How can Donald Trump win at this point?

Politics & Elections
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1861

Yes. The media has had 100 years or more of acting in a “nonpartisan” manner, which becomes highly dysfunctional when when of the parties becomes a criminal, antisocial organization, as the GOP has. What is more, continuing to act as though both parties are “real and normal” is good for the bottom line; i.e., the horse race. So the media have had no tools with which to respond to Trump properly and ethically, and they are greatly disincentivized to do so.

What I think has been needed has been a disclaimer to go with every print and TV/video story: “Trump is a convicted felon and adjudicated insurrectionist and sexual abuser. Our editorial position is that he is not an acceptable or legitimate candidate for president of the United States.”

Or something to that effect. With every fucking story.

1862

That’s apparently a flash point location for the right wing news bubble.

If you tried to explain the distinction between an anecdote and comprehensive data, you’d have never succeeded.

1863

Also, one major media has become a biased supporter of one candidate, spreading lies and propaganda.

Look- they are not unbiased- you dont have to be- at least for this election

AARP tries hard to be unbiased, but clearly for a senior on Social Security and Medicare, there is only one choice.

This election is not longer a choice between a right of center conservative vs a Left of center liberal. It is the choice between the end of democracy as we know it vs sanity.

1864

Yeah, that’s the incident, and she mentioned it. I had assumed from her tone that the girl had died. Glad she didn’t!

1865

Yes, all that you say is true.

And the meta-narrative about the media gets extremely twisted as well. So today, my real estate agent’s friend was saying, “Oh but they’re not going to talk about stuff like this on the news,” and my real estate agent agreed.

Not on Fox News?! And so on. It’s such a mess.

1866

Another bit about young men moving into the Trump camp more than they had before doubles back on the attraction some have to authoritarian leaders. Again, a large fraction of Americans find that appealing. Yes the same threat to democracy as an institution that horrifies many of us activates these voters. Who is most likely to be on that group in America?

That report did not separate by gender or education level but one strongly suspects that male and non college educated also would correlate with that attraction.

1867

I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the woman you spoke to was indeed left with the impression that the girl had died; I wouldn’t put it past the right wing news to intentionally obscure the true facts of the case in favor of the most sensationalist narrative (e.g. “this woman was brutalized and left to face the prospect of death;” she was actually stabbed in the hand)

And, of course, in a nation of some 350 million people, finding a random example of pretty much anything is easy for those looking for things to sensationalize.

1868

Or race. I doubt many non-White people (or immigrants) assume that an authoritarian leader would improve things for them.

As Roger Stone said, “Dictators are in the eye of the beholder”.

1869

You don’t even need to add; just subtract. Instead of saying that she was stabbed and going on to say “in the hand”, you could just look real serious and intone that — she was stabbed.

1870

Here’s why Trump’s flip-flopping may actually be helping him (from Nate Cohn):

‘He occupies the center. A near majority of voters say Mr. Trump is “not too far” to the left or right on the issues, while only around one-third say he’s “too far to the right.” Nearly half of voters, in contrast, say Ms. Harris is too far to the left; only 41 percent say she’s “not too far either way.”’

1871

At this point, all objective evidence would suggest Trump is likely a slight favorite to win. Harris’s lead is slowly dripping, and she needs to be ahead by at least 3-4 points to be a favorite.

Nate Silver holds that the odds are 60-40 Trump; 538 still has it 53-47 Harris.

1872

My opinion of Silver continues to drop along with his reputation:

He’s an investor in Polymarket, giving him a clear conflict of interest. Plus, this is in the article:

“Patriot Polling is literally run by two right wing high school students that is ranked 240th on FiveThirtyEight,” former pollster Adam Carlson noted on X, asking why that poll was weighted more highly than a YouGov poll, which they called “an internationally respected pollster that is ranked 4th on FiveThirtyEight.”

Huh, what?

OK, but you say “all objective evidence.” Not really. It’s very complicated. It’s not just the top-line polls but also polling of specific demographics and voter enthusiasm by party, fundraising (that’s pretty “objective”: $300 million Dem vs. $130 GOP in August), and so on.

1873

This Atlantic piece, limited giftlink, is pretty harsh. But it shows how Trump has come to redefine the Republicans.

Excerpt:

In the summer of 2015, back when he was still talking to traitorous reporters like me, I spent extended stretches with Donald Trump. He was in the early phase of his first campaign for president, though he had quickly made himself the inescapable figure of that race—as he would in pretty much every Republican contest since. We would hop around his various clubs, buildings, holding rooms, limos, planes, golf carts, and mob scenes, Trump disgorging his usual bluster, slander, flattery, and obvious lies. The diatribes were exhausting and disjointed.

But I was struck by one theme that Trump kept pounding on over and over: that he was used to dealing with “brutal, vicious killers”—by which he meant his fellow ruthless operators in showbiz, real estate, casinos, and other big-boy industries. In contrast, he told me, politicians are saps and weaklings.

“I will roll over them,” he boasted, referring to the flaccid field of Republican challengers he was about to debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library that September. They were “puppets,” “not strong people.” He welcomed their contempt, he told me, because that would make his turning them into supplicants all the more humiliating.

“They might speak badly about me now, but they won’t later,” Trump said. They like to say they are “public servants,” he added, his voice dripping with derision at the word servant. But they would eventually submit to him and fear him. They would “evolve,” as they say in politics. “It will be very easy; I can make them evolve,” Trump told me. “They will evolve.”

Like most people who’d been around politics for a while, I was dubious. And wrong. They evolved.. (The article then proves this in some detail.)

1874

Not even close. The polls- in the purple states also, show Harris with a small lead.

Nate Silver has sold out to the GOP.

1875

And yet the difference between his “sold out” model and 538 is insignificant.

1876

Not in terms of top-line result right now: 538 has it 54 Harris to 46 Trump.

1877

Nate claims trump is 60% favored. 538 shows Harris ahead overall and in most key states. Ahead by only 2-4%, sure, but ahead. The difference between “almost certainly going to lose” vs “very slightly ahead” is enormous.

1878

That’s effin’ ridiculous. The man is making a joke of himself.

1879

“So, Mr. Trump, are you still thinking siphoning off RNC cash to pay your lawyer bills was a good idea?”

1880

But at this point, aren’t the various polling and financial data irrelevant? Neither will accurately predict:

  • How many will actually bother to go and vote; and
  • Who they will vote for.

I believe that it’s impossible to forecast the outcome because there are just too many MAGAs out there who are either sufficiently uninformed or stupid to base their decisions on the correct criteria.