How can Donald Trump win at this point?

Right. They see that food prices were cheaper, that Trump was President, and feed that through their conservative distortion filter (CDF) that says “democrats bad for economy, republicans good”, and they conclude that it was Biden and the Dems that made food prices go up.

They ignore the ~4 years of global events that have shaped the economy and affected prices. They just want lower prices, they don’t know how to achieve them, but their CDF gives them the answer.

I think it’s more that statistics are manipulated by propaganda that is fed to people who internalize misinformation.

They aren’t considering food prices from 2020. From their own memory, that time sucked.

Rather, talking heads are telling them technically true things (food prices were lower under Trump) completely lacking in context (nobody could go anywhere and you were likely out of work or facing a salary cut, and the eventual inflation can be blamed on Trump’s bad policies), which they are regurgitating.

Back when I spoke to my Trump loving cousin, he told me he didn’t want to hate Biden. But he gets home and “watches the news…”

These people think the ranting and raving on right wing media is news.

The only other reason is that they are very stupid and are enabling actual evil people due to their fucking idiocy. I guess that’s marginally better

The nuance being that people can be very dumb in this area but otherwise smart and capable people. I know plenty of Trump supporters who are otherwise successful. It just seems they have no critical thinking skills when faced with news.

Personally, I don’t get it. I think they’d see a con man and charlatan for what he was, were some such person to come to the office. Somehow, the filter of the media totally erodes their analytical abilities.

Yeah, this is it. A big chunk of the 70 million people who vote for Trump are lawyers, doctors, engineers, pilots, scientists, mathematicians, programmers, accountants, etc. - folks who are not low in IQ by any means.

The heart overrules the brain, basically. Or, the brain can be forced to go along with, and rationalize, what the heart wants. Logic doesn’t hold a candle to emotion in terms of action-power.

So basically like (but bad?!):

Looking at both 538 and RealClearPolitics, Harris did not get a convention bounce. Or, if she did, it was a fraction of one percent.

She did get a bounce before the convention. But public opinion is not trending towards Harris. It is impossible to say who would win the election if today, and there’s no sign of that changing.

Trump made a mistake in not firing Vance last month. But everyone make mistakes - he may win anyway.

Excellent summary of the current situation (I’m sad to say).

The vast majority of them are absolutely convinced the Democratic Party wants to cancel freedom of speech, destroy the Republic, and destroy the economy. They think YOU’RE the evil side. They think Trump stands for democracy, freedom and justice, along with his friends Kennedy, Musk and Tucker Carlson.

They truly, honestly believe that. You don’t have to believe it, I sure don’t. But they DO. Accept it.

Trying to get rid of Vance - which he can’t do easily, as Vance was nominated per party rules, and is not Trump’s employee to fire at will - would have been a disastrously stupid move. It would have made them look terrible for no real advantage. Vance is popular amongst Trumpists and won’t lose Trump any votes.

e.g.:

Oh, this outta be good…

In my opinion, this is the greater factor (fear of the ‘Left’), rather than enthusiasm for what Trump represents.

I do frequent a ‘right-leaning’ blog that’s more focused on Australia/New Zealand (I live in NZ) and it occasionally has comments about the US. Some of the vitriol aimed at Kamala Harris is extremely petty (the ‘cackling’, not doing interviews enough), but most of it is about how Democrats will tank the economy and force wokedom on everyone.

There’s a massive blind spot of course (Trump’s import tariffs for example are never mentioned), while posters will pick up on the tiniest slip by Harris as a ‘word salad’. I believe it’s all driven by fear - certainly not by any objective policy comparison.

And if you don’t need to examine your own policy (or whatever brain fart passes for policy in TrumpWorld), then that’s a nice comfy place of ignorance to reside in.

Here’s a good article about the various shenanigans the GOP is using to try and siphon votes from Harris using third-party candidates like West. It’s a wide-ranging and frightening effort. It will be hard to beat this kind of organization.

Re the fear factor: There’s truly being afraid of something, and then there’s pretending or choosing to be afraid of something so as to form a community, political party, etc., based on that. I think the GOP is engaged much more in the latter than in the former.

A Communique From Trump Country :

Lawn signs are rare.
There are still a few, and big ones.
Bumper stickers exist, but fewer cars, although those cars are plastered with them.

The Bloom is off the Rose.

Reporting in from Central michigan. Battleground state of course. I live in a small college town that is basically pretty liberal. But there’s a very strong strain of trumpism around here, particularly if you go out into the rural areas.

I started seeing Trump signs around me popping up about a month or so ago. Harris signs shortly after that but not as many. I have my own Harris/Walz sign in the mail should be here within a week or so. There are a not insignificant number of homes around here that have gigantic Trump signs up all year long. So it’s hard to tell sometimes what new or existing enthusiasm, versus old habits. Overall Trump enthusiasm seems to be down, but it’s hard to gauge objectively. My understanding is Michigan’s polls are generally trending in Harris’s direction though. That would seem to fit. And I’m pretty much in the middle of a battleground area.

I was also in Traverse City about a week ago. Pete Buttigieg’s hometown currently. And there was a ton of support for Harris there. Complete with a public demonstration in the local park I happened to drive past. Good signs there.

Again this is based on personal opinion and observation, so take with a grain of salt.

I’ve noticed far, far fewer Trump signs in Scottsdale than in the past few elections. There’s one guy with a huge Trump flag, but he’s always flown some asshole flags, election or not. All the other houses that used to have signs are barren.

They have Trump signs on their hearts.

I was watching a youtube live stream the other day and one of the people in the comment thread was using a “Trump 2024” badge as their avatar. They weren’t making MAGA-type comments, but every time the host responded to them the avatar was displayed on the screen. The channel content and host are strictly apolitical so this seemed a bit inappropriate to me. I felt the urge to complain but thought better of it.

Per a Harris advocate, she is winning amongst older voters, a death knell for his campaign.

Wishful thinking? Perhaps.

Still, it’s a nice thought. Older voters - many of whom were once 60s radicals - aren’t enamored with Trump. And when you lose old people, you have a real hard time winning the election.