Let’s start with your last sentence, with which I fully agree:
Yes, this is all the GOP has left, and I think it would have done much worse since 2015 without Trump. He’s given the party a focus–himself (cult of personality and all that)–and brought new (and eviler) people into the party to form his troglodyte MAGA base. Once he is gone, however, so will be the focus and those voters who voted for Trump, not the GOP. We will see a depowered, pathetic party. And it will be a party will be disgraced by its affiliation with Trump for at least 20 years.
But there will also be disarray and conflict, making it even weaker:
That isn’t a message. Those are goals. I agree that the goals will remain the same, but they do need to be couched in a message, since they are not good things that most of the American people want.
There will be those who see trying to continue MAGA as the way forward, as well as those who want to go back to “normal” GOP politics. Among those who want to continue with MAGA, there will be fighting over who gets to take up the mantle, both nationally and locally. And so on.
Once Obama became president, they had nothing but obstructionism left to sell. Trump gave them himself and his crazy plans to sell. Fascism and “owning the libs.” Post-Trump, they can go back to obstructionism, maybe, but it will probably seem like very weak tea after Trump.
This seems to be a concession that the R’s will be in disarray. I don’t know if moderate R’s will pander to the extremists, who will be much weaker after Trump. I think there will be a strong temptation to form another party entirely.
I should certainly hope not, given that he’s at worst 50-50 to win.
If Trump actually were to die before November, I’m not even sure how the states handle that - or if they all have different rules - but there is no chance at all Vance could win. That would absolutely crush Republican turnout. Republicans do like Vance a lot, but they WORSHIP Trump. There is no comparison at all in terms of voter enthusiasm. Harris would coast.
But it’s academic. Trump is not dying and he’s not dropping out. He is still doing events. His campaign is not collapsing.
Problem is, of course, that they are all we got, other than our individual pontifications and gut feelings. Which, no offense, haven’t had better of track records than polling model forecasts have.
Polling models have proven fairly accurate in the past. Unless there is evidence to suggest that has suddenly become untrue I see no reason to doubt them now. The election will be extremely close.
“Fairly” carries a lot in that sentence. From the polling thread:
Systemic errors of three or more are pretty common and state polls off by three even more so. That is fairly accurate for some value of fairly maybe but it is also blunt.
The point is made in the NYT polls tracker section nearly as a sticky:
In such a close race, even the slightest movement in the polls takes on outsize significance. For that same reason, even a modest error in the polls could yield a very different result. If the polls underestimate Trump yet again, even by a hair, he would easily win the Northern battleground states and therefore the presidency. But the opposite could be true: Polls underestimated Democrats in 2022, and Harris could win easily if they do that again, even slightly.
It cannot be emphasized enough: if there is a historically typical systemic error then this election ends up not being close electorally; she could win fairly handily or lose humiliatingly. A fairly typical systemic error in her favor has her winning the popular vote by nearly 6 and even coming close in FL. Of course if it goes the other way she loses the popular vote and is pretty crushed in the EC.
Polls are good, not broken, and too blunt of a tool to discriminate between those dramatically different outcomes.
Polls for GA are in toss up range, for example 60% forecast Trump in the 538 model. Separated by under 2% in the aggregate of polling. So yeah, if polls are on the money Trump wins. More likely they are off by 2 or more one way or the other.
Turnout by each side will be decisive and there are good reasons for some to be convinced that Trump won’t drive turnout to him like he has before, and that D turnout in GA will be strong. Early turnout is high anyway.
If someone believes a turnout model that favors Ds then yeah they will be surprised by a loss. I don’t have lots of confidence in my belief that the polling error will land favoring Harris this time but I still think it will.
For the first time, the 538 model is (barely) favoring Trump (he wins 52% of the runs now). Morris cautions that it’s still basically a coin toss (as would be, say, 55% runs going Harris’ way). No single poll caused the shift; rather, a “drip drip” of not-great polls for Harris in most swing states over the last week or two.
No one forced Vance to go big on Donald’s fantasy about Haitians in Ohio stealing and eating people’s pets. Vance could have done the exact same dodge most Republicans do these days: pivot to ‘well, Trump is just highlighting the issues small communities have with even their legal migrants’ and left it at that.
But, no. JD went all in on the lie:
Vance is more than willing to trash immigrants—despite being married to the child of two of them—if he thinks it will gain him power.
Your faith in his being ‘less evil’ than Trump baffles me.
Huh? This again? No one is disputing this. It’s a plain fact. If anyone is still misunderstanding what a forecast is, and misinterpreting what the 538 (or any) model is and isn’t useful for, that’s on them.
If the weather forecast is 45% chance of rain tomorrow, and I don’t bring an umbrella, and I get wet, do I blame the weather reporter?
You seem to be implying that 538 might defensively say something like what you wrote? That’s silly. They have nothing to defend.
Apologies if I missed what you were trying to convey.
I’m tired of explaining all this to people over the years, so I won’t respond to any replies in this (or any other) thread.
I miss when Silver was still at 538 and they still did things like sports odds. Nobody ever says “Oh, they were so wrong” when the calculation is that the Eagles are 70% to beat the Giants this weekend and then the Giants pull off the upset.