That’s an excellent turn of phrase, and I happen to agree with your premise. Harris/Walz is running a strong campaign, which has very broad (and deep) appeal, and they are against a feeble man who has nothing new to say.
This is also this first election Trump will have been in since January 6th. That will give him a hit with some prior Trump voters.
Having said all that, I remain absolutely gobsmacked that he got more voters in ‘20 than in ‘16.
So, he has his fans. And he has right wing media. Trump, as long as he is alive, is a force to be reckoned with.
But he’s also bitter, and whiny, and no longer wants to leave his home. He’s not calling into Fox anymore, he’s consumed with personal grievances, and people no longer view him as the hotshot business man but as the ex-president who, regardless of your affiliation, had riots in the streets, mass deaths, widespread unemployment, and lots of fear and uncertainty at the end of his term.
Vance can only do so much (and he plainly lacks the gravitas to take over if Trump - the oldest man ever nominated for president- were to keel over. And right wing media can only do so much about Vance, and are ultimately powerless to overcome the social media zeitgeist that has chosen to destroy him).
Now, of course that isn’t the whole ballgame.
We still have to get to November. And we don’t know what might arise from now and then.
It’s like we are at halftime of a game. The team is playing great; they started off behind, but the rookie backup substituted for the injured veteran and has brought the team back, we might even be in the lead by a few points.
of course the rookie has to keep up the pace of that comeback she just led. She better not skip important states in her campaign!
And if she starts creating turnovers, the game can easily be lost. So Harris must not make obvious gaffes, or let her ego get too inflated. Hopefully, she has good advisors and will remain humble.
One huge platform, of course, is the debate. It’s the biggest performance of her life, as I think it will either solidify her momentum, and carry her to a solid victory, or she will falter and we have a tossup that Trump can win.
Harris certainly has the skills to perform brilliantly in the debate. Presumably, she will prepare (is preparing) with the intensity befitting the importance of the occasion. If she’s done her work, she can relax in the moment, and shine for the nation.
I expect her to do so. She will sound rational, self assured, calm, and clear. It will make tens of millions of people feel better about voting Democrat for president.
And Trump will just reinforce the views people already hold of him. His sycophants will adore him, and the rest of us will be repulsed. He knows no other schtick. He cannot persuade anybody at this point, unless it is to give up on him, either because of what he says in front of the national audience, or because his rambling nonsense finally seems alarming.
But I don’t think that’s the variable which determines the outcome of the debate, and ultimately the election.
Instead, it’s Harris and her performance.
I felt like a debate with a bunch of candidates, as with the primaries, doesn’t let a person like Harris really flex her intellectual muscle. Here, she literally gets to go one on one with a known criminal. If she’s any kind of trial lawyer, with as much evidence as she has against him (in regards to his life, his statements, and his performance as president), she will eviscerate him.
And if she does, or even just holds her own (which I fully expect), I’m confident that she will win. Decisively (well, as decisively as it can be in these times; I think she’ll get a majority of the vote).
America wants to elect a woman. America has been wanting to shake things up for years. I think there is middle class frustration, because the growth in our economy has been hoarded by the wealthiest in society, and that failure to realize gains has put the middle class in the mood for change.
In 2008, it manifested itself as a black man for president who made them believe that dramatic change was possible. There was palpable energy behind that campaign.
Of course, change is hard and incremental, and the powers that hoard wealth resist progress.
So by 2016, that middle class desire to shake things up manifested as a rogue business man who was willing to vocalize their anger. Tear it down!
Of course, he was a grifter, and an incompetent one at that.
And I think the backlash to that gave us Biden. We wanted change, but good change.
Nevertheless, the middle class angst remains. They don’t want establishment. But they don’t want anarchy, either.
And so Harris gives them an outlet for their hopes, desires, and wishes for a better and more prosperous life. A woman. Of color. She’s the future. She’s progress.
We’ll deal with the unrealistic expectations later. The powers that be will fight like hell to resist the inroads into their control.
But, for now, for the election, Kamala Harris (joined by her brilliant choice for Veep, Tim Walz) epitomizes what America wants.