Yup, now he’s like Biden, hiding in the basement.
I really think that he and Biden were in a race to see who could become too infirm to campaign first. Biden “won,” and now Trump is “winning” too!
I don’t think attention span is the issue here. Trump is just so unlikable even his MAGA followers don’t really care about him on a personal level.
Yeah, it’s definitely interesting, in part because (a) this should be prime season for campaigning and rallies, (b) his campaign has clearly lost a ton of momentum, and (c) his rallies, in front of adoring fans, have historically been something that Trump clearly has enjoyed doing.
I suppose it’s possible that his campaign is actively trying to keep his public appearances to a minimum, due to increasing gaffes and non sequiturs. I do wonder if the assassination attempt rattled him, and made him less willing to hold big public rallies.
As a point of comparison, Trump did 27 campaign rallies in August 2016 (cite).
COVID affected Trump’s public rally schedule in 2020 – he did five in August 2020 and 15 in September 2020 (cite).
Yup, we are looking at a total blowout in November. I think Trump will hang on to Texas by the slimmest of hairs. Rust Belt - goodbye Trump. All swing states Kamala no question, Florida blue, and Kamala’s coattails will also sweep in a deep blue House and Senate.
Interesting stats–thanks!
Getting Texas would be nice, as any dream of a steal would die right there, and perhaps the execrable Ted Cruz would sink along with his Orange Idol into the Gulf of Mexico…
I’m keeping an eye on the chickens while holding off on counting them for now.
As a quick aside:
Very unlikely for the 2024 general election, but the bluing of Texas is inevitable – and much sooner than commonly thought. Their four largest metro areas – DFW, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin – currently have 20.2 million residents (2023 numbers), almost exactly 2/3 of Texas’s population. All are reliable Democratic voting areas.
Those four metros are among the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the US – the first three were all in the 18-20% growth rate between 2010 and 2020 and the Austin area jumped up 33% in that same span. In the year 2000, those four metros were just over 58% of the state’s population. As of 2023, they were 66% and rising.
Tying it in to current Trump campaign talk – I’d never forecast that Trump loses Texas this cycle. But if it were to happen, it wouldn’t be the craziest thing that ever happened. The tipover is going to occur at some point – it’s been building for four straight cycles now.
Very interesting–thanks!
Whelllp, it seems Donnie was blowing up Truth Social this morning and announcing an emergency press conference about… something. Ben Meiselas speculates that Christ L’Orange is in panic mode, doubts the capabilities of his team, and feels he needs to fix things himself. Sounds like a plan!
If two thirds of Texans already live in these “reliable Democratic voting areas,” why isn’t Texas already blue? It’s because these metropolitan areas are composed of a solidly blue urban core ringed by more populated suburbs that can swing either way. Suburban growth is not inevitably Democratic — there’s plenty of Republicans moving from other states to the likes of Frisco and The Woodlands. So there’s nothing inevitable about Texas “going blue,” particularly as the entrenched Republican state government does everything in its power to avoid it.
I’ve gotta ask: What is your evidence that it will be such a massive blue wave? I mean, I would LOVE for you to be right. But so far the polls seem to indicate not much more than a slim Kamala victory.
I vaguely remember that each presidential campaign would take the week off during the opposing party’s national conference. Partly out of respect, but also because you won’t get much news coverage when all the press is focused on the other party that week.
I’ve heard one theory. After the assassination attempt, the Secret Service put their foot down, and demanded that he stop doing outdoor rallies. The problem is, every venue he could use for an indoor rally knows that he routinely stiffed such venues in the last two elections.
So he can’t find anyone willing to rent him an arena any more.
The huge age advantage of a 59-year old going up against a 78-year old, eight years of fed-up-ness with Trump, the chance to make history by electing the first woman, the way Kamala will eviscerate Trump in the debates in a way Biden never could = total devastation for the reds.
The underlying theory at this point is the same as it’s been during the past 6 years:
- Trump’s base isn’t growing
- the winnable middle is shrinking, and Trump is making little effort to engage them
- Biden/Harris began the year with a huge financial advantage that’s only grown
- It doesn’t look like Trump has many (if any) competent professionals to run his campaign.
Now I do take the lesson of 2016 that it’s extremely dangerous to let a ticket coast on a halo of inevitability and self-evident contrast. But we also have to be careful not to let our 2016 PTSD damp enthusiasm over strong candidates.
I strongly believe in 2016 that few people really loved Hillary. They liked the idea of Trump losing, they especially liked the idea of him losing to a woman, but the Clinton/Kaine ticket had little personal magnetism going for it. That’s absolutely not the case in 2024. Harris and Walz are talented, accomplished, and likeable. Of course Harris checks a few different identity politics boxes that Clinton didn’t. But 2024 is different.
Can Trump cheat the system in 2024? Well, he’s not in charge of the military or any security apparatus, so he won’t be able to grease the skids of a coup.
It comes down to battleground states, and I think we will see him pull the absolute slimiest, most desperate lawfare tricks, trying his best to get in front of SCOTUS. Not going to lie, this worries me, because like Trump, certain SCOTUS justices may have exposure to professional, personal, and criminal sanctions as never before. There are a lot of rich, powerful men who may be going to jail if Trump doesn’t win, and I can’t imagine they’ll go down easy.
So, I don’t really know, but those are some thoughts.
I know this is oft-repeated, but I find it somewhat hard to believe. The campaign and its finances aren’t run by Trump himself, so one assumes there’s someone making sure the bills get paid.
And of course, the venue could just demand advance payment, and if it were important enough to Trump they’d agree to it.
Trump is having a press conference right now. I’m watching on CNN. Evidently he said that he has agreed to 3 debates in September. He also said he’s leading by a lot, so he doesn’t have to campaign.
He also took a question I couldn’t understand, and he responded with “What a stupid question.” Nothing ever changes.
I’ve seen enough, I’m out.
agreed with whom?
With himself, the only person who matters.