I also meant to say that the explanation of Trump’s connection to his cult highlights his need to give his base continual pageantry or the circus will fold its tents. The fact that he has been limiting his rallies at this crucial time may hurt him badly unless he resumes the hype parade. Or it may be an indication that he is suffering from cognitive and physical declines that are appearing at the nick of time.
He calls the Governor of California Gavin “Newthcom”.
And all the people in the comments saying this is alway a problem on Spaces - why is he the only one that sounds like this?
Cite? 
I’ve heard Trump was a cinch to win in here at least once, but I’ve not heard that he absolutely cannot.
Yes, he could create a very big mess. Like the current Supreme Court.
I think that’s also true.
Oh, and one quote from the Elon interview:
That doesn’t have the full quote. Here is the audio.
If I didn’t know that Trump didn’t drink, I’d think he was fully wrecked here. He’s slurring his words, says that Kamala (which he pronounces like “Camilla”) looks like “the most beautiful actress ever to live” and looks like Melania.
Trump is literally macking on the VP like a fucking letch! You think there will be no blowback from this?! It’s one of the most fucked up things I’ve ever heard him say. And that’s saying a lot!
Agree to disagree, then. (This could make for a good separate thread). Weather forecasting works for me as an analogy. If it rains tomorrow, that rainstorm will be a “unique event.” Is it meaningless to say that WeatherUnderground tells me there’s a 25% chance of rain tomorrow, while Weather.com tells me it’s 20%? That they’re making these forecasts by getting data from weather stations today (a sampling of actual conditions throughout the atmosphere), and feeding them into statistical models that have been shown to be pretty accurate in the past, but we can’t know for sure until it happens?
Anyway, we can continue this sometime in another thread.
Thanks. Yup, Bullfinch. I assume 538 will make its ratings available as soon as they re-launch their forecasting model. They often make their new podcasts on Tuesdays, so there’s a good chance – I’d say 78% 
– that this will happen today.
I think it would be a profound mistake to assume that Trump won’t be able to find any strategy whatsoever to peel off swing-state voters between now and election day. He’ll keep trying different attacks, at least a few will land.
Again, not trying to be a doomer here, I said upthread that people need confidence and enthusiasm, and I stand by that. This is not 2016. But assuming Trump is cooked 90 days out from the election is a very 2016 thing to do, and it’s important to avoid that. His base is smaller than that, but still fanatically single-minded, this is the one advantage he has.
Between this and whatever fucked up thing Trump said about Vance’s wife he’s starting to put me in mind of George HW Bush. Near the end of his life when he was known to not have much of a filter when it came to being around women?
It’s truly mind blowing to me sometimes. This bastard has tried to overthrow democracy in America, but it’s still a little surprising every time he demonstrates that he’s just a small odious little thing as well.
Skip to 1:30.
“Look at you. Death breathing down your neck, and you’re playing your little ‘man on the make’ games.”
Moreover, the Republican Party can’t let him just go down in flames if only for the sake of the down ballot races. Even as he seems to be actively fighting their attempt to focus on her biggest vulnerabilities, they will unleash an onslaught against her over the next few weeks to try to bring down her numbers (if not bump up his).
This is an excellent question.
He can barely function. He will direct revenge operations and leave the rest to staff. Vance will move in.
In fact MAGA will feel like they are voting for Vance, not Trump. But the loyal crowd, 40-45%, will anyway.
The win can only come from the house deciding the president. Will that be the old house or the 2025 house?
A contingent election for President in the House would be conducted by the members elected this November. The members would also vote as state delegations, with each state getting one vote.
As I recall, the 2016 election was in the bag, until James Comey decided to announce that they were reopening the Clinton email investigation. From that point on, her ratings plummeted and she had no chance to recover. So we need to be mindful of that when this year’s October surprise hits us and come out and vote even if the polls show Harris 10 points ahead.
My hope is that Russia is too preoccupied with its war in Ukraine to execute an October surprise this cycle.
The Donald is Done mentality on display in this thread is what frightens me to no end.
You have to understand, this is a cheerleading thread. It became easier for me in these kinds of threads when I just let go and accepted that.
This is a real concern. I don’t think it will be an FBI ratfuck op this time around, but my there sure are a lot of bad actors worldwide who are well-positioned to cook some surprises this time around. I do think we should all expect some very concerning events this october.