How can Donald Trump win at this point?

[PhillyGuy]

@kenobi_65

Harris’s advantages are largely meaningless to close to half of the voting population, who have (a) already made up their minds, and (b) have allowed themselves to be convinced that any Democrat will destroy the country as they know it.

Some Trump voters think (b). Some do not. But I agree with you on (a).

A lot of voters made up their mind to vote for Trump, if the GOP candidate, during the 2021 inflation spurt. The Democrats changing the ticket away from Biden caused some to reconsider. But, given that Harris is part of the Biden administration, the great majority who became pro-Trump in 2022 will remain so this fall.

There could be an unexpected super-big news event that further shakes up this close race. But campaigning and advertising cannot do much…

[Chingon]

@suranyi

The great mystery is why.

There is no mystery. It’s very simple.

1. It’s a two party system
2. There is a very high floor for Trump because Republicans and conservatives love him more than any candidate in their lifetime. They believe the existence of the white race and Christianity depend on him getting elected.

[Dung_Beetle]

@Aeschines

Some people just always vote R and aren’t paying enough attention to what Trump is actually doing.

This describes my relatives. The decision was made long ago, they don’t follow the news, if they do it’s Fox. Witch hunt, witch hunt, etc.

[DrDeth]

@JKellyMap

50% of Americans are fascist assholes.

Really? So trump took in 46.9% of the popular vote- you are saying that some 3-4% of Democrats are fascist assholes?

And you know, there are a LOT of voters who just vote D or R, not caring who it is. Uncaring? Ignorant? maybe But not fascists.

So since we know only 30% of Americans are hard core MAGAs, I am pretty sure you are wrong.

[Odesio]

@DrDeth

And you know, there are a LOT of voters who just vote D or R, not caring who it is. Uncaring? Ignorant? maybe But not fascists.

Fools. Anyone who votes for Trump at this point is, at best, a fool. A person who either doesn’t believe anything about Trump including his fraudulent business practices, his sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll, setting up a charity for children and stealing from it, defrauding people via Trump University, or they are simply oblivious and just vote because there’s an R next to his name on the ballot. So, yes, they’re ignorant, uncaring fools, at best, or they’re fascists. They might not think of themselves as fascist, but if it walks like a goose and honks like a goose…

[DrDeth]

@Odesio

Fools. Anyone who votes for Trump at this point is, at best, a fool. A person who either doesn’t believe anything about Trump including his fraudulent business practices, his sexual assault of E. Jean Carroll, setting up a charity for children and stealing from it, defrauding people via Trump University, …

How would they know any of that from Faux news?

[JKellyMap]

@DrDeth

Really? So trump took in 46.9% of the popular vote- you are saying that some 3-4% of Democrats are fascist assholes?

I KNEW someone would quibble with the exact figure.

Is that what tripped you up? Really?

Fine. 40%. Whatever!!! That doesn’t change the point, and you know it.

[DrDeth]

@JKellyMap

Fine. 40%. Whatever!!! That doesn’t change the point, and you know it.

It does when you are calling people fascists. Ten seconds is all it took.

[JKellyMap]

@DrDeth

It does when you are calling people fascists. Ten seconds is all it took.

I’m glad you feel better now.

[velomont]

@flurb

What has transpired in the intervening four years that would cause his support to go down?

What has transpired in the intervening four years that would cause his support to go up?

@Akaj

Hmm, let’s see …

• He instigated an insurrection and attack on the US Capitol.
• He illegally hoarded (and quite likely sold) top secret documents.
• He torpedoed a bipartisan immigration bill to suit his own political needs.
• He’s been indicted for extremely serious crimes.
• He’s been convicted of 34 felonies.
• His business organization has been found liable for fraud and fined a half billion dollars.

We live in a world in which unacceptable behaviour is a positive thing, sadly.

[psychobunny]

He just promised that in his administration IVF will be 100% covered by insurance. That will get a lot of votes. Nevermind that insurance rates will skyrocket. Nevermind that you would need to set a limit on cycles. He supporters will see that he is the profamily candidate.

[Tatterdemalion]

Never mind that he can’t do it.

[enipla]

@flurb

I think there’s an element of basic human psychology here – people hate to admit to themselves that they were wrong.

I’ve also said this. And this isn’t normal wrong within normal parameters, this is batshit crazy wrong.
How does one ignore the elephant in the room? Dig deeper is the only option these folks can come up with.

[BobLibDem]

Loved this line on MSNBC today- in DJT’s case, IVF means I’m Very Frightened. On abortion, he doesn’t get it. He seems to think there’s a magic number of weeks of pregnancy (that HE will set) that should be the limit on abortion and that everyone will love and marvel at his deal-making prowess. Guess what Donald- this will work as well as the Missouri Compromise did for slavery. You’ve got people in your party that think that abortion one nanosecond after conception is murder, these people aren’t going to accept your deadline.

[Railer13]

@psychobunny

He just promised that in his administration IVF will be 100% covered by insurance.

Insurance or the government will pay for IVF, according to Don. I’m sure that will make his small-government/cut-spending fans happy.

