that that wording would be accurate. I think it’s between “hard” and “catastrophic.”
Hard: Harris wins. We still have to clean up the MAGA mess, which will take 20 years. No easy-peasy Reagan after Nixon this time. I don’t think a Trump replacement is in the works, and the GOP will be in a destroyed state, leaderless and rudderless. Plus, we will still have a political and economic system that doesn’t work very well and with which people are dissatisfied. While we’re at it, make that “very hard.” (Note that the above malaise applies to most countries these days, minus Trump.)
Catastrophic: Trump wins in the EC while losing the popular vote. Seeing Harris rise like a bright, hopeful star and yet fail will be soul-crushing to half the country. Seeing her win the popular vote but not be allowed to become president due to archaic, asinine rules would be enraging. Seeing Trump become president again would be, in a word, unacceptable. We’ll have half the country ready to tear this thing down to the studs–and I’ll be with them. And it won’t just be EC reform, minor shit like that. Because when one part is called into question, it all will be. I don’t think the US would make it more than a few months in its current form.
So very hard or catastrophic–that is the question. What is really amazing is that half the country, maybe more, thinks we’re just doing politics as normal right now. I guess a lot of French people thought things were normal in 1789, too.
And we can start by behaving like adults and taking a clear eyed look at what is going on outside our bubble. It is close and the EC gives an advantage to Trump. In a democracy, Harris would only need to get the most votes, but that’s not what America is. We have the EC and voter suppression to contend with.
I think it takes a Hitler or a Trump to make a real movement happen, and I don’t think another one is in the wings just yet.
Nevertheless, the problem is that our political system was hacked starting in the 1990s by the right wing who saw that constant, unmitigated resentment-stoking and obstruction was the way for the team–consisting of the pols and RW media, etc.–to win and make money.
It’s really no different from the other hacks that make modern life pretty much suck: spam, identity theft, enshitification, etc. Everything in all dimensions of life has become a grift or a scam.
So, in that sense, we and pretty much the other countries of the world have a real problem. Democracy itself has been hacked by bad actors targeting stupid and fear/hate-motivated people, and it’s not clear what the workaround will be.