Oh stop it stranger, bugger you … I’m not supposed to laugh so outrageously and aloud at work.
And to the OP and their sympathisers, have you considered what the rest of the civilised world would think of merkinland if Kamala makes a couple of gaffs, the race stays 50:50 and DJT reclaims the White House either via the EC or the popular vote?
I applaud the optimism but fucked if I could fathom how he got elected the first time or got so close the second. As Abe Lincoln said “The hen is the wisest of animals, she only cackles after the egg is laid”.
I can say no fucking way with 100% confidence on this. I mean, can you imagine Harris, as she presents herself right now, saying to other Democrats, “OK, guys–go in there and try to win!” Just playing along? As I said, no fucking way.
Right, and then who believes that that result is real, and who enforces the result? It’s civil war at that point.
Look at the 1876 election. It was total chaos even though the crisis was not based on blatant cheating. And people were afraid that that was about to set off a second civil war.
You also have to take into account that Democrats have spent 3.5 years condemning the January-6 insurrection. They would be reluctant to do something that resembles an insurrection of their own, even if the Rs were truly stealing an election.
I know exactly how it’s happened. 30% of the country wants an authoritarian dictatorship with Trump as dictator. That’s why I’m not “optimistic” overall. We have a very sick country that will take a long time to heal.
All he needs is for more of his supporters to vote than Harris. That’s it. If enough Democrats stay home, Trump wins. He doesn’t need to win any undecides or “centrists” so he doesn’t need to adjust. His base is enough if the other side is complacent or just plain decides to not vote. It worked in 2016 and almost worked in 2020. Nothing illegitimate about it.
That is a fair point. But any plausible scenario in which Trump cheats and succeeds would involve 1) blatant cheating–it won’t fool anyone, 2) the Supreme Court endorsing blatant cheating in a 6-3 decision with a scathing, no-holds-barred dissenting opinion calling out the majority on their corruption and complicity. The Democrats would correctly and plausibly label all of these efforts a coup. So what the Democrats did at that point would not be an insurrection but a counter-insurrection. Now, of course, the fascists will believe what they want, but I hardly think the Democrats would be worried about offending them at that point.
Enthusiasm for each party’s candidate has been measured, and Harris is ahead. The Dems also seem to have a much stronger ground game. So your point is fair, but the Dems seem to have the advantage currently.
While I’ve heard the theory advanced by Rachel Maddow et al. that Trump is going to try to steal the election through individual actors, what I haven’t heard claimed is that entire state governments are currently poised to cheat the Democrats out of a win.
Voter suppression sucks and it’s no doubt having an effect, but perhaps not one big enough to change an entire state’s result.
OK, looking at the responses in the thread so far, I think it’s fair to say that there are only three plausible things that can happen to improve Trump’s chances of winning the election (this is not to say that Trump will lose if he doesn’t improve his chances):
Unexpected event(s) that make the administration look bad, etc.
The Trump campaign drops an October surprise of some sort.
Trump and the fascists cheat.
We’re so used to Trump winning against impossible odds and getting away with everything that it’s easy not to think of further downside potential for Trump, but here are a few things of varying plausibility and probability:
Trump gets sentenced in the NY case.
More Republicans come out against him.
Fox News personalities come out against him.
Trump has even more of a meltdown.
Trump has a physical breakdown of some sort.
Melania leaves him or outright denounces him (they are already publicly feuding).
Trump has a polling result that appears fatal (e.g., clearly losing a needed state).
JD Vance has further issues or is booted from the campaign.
Important campaign staff quit.
Trump is a chaos agent; anything can happen. Whereas I don’t think anything similar to the above is likely to happen to Harris.
Let’s not normalize this. The fact that Trump continues to have millions supporting him is profoundly disturbing. Thirty years ago, hell, ten years ago, I could not have envisioned someone like Trump getting traction among the American people.
That’s going to happen regardless. He’s been convicted, now he will be sentenced.
Of all your list, these are the two that can sink him. Republicans and Fox News coming out against him won’t move his needle much—he will denounce any such Republicans and Fox News hosts as RINOs. Melania is no factor; she was hardly there during his presidency, and if they’re having problems, well, so do a lot of other couples.
No, it’s Trump having a mental meltdown or a physical breakdown that will sink him. He’s going to be under a lot of pressure, and both are likely. We’ve already had sharks, batteries, Hannibal Lecter, and of course, covefve; and he needed a golf cart to keep up with the other G7 leaders, and he needed help down a ramp.
Maybe you are right but the most disturbing factoid I know about the US electorate is that in 1964 DEM nominee LBJ won the white vote and with that mandate in 1965 signed the Voting Rights Act. Since then no DEM nominee has won the white vote.
Given that is 30 years more than 30 years ago, methinks that if Trump had been candidate earlier in the last 30 years, though he’d have probably needed social media, he’d have been in with a serious chance.
Breakout of some type of war that pulls the US military into conflict. Maybe Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi attack Israeli population centers with weapons of mass destruction?
That would fuck shit up and possibly get the weirdos elected.
It wouldn’t fuck Trump up at all. While the Left was gathering facts, the Right would be spreading the news about how it was the fault of Biden and Harris.
Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.