Aside:
I see “flop sweat cycle” referenced here and there, and have even Googled the reference. Unfortunately, the Googling didn’t help me understand the reference – “flop sweat” is, if I follow correctly, “nervous sweat”, “sweat under pressure”. But then tack on “cycle” … what is that meant to convey?
Thanks in advance. Hopefully, asking for a quick explanation doesn’t constitute a hijack.
What’s the magic percentage between “coin flip” and “not a coin flip”? If this were a football game, and oddsmakers worked it out that one team’s win percentage exceeded their opponent’s by ~18%, they’d lay points – not publish it as a “pick 'em”.
Where I live, there’s construction everywhere. Just down the street from my office is a massive project, nearly 1,000 acres, which is converting undeveloped woods into a huge shopping plaza, backed by about 1,200 homes. Near the expressway is an entire new town being built, which is billed as a “city in the making”; it’s going to be next to the cancer center, also under construction. Down the street from the courthouse even more businesses are underway; my only fear is that they might include a car wash, since 2 new ones just opened up.
Where the economy feels “off” is at the grocery store. Granted, I eat a lot of fresh fruit and red meat, but as a single person I consider myself lucky if I leave the grocery store spending less than $200. And I always forget something and have to go back.
Gas prices are steady. Dining out isn’t that bad (not that I do it much, but dinner for me and my son at Olive Garden last night was about $65. Considering I got dessert, and he wanted an extra side plus sauce for his breadsticks, that didn’t seem outrageous).
So I don’t think the economy is doing all that bad. The reason unemployment has started to tick up is because more people are entering the workforce. Wages are rising compared to inflation. And as gross as grocery prices are, they have leveled off.
I expect the economy is on the upswing (as referenced above by the lowering of interest rates). At worst, it won’t hurt Harris, in my opinion.
For the starting odds, perhaps. Then shift them based on the action. Apples and oranges.
But good question in general. I think the uncertainty is where the difference lies. A model run might show a 59% probability but there’s considerable uncertainty in the models themselves. And we know the data driving those models themselves have error bars that are greater than reported.
That’s just the nature of the beast. Models can only be as good as the data driving them, as there’s a relative paucity of data when it comes to elections. And that’s if the models themselves are as good as we hope.
To be honest, I’d still not be very confident if a computer model gave my football team a 59% projected win percentage. And I’m much more confident in the computer models driving football projections than those projecting elections.
It’s my own term I created… as I was writing the OP!
You understood “flop sweat” correctly. The performer, in this case Trump, does poorly on (the national) stage and looks bad not only for the poor performance but also for himself being rattled at his own poor performance.
“Cycle” is as in “vicious cycle.” Being rattled (insane, incoherent, slurring, ranting, whining, foaming at the mouth, etc.) causes Trump to fall further in the polls, causing him to become even more rattled.
This is exactly what is happening to Trump. What’s scarier (for him) is that, despite the protestations and exhortations of his team (and Fox News, YouTube MAGAs, etc.) is that he is unable to course correct. He can’t pull out of the cycle. Keep going down the tubes, Donnie!
Yeah, my state of Indiana is doing well. Northwest Indiana (the “Region”) is booming, with lots of construction as you say. Traffic in Indy is now so intense that I’m glad I don’t live there any more (among other reasons).
The flip side of that is that housing prices in both of these places are outrageous. Rents in Indy will make you cry. So you have to consider that side of the equation as well. It’s hard to find a sweet spot.
OTOH, I saw a video on YouTube not too long ago where a guy was walking along Rodeo Drive and showing how everything was closed. Retail is dying there (accurate or not, I don’t know, but we do know there are not a few places like this). Further, there is a ton of empty office space in a lot of places.
It seems that the economic numbers are good in the aggregate, but there is a lot of boom and bust adding up to form that. That is going to mean a lot of dislocation and pain for people even as the entirety looks pretty good.
Yeah, I personally have felt very little pain as I am a decent cook who buys basic ingredients and makes things from scratch. E.g., if a huge bag of brown rice goes up by a few bucks, that’s not really noticeable. I think it’s the value-added foods that tend to hit people in the pocketbook.
Here again I think you and I might be on the same page while others are flipping through a different part of the book. Fast food has become pretty outrageous. To me now, it’s almost as if more expensive restaurants provide a proportionately better value. Again, though, I make my own pizza instead of ordering Dominoes (pizza is crazy cheap if you make it yourself!).
Yeah, a couple basis points lower could mean a whole point higher in the polls. I’m not even kidding.
This article argues that Trump’s camp believes PA is the ultimate must-win so Vance is apparently being stationed there more or less permanently for the rest of the campaign.
Which seems odd to me, because there’s a real risk Vance actually costs Trump the state if PA voters get a good long look at him.
In Trump’s mind he is a great judge of character and Trump picked Vance so Vance is great. Trump does love the word Great. So the Great Vance, the Greatest VP pick ever you know, will make a Great difference in Pennsylvania.
Maybe and maybe not.
