How can Donald Trump win at this point?

[Odesio]

@Kolak_of_Twilo

I find it baffling this race is this close when it is clear one of the candidates is such a mess and is clearly in some type of cognitive decline. But rather than it being a polling error I am concerned the closeness is due to much greater misogyny and racism than I thought was still present in the electorate at large.

If Biden were still in the race, best case scenario is the race would be just as close or Trump would have a slight lead. I was afraid of Harris taking over precisely because I feared misogyny and racism favoring Trump, but after a few days of her as the presumed nominee my fears were allayed.

[SunUp]

@Aeschines

Biden had originally said that he would be a one-term president.

Do you have a citation for this?

He was on the record as saying he would be a “transitional” president, but I have yet to hear a definitive quote that said he wouldn’t run for a second term at any time before July 21 of this year.

[flurb]

You are correct, during his 2020 campaign he toyed with the idea of announcing he would only serve one term but never did so.

[Aeschines]

Fair question. The Hill has an extensive article on this point:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4718993-did-biden-break-his-one-term-pledge/

@article

But the report most cited by those who believe a one-term promise was in place was from Politico in December 2019. “Biden’s top advisers and prominent Democrats outside the Biden campaign have recently revived a long-running debate whether Biden should publicly pledge to serve only one term, with Biden himself signaling to aides that he would serve only a single term,” reported Ryan Lizza. “While the option of making a public pledge remains available, Biden has for now settled on an alternative strategy: quietly indicating that he will almost certainly not run for a second term while declining to make a promise that he and his advisers fear could turn him into a lame duck and sap him of his political capital.”

Lizza would go on to quote “four people who regularly talk to Biden” who said “it is virtually inconceivable that he will run for reelection in 2024.” One “prominent adviser to the campaign” said explicitly, “he won’t be running for reelection.” That same advisor said that by signaling this one-term run, it would make the candidate a “good transition figure.”

That “transition” line is important, because it’s one Biden himself used publicly and on the record. “I view myself as a transition candidate,” Biden said at an online fundraiser in April 2020. In March of that year, at a rally where his eventual VP pick Kamala Harris was by his side, he used similar language: “I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else.”

As we now know, that turned into a bridge to nowhere. By March 2021, Biden was saying something entirely different. “My plan is to run for reelection. That’s my expectation,” he said shortly after he was inaugurated.

So it seems he kind of bullshitted his way through this. So unlike Biden…

[DigitalC]

@Aeschines

Yeah, it’s the inertia of the Republican brand. Stupid but a thing.

It’s just the level of polarization we have in the country at the moment, not even a Republican thing. I personally do not see a way I would ever vote R at any level for the rest of my life, the only election were my preference matters is the primaries. Having that R next to their name tells me everything I need to know about a candidate.

[RickJay]

@bordelond

I’m frustrated that high-profile posters are now in a position where “they nailed it!” no matter what happens.

They won’t have “Nailed it” if they’re wildly wrong (and you are, as so many do, confusing pollsters with analysts like 538 and Nate Silver.)

Of course they could be wrong; that would be very obvious after Election Day if the results were really skewed from predictions. If the prediction is a close race, with one candidate being a favourite but not overwhelmingly so, and the result is like 1988, THAT is clearly a terrible prediction. If Trump wins Massachusetts, then someone wasn’t analyzing things right.

[RickJay]

@Velocity

Trump needs an October surprise,

No he doesn’t. He could win right now. Why does he need anything to change?

I guess it’d help him, but he doesn’t NEED it.

[Dung_Beetle]

@DigitalC

Having that R next to their name tells me everything I need to know about a candidate.

Yep. Might as well be an N as far as I’m concerned.

[LSLGuy]

Meaning?

[DigitalC]

Yeah, imma need an explanation too.

[kenobi_65]

@Dung_Beetle

Yep. Might as well be an N as far as I’m concerned.

@LSLGuy

Meaning?

I would hazard a guess that it’s “Nazi.”

[Dung_Beetle]

Bingo.

[Locrian]

@Aeschines

Not I. Right now, if I had the choice between going ahead with the election as it stands or having Mitt Romney step in and with 100% certainty be the next president, I would choose the latter. That is, the certainty of a normal Republican becoming president would be preferable to the current risk of Trump redux.

Amen, brother.

Friends and I discussed if Trump had to drop out and Mitt takes his place and wins, we agreed that would be fine. Could deal with that over lunacy.

[LSLGuy]

I agree a conventional R president (hell a sane R president) would be a darn nice improvement over a trump president.

Having a D-majority Congress where the MAGAt-est R congresscritter candidates all failed their election bids would be even better. IOW I fear a MAGA / Freedumb Caucus -heavy Congress would get more harmful stuff past a traditional R president than we’d all be comfortable with.

[DrDeth]

@Aeschines

So it seems he kind of bullshitted his way through this. So unlike Biden…

Not at all. Look at what people actually said

@article

Biden himself signaling to aides that he would serve only a single term,” reported Ryan Lizza.

So, maybe people read more into what they thought was signalling, than was really there.

@article

Lizza would go on to quote “four people who regularly talk to Biden” who said “it is virtually inconceivable that he will run for reelection in 2024.” One “prominent adviser to the campaign” said explicitly, “he won’t be running for reelection.” That same advisor said that by signaling this one-term run, it would make the candidate a “good transition figure.”

Sure, but none of them were Biden and Lizza carefully doesnt name any of them, so this cant be fact checked.

@article

“I view myself as a transition candidate,” Biden said at an online fundraiser in April 2020.

Yes, a transition from madness into sanity.

This is an article which from closer scrutiny is actually fact free. Nothing can be fact checked. Nothing can be disproved. All Unnamed sources- "four people who regularly talk to Biden” "

And Ryan Lizza is a doubtful source- Or not, depending on what you think-

Ryan Lizza

[PhillyGuy]

@DrDeth

And Ryan Lizza is a doubtful source- Or not, depending on what you think-

I think he is a good journalist. And I think an editor at Politico is told who his anonymous sources are.

I thought Biden would run because people with power rarely want to give it up. But four people, who knew Biden personally, thought differently.

[DrDeth]

@PhillyGuy

But four people, who knew Biden personally, thought differently.

or not. It is very easy to claim that you talked to 4 unnamed mystery people. I am not buying it.

[Dinsdale]

@Odesio

I was afraid of Harris taking over precisely because I feared misogyny and racism favoring Trump, but after a few days of her as the presumed nominee my fears were allayed.

Why do you feel that misogyny and racism are not significant factors in the race being as close as it is/seems?

[DSeid]

@PhillyGuy

But four people, who knew Biden personally, thought differently.

I believe that. I believe they thought that would be what he would do. What that does not state though is that he ever said it.

(The close adviser may very well have been advising such and thought it inconceivable that Biden would not follow the advice when he hadn’t dismissed it out of hand. Who knows?)

[flurb]

The whole “will he, won’t he” and accompanying article were almost certainly a deliberate strategy of the Biden campaign. Remember, the situation he was in at the time was heading into the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, whose voters are disproportionately college-educated, white progressives. Hard as it may be to remember, this group was not sold on Biden at all. Letting anonymous “insiders” speculate to a journalist about whether he would run again could have helped this group swallow his candidacy as a necessary short-term expedient without actually committing him to anything.

Not that it helped him much, since he got crushed in Iowa and New Hampshire.