Exactly. National Guardsmen five deep with weapons of war and instructions to quell any attempted assault, including lethal force.
Also, while there will always be pockets of “patriots” looking to crime their way into glory and history, the first go-around didn’t go they way they thought. Over 1,000 people in prison and nary a pardon from Dear Leader. I just don’t think the delusion of success will have the same momentum this time.
“Let’s all fight our way into the history books!”
“You go without me. I’ll check it out on the news.”
I’m going to ignore the delusional crap about the polls being skewed (which belongs in the polling thread where it, and the falsehood that the '22 aggregations were way off, have been debunked repetitively), but how does Kos conclude so confidently that Ds are ahead in the early vote? (It’s his headline but nothing in the body that even says anything about it?)
Current is running 46% D to 36% R according to NBC. Varies by swing state with solid leads in the Blue Wall states and even to losing by registration in the Sun Belt states.
Not sure I’d endorse that as winning (compared to 2020 numbers) but I am more encouraged than discouraged?
Oh how salty of you. j/k, I respect your clear knowledge on this topic!
The canceled Red Wave of 2022 is a very strong narrative. It’s been debunked? Sincere request: direct me to a good starter post in the polls thread, and I will read.
Btw, I don’t have a strong opinion myself about the rightness and wrongness of the polls. That seems to be something about which even strong-kung-fu statisticians can disagree, and I don’t qualify.
My point, however, was to say that however much people have found me to be foolishly exuberant in this thread (and I don’t really think I have been), there are kos diarists (in this case a diarist, not a staff writer), YouTube pundits, major media pundits, etc., who put me to shame in that category.
Watching all of this from Canada, I have no doubt that I don’t understand all of the nuances, however, CBC has an article (link below) about the outsize role that the Muslim voters have (or could have) in Michigan.
Apparently a significant number of those interviewed want to punish the Dems for their response to the post-Oct 7 Israel/Palestine conflict. And many intend to vote for Trump or third party candidates. On the TV version of the linked story the general sentiment was about making the Dems “accountable” and, in the words of one voter: if Trump wins “so be it.”
So, to answer OP’s question, a lot of voters are either stupid, selfish in their motivations, or incapable of critical thought (note: I’m not say that Muslims are necessarily like that, I’m saying that those particular voters (and millions of others)) are. They are clearly not thinking through the complexities of how the world works nor the consequences of their own decisions.
I’m cautiously optimistic. I do think Harris going to win, but I’m not going to breathe a sigh of relief until the election is over. I’m prepared for plenty of skullduggery on the part of the Republicans though.
Not to derail the thread, but you’re basically saying that Arab/Muslim voters should look at Democratic policies that have indirectly led to, or encouraged, the death of 50,000 Palestinians and smile, nod, clap, cheer and say “Thank you for only killing some of our family as opposed to your rival who’d kill even more.” Nobody here on this message board would behave that way in a similar scenario in real life, and it’s not reasonable for us to expect Palestine-supporting voters to do the same.
I won’t be able to readily deep-dive into this on my phone … but there is analysis out there based on percentage of early votes mailed in/cast broken down by party cohorts (where available). In some states, mail-in votes have to be explicitly requested, and the number of requests by Democratic/Republican/Independent voters plays into the early-vote analysis, as well.
Googling terms like “Pennsylvania, banking votes, early voting” should bring up some early-voting analysis. It’s brought up from time to time on liberal Substack - some in the main articles but more in the respective Comments sections.
Ah street food. We love it. It’s authentic, real, amazing. Not to mention delicious! And it’s just so good until it’s not.
Israel, in its current incarnation under Netanyahu, is just so skilled at handing the US shit sandwich after shit sandwich that we have to choke down with a smile.
I do think that Biden did his best to handle the situation, but surely Muslim (and Jewish, for that matter) Americans understand that the US is in a no-win situation. We can’t support either side, or fail to support either side, without a lot of people getting pissed off.
‘22 was as on the money for polling as it gets. Some pundits selected polls that allowed them to tell a narrative that drove clicks, but the forecasts based on the aggregated polling were amazingly good.
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
It then goes on to say,
After that, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session.
If Vance et al do the first can you imagine Trump or his team of crack lawyers putting together such a declaration in writing?
Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart site is commonly cited for early voting analysis. TargetSmart models votes beyond just party registration— I don’t yet know all the nuts and bolts.
EDIT: Here’s some more that was posted to Hopium’s Comments section (I know, I know … but this guy does a good job explaining this stuff).
Compared to 2020 same point the R side seems to be relatively killing it.
PA for example:
D down from 74% to 65 and R up from 18 to 27%. Crap.
Worse in Sun Belt. AZ? D down from 46 to 35% and R up from 32 to 44%. Double crap.
That said I can’t get too discouraged by this. Last election was especially weird for early and mail in. Covid and Trump discouraging his voters from using the option both likely contributed to a greater Democratic percentage.
Hopium of course celebrates how great the D side is doing!!!
Thing is though that incumbency is unclear right now. Harris was part of the administration but was not the president and Trump is what was. Bottom line is that Harris is winning the “change” perspective with the voters.