In the 2020 election, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia were all won by less than one percentage point. If you swing just 0.3 percent of the vote from Biden over to Trump, Trump wins those states, and the election is a 269-269 tie, which Trump would have won in the House. If you move 0.6% from Biden to Trump, Trump also wins Pennsylvania and the election outright.
It is not at all outrageous to think RFKJr can swing that many votes. He has a lot of devoted followers for a variety of mostly insane reasons.
That’s all it takes.
I’d have said “spiral” since that is more intuitive and leads to an inevitable conclusion. But it’s your creation so you get to name it whatever you want. 
Ya think?! 
LMFAO at these idiots.
I’m sure Trump and crew are so glad he’s been mouthing off about Shapiro and the JOOZ as well.
“Flop sweat spiral” is good in terms of meaning but strikes me as harder to say, since it’s hard to go from t to sp than t to s. IMHO!
And what if his presence would have scared away other Kamala voters? Guy gives me the creeps.
Assuming he is alive.
And, IIRC making a deal for support and a promise of a role- isnt that illegal?
The three big GOP lies- “The economy is terrible.”
No, it is great! Jobs are up, the GDP is up, the markets are up, and inflation is down.
“Crime is out of control” Np, crime is a a low.
“The border is open”- just try getting back into the usa with some mild contraband (firecracker, too many bottles of booze, whatever) and no ID.
The first is nearly a certainty. The second will not occur, Hamas wont sign any deal- why should they?
If I had a coin that biased, no one would let me use it. Going into gaming-a 60% chance to succeed is way, way better than a 40%. Mind you- there is no reason to think this is a sure thing- it aint.
Well, sure they do. 
They watch Faux news and listen to Conservative talk radio.
It has been higher in many of the 1980s, 1990, and about the same as recently as 2005. We were saved from inflation due to the pandemic.
PA is critical, but Florida is in play, and if Harris gets Fla- Goodnight Vienna.
Well, sure, but he’s also pretty sure that winning outright isn’t a good plan and he needs several more underhanded paths to achieve his goal, which isn’t “winning outright” but “serving as POTUS after 1/20/2025 by any means available and necessary.”
I hope I’m being understood here as NOT believing it makes sense for Trump to count on the Supreme Court’s depravity and corruption as his ticket to the White House, but simply thinking that he is planning on using this route when all else fails him, as I think it will. Rather than giving up his campaign if he should win, say, 240 EC votes and should come within a few percentage points in 30 more, I think he will push the Court to declare the election an unsettled issue that must (in the absence of 270 certain EC votes for either candidate) be settled by the House.
It’s crazy, and improbable, but I think he thinks this could be his surest path to victory. It celebrates his one true accomplishment during the Presidency: turning the Court from a GOP majority into a MAGA-majority court that will do any crazy, improbable, unprecedented and blatantly illegal things it needs to do to put power in the hands of those who agree with them that this country is in need of fascist leadership.
This isn’t what the law says:
Under the Electoral Count Reform Act, if the number of electoral votes cast decreases (e.g., because Congress votes to sustain an objection and not count a slate of electors, as described below), the number of votes needed to win also decreases. For example, if Congress discards 10 electoral votes, the total number of votes cast drops to 528, and the number of votes needed to win drops to 265. This reduces the incentive for supporters of a losing candidate to try to throw out electoral votes so that Congress can select the president. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, some Trump supporters hoped that if they could get Joe Biden’s electoral votes below 270, then the House could install Trump as president.
So in order for this to work, the following would have to happen:
It’s a lot of steps, and from step 2 onward, we’d be in a constitutional crisis with all hell breaking loose and the results difficult to anticipate.
In short, it ain’t gonna happen. I am especially confident in saying this in that Trump appears barely functional these days and therefore would not have the energy to pursue the above with any kind of vigor; nor does he seem to have the kind of team in place that can pull it off, even if it were a realistic scenario, which it is not.
I don’t think Florida is really in play. There’s a non-zero chance it could move into play in the next month or two but that’s not likely to happen and it’s not “in play” now, IMO.
RE: the economy… as far as national politics goes, the economy is exactly as bad as voters perceive it to be, no more, no less.
I agree. The shift to Harris has made us all a bit giddy, daydreaming about Florida and Texas. Nope, not unless something hugely dramatic occurs. North Carolina, on the other hand?…
That may not be necessary. If Republicans can get enough electoral votes from Democratic states disqualified, then Trump may have a majority of the electoral votes that remain. In that case, the Electoral Count Reform Act works in Trump’s favor. He wouldn’t have 270, but he’d have enough to win.
Here’s a little something I’m enjoying. Trump is flailing about in desperation mode as his numbers drop, and in a 3 AM rant this morning put out one of his most idiotic policy proposals yet. It might superficially be understood to mean that immigrants with college degrees should be given preference (actually a good idea, and one adopted by many countries) – though it would be hard to square that with Trump’s “I love the uneducated” claim.
But since Trump is an idiot, that’s not what he means. What he means is that foreign students attending US universities should be compelled to remain in the US after they graduate. I love this, because it’s not only completely unworkable, it’s in violation of basic human rights, and makes Trump even more unpopular among sane voters, but it has the added benefit of alienating his own hard-line anti-immigrant supporters! 