But as I pointed out above, with only two candidates with electoral votes the House only votes if there is an electoral tie. Questions of fraud are irrelevant.
I don’t know that this is right. Isn’t it if no candidate has 270?
If some states are in dispute as to how to count their votes, then Trump and Harris might both be below 270, so wouldn’t the election then be thrown to the House? I think so. And I certainly think that it it could conceivably be argued that in elections with no candidate having 270 the SC could then rule that the House will decide the matter. Remember, we’re not talking about a solution that seems fair, or even sensible: my point is if it reaches the SC, they can make up any crazy ruling that 5 members are willing to go along with and there’s no one who can overrule them.
No. It’s a majority of the number of electors appointed.
3 U.S. Code § 15(e)(2): Counting Electoral Votes in Congress – Determination of Majority
If the number of electors lawfully appointed by any State pursuant to a certificate of ascertainment of appointment of electors that is issued under section 5 is fewer than the number of electors to which the State is entitled under section 3, or if an objection the grounds for which are described in subsection (d)(2)(B)(ii)(I) has been sustained, the total number of electors appointed for the purpose of determining a majority of the whole number of electors appointed as required by the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution shall be reduced by the number of electors whom the State has failed to appoint or as to whom the objection was sustained.
@Pleonast , Marc Elias (Democracy Docket) commented on the Republican ground game in an article last week (my emphasis):
With fewer than 100 days until the election, Republicans are building an election subversion war machine.
They have sacrificed traditional get out the vote activity to fund and recruit for their massive voter suppression program.
Sure, but if the Republicans can force Democratic states not to certify their electors, that preserves Republican electoral votes, and lowers the threshhold of votes they need.
If all electoral votes are certified, 270 are needed to win. Suppose Democrats win 276-262, including Pennsylvania (19 votes). If the Republicans can hold up the certification of votes from Pennsylvania, then the totals become 257D - 262R,
For Republicans, that’s even better than throwing the election to the House; they’d win outright.
This doesn’t happen just for the asking, though. I think people are considering the Trump campaign to have far more power over electoral certification than they actually do.
Upthread for more information about the direct counters to de-certification efforts:
This is like watching a cartoon where the villain in a race stops trying to actually beat the opponent directly, and instead sets up a trap or other sabotage before twirling his mustache and prancing away in glee.
While a common trope in cartoons, in real life that’s basically forfeiting the contest. It’s almost more than I could hope for it to be true.
The organization “True the Vote” is already hard at work, exploiting a law that says that every voter challenge has to be investigated, and in one Texas county CNN reported on, they’re flooding the system with thousands of challenges (all to known Democratic voters, of course) faster than they can be vetted …
I’m not saying that they’ll succeed, just that the math works out if they are to try.
Two things I haven’t seen mentioned in this thread that could help DJT win -
- Chris LaCivita is a senior advisor to the Trump campaign. He’s the guy who basically came up with the Swift Boat Veterans group funded by Harlan Crow that seriously damaged the Kerry campaign. They are already trying to smear Walz with the stolen valor BS. I am sure this guy has plenty of other dirty tricks up his sleeve. I saw him being interviewed somewhere and he was stating that the election isn’t over until the President is sworn in at the inaugural. Everything else is fair game. I expect he will be calling a lot of the strategic moves going forward.
- Violent protests breaking out at the DNC in Chicago are a possibility, however remote that may seem. Harris is already being questioned about her response the other night to the Gaza protesters in the crowd in Detroit. I have no reason to think those folks are anything but honest folks upset with the Biden response to the events there. I do wonder about the possibility of Russia or some other foreign actor infiltrating protesters in Chicago and getting things way out of control. That would not be a good look for Harris/Walz if it were to happen.
Yeah, was just reading about LaCivita. What a scumsucker. Good article on Walz’s military service on kos I’m reading right now:
I don’t think there is much mojo for protesting at the DNC, so I think any black ops nonsense will seem small and inconsequential.
Even in watching that video all the way through, though … it turns out that Denton County HAD vetted those challenges and is prepared to swat more aside.
True The Vote is a nuisance that, unfortunately, will have a non-zero success rate. Some very small number of legitimate votes will likely be uncounted. Nevertheless, it’s a hammerlock that their handful of successes won’t end up changing the result of the 2024 presidential election.
