He has fifty million guys lining up to slurp his tool for some reason. They’re standing in the way of his mirror.
Those poll numbers do not look bad at all to my eye.
Also, I haven’t been talking about every little* thing here, but Trump has been more incoherent and crazy than ever. Not to mention glitchy (that is, from dementia, probably).
I’m actually predicting the debate to be not that big a deal. I think Trump will act just as he did in the debate with Biden, and that’s very hard to counter in any rational way. But of course Harris will do fine. Just showing that she can “debate” Trump and keep her cool is probably enough for a bit of a boost.
*Literally hundreds of things that, for anyone else, would be instantly campaign-ending.
Yeah, I don’t understand his appeal to the incel/edgelord crowd. Oh well, I guess I do, kinda.
I heard one stray clip on YouTube when some of the slurpers were talking about his recent online thing with Trump, and they were like, “Dude, that is like the most incredible two hours I’ve ever heard in my life!”
That’s a strange sort of idiocy.
Yeah, they are “promising”.
I concur,
And yep. Harris will wipe the floors with him, but it wont make much difference.
Funny your inside the beltway bit pretty extensively mocks the Silver is a GOP shill canard.
The Morning Consult numbers, while just one set, are very nice to see. A few more like them will be nice too. Remember though that significant systemic errors occur commonly.
Double posting to add what I see as the biggest positive in the MC numbers reported. No real EC advantage to Trump in evidence. National up 3 and key likely tipping point PA (and MI and WI) up 3. GA and NC still lagging national lead but still.
Just one poll but still.
Personally, I think polls are shit now, and that is tanking models, which is why prediction results don’t match outcomes.
Who is answering polls? Any one here participated in a poll in the last month? Year? Four years?
The reluctant Trump supporter from 2016 might have been people who didn’t trust strangers in the phone.
Harris has been invigorating dems. She’s been garnering new voters registering for the first time. I.e. young people. Do young cell savvy people answer calls or texts from random strangers? Or are they suspicious about phishing?
My 80 year old parents hang up on poll calls. And they are landliners.
I see Nate Silver has a conflict of interest. He’s participating in a gambling site, while setting the models that affect how people perceive the potential outcome. He also now has to drive views to get attention, something not true when he worked for ABC. That encourages fudging the numbers to stir up emotions.
Is he a hack? Is he cheating? Is he now a shill? Is he playing a different game of air the pot to stir views to make money?
I don’t know, but it looks unethical. And appearances are often more important than reality when in the public sphere.
I agree with all of your sentiments here.
Another thing about Silver: when he was doing the original 538, he was a star. Then he sold out to ABC, but okay, that’s a major player. Still a star. But now… a substack with a paywall and investing in a gambling site. It seems like quite a fall from his previous heights, even without ethical issues being taken into consideration.
How can Trump win?
He is a known convicted felon with millions of dollars and practically no travel restrictions, and millions of followers willing to lie, cheat and steal for him.
He’s gonna keep on keepin’ on.
He really is a supervillain. Worse than some in the comics.
Funny story. DC had a storyline where Lex Luthor, after everyone had been told of his misdeeds, still became POTUS. I sent DC a nasty note about how they defied common sense and pretty much slapped their readers in the face. Soon after,Trump ran for Prez and won…and I sent a heartfelt apology to DC.
Fair enough but Trump is more like if Solomon Grundy took brain damage in a fall and woke up thinking he was Lex Luthor.
Solomon Grundy is a tragic figure with anger issues. Not really a villain. trump is not tragic, and is a villian.
Haha, did you really? Funny story tho.
Maybe Trump is a mashup of Bizarro and Lex Luthor, in which he is an idiot Lex Luthor but perversely effective.
True story.
Agreed.
What’s maddening, is he’s also a moron.
I think to some degree there’s also the idea behind the complaint “He’s not hurting who he’s supposed to be hurting.” And I do agree that the man proved himself to be absolutely totally unqualified and unable to actually be president and should not be again. But damn if there aren’t a whole lot of people I wouldn’t mind seeing melt down if he won again. Stupid in the actual fact? Sure. The consequences aren’t worth that mild satisfaction.
Will not deny it was an awkward perverse pleasure to see him humble Ted Cruz.