[JRDelirious]

@Procrustus

So, for those of us in very Blue America, the fact that 47% or so voters prefer Trump to Harris is unfathomable. I’d believe 10 to 15% perhaps.

Which I’m sure you recognize is itself an expectation influenced by the fact you are in “very Blue” territory and by your own admission you have only one openly pro-Trump voter to sample from (*).

What we often “fail to fathom” is that the population in of America that opposed the mid-20th-century reforms and social changes did NOT just roll over and die. They continued to oppose, and they raised their children and grandchildren to believe the day would come to undo the wrongs of the First Culture War.

That there is an enormous segment of the American people for whom the whole notion of that this political choice involves an existential threat is… indifferent. That there are millions of Americans who feel we already got to the point of progress and justice they felt there should be, and they at least don’t want to have to move any further. Who WANT to be told there’s no need to change how they live or what they believe. Who “know” that whoever’s in charge will not really help them so why not have it be someone who will promise that.

And that there’s a class of putatively educated and entrepreneurial Americans who are convinced that the way to secure themselves and their posterity the blessings of America is to be rich/powerful enough to ride through any upheaval against their statu quo.

To them, “But, but… FASCISM!!!” coming from us sounds like what to us “but, but, SOCIALISM!!” sounds like coming from them.

…

(* I often make reference to the SNL post-2016 election sketch about election-viewing party of White Liberals with Chappelle and Rock as their Black friends. The Black friends are like “yeah of course this could happen” while the Whitelibs are having a panic attack in total incredulity.)

[Irishman]

@flurb

By any reasonable standard, expecting that she should be crushing Trump in the polls right now is insane.

What about the standard that Trump is a lying, felonious, raping, gibbering traitor who wants to be a dictator and Harris is none of those things? Is that a reasonable standard?

@psychobunny

He just promised that in his administration IVF will be 100% covered by insurance. That will get a lot of votes. Nevermind that insurance rates will skyrocket. Nevermind that you would need to set a limit on cycles. He supporters will see that he is the profamily candidate.

I have to wonder about people who would use that to change their vote. I mean, I get how important fertility issues can be (my sister has hers), and free is tempting. But if you look at everything else, it just doesn’t fit.

Think about it - IVF creates a whole bunch of fertilized eggs. That’s what freaks out the anti-abortionists. Even more so, it typically involves implanting several zygotes and then setting how many take, then maybe even terminating a few. Otherwise, that’s how you get all those sextuplets and octuplets. So there’s no way his base will let him do that. The only question is if he backs out before or after the election.

So if you have watched Trump at all, you have to know he lies, and he’s taken action that is at odds with this position, and his base will freak out. So how do you trust him?

And, if that idea actually has merit, how long before the Dems take that up and propose legislation? They are, after all, the party of social welfare programs, right?

@BobLibDem

He seems to think there’s a magic number of weeks of pregnancy (that HE will set) that should be the limit on abortion and that everyone will love and marvel at his deal-making prowess.

Yep. Abortion has been a hot button topic for a century, and Roe was an uneasy truce that he broke, but he’s just the genius that, once he turns his mind to it, will find the perfect solution everyone will love. Because he’s a genius.

@JRDelirious

(* I often make reference to the SNL post-2016 election sketch about election-viewing party of White Liberals with Chappelle and Rock as their Black friends.

I think of the one where the white people are all predicting Trump as a candidate crossing the line and his support collapsing, and the Black people keep saying, nope, won’t make a difference.

[DSeid]

@JRDelirious

They continued to oppose, and they raised their children and grandchildren to believe the day would come to undo the wrongs of the First Culture War.

We often fail to appreciate how much cultural change has occurred in a fairly short period of time, not just within our lifetimes, not just within our adult lifetimes, but within the last two decades. Heck even the last ten years!

I’m not ashamed to acknowledge that my understanding of trans issues for example was near nil a decade ago, for example. I am arrogant enough to think that reducing my ignorance was not so hard a lift, and several posters here (some like Una now having left us) contributed to that reduction mightily, but that for many others in this country changing a perspective is even harder. Especially without having had the help of patient explainers.

[Aeschines]

Good post! It’s hard to square what you say with the rise of Obama, however. It seemed as though we had crossed a line–a good one, in this case–and were not going back.

While it’s definitely not hard to understand the rise of Trump as a backlash to having a Black man as president, the numbers don’t really seem to add up.

I even know a guy who voted for Obama twice (at least, he said so) and then because an ardent Trump supporter. Like, he’s a self-labeled groyper now, apparently (which I learned from a mutual acquaintance, since I am no longer in contact with the groyper in question). So there are people who crossed the good line and did go back. It blows my mind.

[flurb]

@Irishman

@flurb

By any reasonable standard, expecting that she should be crushing Trump in the polls right now is insane.

What about the standard that Trump is a lying, felonious, raping, gibbering traitor who wants to be a dictator and Harris is none of those things? Is that a reasonable standard?

[sigh] I really need to quit this thread, but I keep letting myself be pulled back in.