As was true in 2020 with January 6th, it is a multi-pronged effort for 2024, much of it hidden from view. Among their chief pursuits:
- Voter suppression at elections offices through the registration process. They’re seeking to throw as many (Democratic) voters off the rolls as possible. Already happening in Georgia and elsewhere:
- Voter intimidation at voter polling places on the day of through violence or threats of same.
- Reducing the number of ballot drop boxes.
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Voter suppression through the mail, if Louis DeJoy has anything to say about it.
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Funding alternative campaigns such as RFK Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein.
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Putting saboteurs in as personnel willing to ignore the results of elections and refuse to certify vote tabulation results.
They will pull every lever available to them to change the results of the 2024 election unless it is a massively decisive outcome. I think this is possible, but everyone needs to understand what is at stake this year and do their part: Vote like it’s the last chance you may ever have to make a meaningful difference with your vote. Because it just might be.
Your outline of the things that are possible is very helpful, thank you.
The thing is, does Trump himself seem to be in a state of mind such that he can lead the effort? It doesn’t seem so. If that’s the case, then who are the “they” in the quote above? Is there a dedicated black ops team that is working in the shadows right now? Are they “that good”?
My gut says, yeah, they’re doing stuff, but voter suppression is something they’ve been doing for years, and I don’t know if they can do much more over the next three months. It’s pretty baked in at this point, wouldn’t you think?
If Trump gets trounced in November, which, certeris paribus, seems likely to happen, is he going to have the will to fight as he did in 2021? And will he have people willing to do the same kinds of things, considering how many have been disbarred, prosecuted, etc., and especially considering that he doesn’t even have control of the executive branch now and therefore, one would presume, lacks the resources that he had in 2021?
I’m kinda not seeing it. I think about the only thing they can try to do is have a swing state’s electors not count. And if he has been trounced at that point, even that won’t matter.
So this is what I mean with the “flop sweat cycle”:
Oops, Trump just lost the support of the most prominent and odious white supremacist in the country. He lost him specifically because the campaign is cratering. If not this specifically, this kind of thing leads to more unhinged Trump behavior and the hovering L glowing bigger and brighter, which in turn leads to more defections.
I think the cycle is only just starting to rev up.
So I am looking more at clips from the big* Trump press conference, and he looks fucking terrible and seems totally not himself. That, combined with the very significant data point of his not campaigning at all leads me to believe that Trump is on the verge of complete physical collapse. Obviously, the danger of wishful thinking is there, but that’s my impression.
*Pathetic and irrelevant.
Trump has led nothing over the past decade. He is pleased to be the circus sideshow that garners all the attention and headlines, while more devious, calculating minds working toward their own ends (McConnell, Leo, Crow, Kemp, DeSantis, Stone, Miller, Bannon, Kochs, Mercers, to name a few) work in the comparative shadows.
You’re being rather disparaging to intimate I’m suffering from delusions re “dedicated black ops” teams. In fact, these folks work quietly, but not secretly. You’ve read at least the summary of Project 2025, right? It’s not hidden. Their goals are nonetheless horrifying. The types I’ve named count on people not really paying attention. They’re mostly right.
I’m not saying they will be successful. I am saying they’re doing everything possible in the hope that enough stuff goes sideways that they can try for success.
Combine enough disenfranchised voters with enough people who voted for stupid candidates with enough ballots that just didn’t make it to the elections office via the US Mail with enough saboteurs to refuse certification of ballot counts with an October surprise or two, courtesy of overseas operators who yearn for a Trump win – for their own purposes, again – and who knows?
It could work.
I agree with this characterization.
No such intention. I have no doubt that Bannon et al. are talking about it, hoping it happens, perhaps even doing some things. But I don’t think it’s a big effort right now.
I agree that they have an authoritarian / fascist plan to implement once they get in power again, but that isn’t a plan to steal the election.
The potential impact of each such thing could be put in a spreadsheet and calculated, but I have not seen any attempt to do that. It would have to be done by someone who understands this stuff a lot more than I, however.
As only one example, RFK Jr.'s campaign was almost entirely Bannon driven.
In hindsight for him, it maybe didn’t work out so well. But not for lack of trying.
Stealing the election is the first step, though agreed, it’s not articulated in the written plan. It’s like they’re almost taking this first step for granted that it will happen.
I wait- with bated breath- for the New York Times to write several articles on the front page that trump should step down. 