# How can GWB be leading in the Polls??? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 20, 2004, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055 "2004-04-20T17:32:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2004, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/281 "2004-05-15T15:23:50Z")
There’s a lovely graph showing the [trend of Bush’s approval rating](http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_05/003922.php) over at the Washington Monthly today. It looks as if only the combined effects of capturing bin Laden and _another_ short victorious war will be enough to save the president’s bacon. ---
**Author:** ![NDP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ndp/32/55_2.png) [@NDP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NDP)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/282 "2004-08-03T05:53:17Z")
Bumped up [in light of Kerry’s sluggish post-convention showing in the polls.](http://apnews.excite.com/article/20040803/D847E8200.html) ---
**Author:** ![Muad\_Dib](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/35a633/32.png) [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/283 "2004-08-03T05:55:24Z")
> [@NDP](#): > > Bumped up [in light of Kerry’s sluggish post-convention showing in the polls.](http://apnews.excite.com/article/20040803/D847E8200.html) Not that I really want to lend comfort to the left, but the biggest reason for a lack of movement in the polls is that the country is so polorized. There is just not much room for either candidate to move, up or down. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/284 "2004-08-03T06:54:23Z")
This is probably true, but we’ll know for sure after the Republican convention. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/285 "2004-08-03T11:05:45Z")
The real question is, therefore, not how they poll, nor how they poll against likely voters, but who’s actually going to get their asses off the couch and vote this November. I’m sure the fundies are going to do their standard fundie tricks and mobilize in vans. (Not illegal or anything, it’s just, you know, the things they do.) But they did that last election, and they only matched, not beat. And that was with the underdog momentum. This year, the Dems are feeling pressured, bothered, and motivated in ways they havn’t since Bush 1. Maybe earlier. I really can’t call this, despite any showing in the polls. ---
**Author:** ![E72521](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dbc845/32.png) [@E72521](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E72521)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/286 "2004-08-03T11:12:13Z")
I’d like to know how they come up with who is a likely voter. Is it based on past voting history? IMO, many Democrats that usually don’t vote are going to show up on 11/3 and turnout should be about the same for the Republicans, at least here in Florida. Is this a reasonable assumption? ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/287 "2004-08-03T12:34:01Z")
> [@Dob](#): > > From [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/19/bush.kerry.poll/index.html) > > Who the hell are these people surveying?? Did they pull their list from the RNC!?? Do any of these idiots watch TV? Did you see his press conference?? I just dont get it!! I know John Kerry is not the answer, but holy shit, hes a better answer than GWB!!! > > GWB has not handled one freaking thing right in his term…not ONE! He has lied to us again and again. I mean for God’s sake, he walked out on his National Guard duty!! Someone, anyone, give me hope that if this shambling excuse for a President is re-elected our country wont be going to shit!!! > > GWB voters…what the hell do you see in this man? Does he really inspire you in some way? Give you hope? WHAT DAMIT, WHAT??? Ah, bullshit. He hasn’t lied to us about anything and I’m getting really tired of hearing the liberal parrots squawk that line over and over. Herr Goebbels would be real proud of you guys - pick a big lie and repeat it over and over until people start believing it. Straight out of his handbook. I haven’t agreed with everything that Bush has done or not done, but overall, he has been a good President. I’d grade him at a B to B minus. After 8 straight years of Fs in the White House, he’s a very pleasant change. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/288 "2004-08-03T13:29:22Z")
So **Clothahump** Bush never said “we know for a fact…there is no doubt…it is certain that…presently is in possession o…f”? None of those? Because I didn’t hear a President saying “the evidence is ambiguous, so obviously there is room for an inspections regime continuing to clear this up.” …waiting… Where’s **Clothahump** vanished to all of a sudden? ---
**Author:** ![Reloy3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c68b51/32.png) [@Reloy3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reloy3)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/289 "2004-08-03T13:38:16Z")
> [@Mehitabel](#): > > Listen, fellow Dems, do you really think you’re going to win any hearts and minds with phrases like > > and > > I mean, really! My folks are both Republicans and all three of us largely get our news from the same sources: NY Times, NPR, Lehrer Report, New Yorker magazine. We go to the same type of church (although mine is a bit more socially progressive than theirs) and live in the same neighborhood. We all have advanced educations and are pretty tolerant. I’m a Dem, they’re not, but in most of the country they’d probably be considered very liberal for Repubs. > > Now, Dad for one is very very unhappy about Gautanamo Bay; he has no use for those violent deluded guys but thinks they deserve a fair trail, right now. He’s seen my struggles with being underemployed in a post-9/11 economy and doesn’t think much of the tax policies. He was for the war in Iraq but worries about the administration of that country. He admires Kerry as a person although he also feels he represents the boilerplate liberal thinking he’s been having trouble with for forty years. > > So I would say he’s on the fence right now. He knows he has a lot more in common with Kerry, but still…hey, plenty of time for him to decide. > > He walks into a bar. He gets into a conversation with one of the flamers in this thread. He gets an earful of the stuff I quoted above. Now, choose one: > > A) He walks out of the bar converted, with the clear light of Truth and Goodness shining from every pore, and vows to go forth and vote Republican no more. > > B) He stomps out of the bar before he says something he regrets, decides he doesn’t want people who think like those assholes running his country, and mentions the encounter in all the other political discussions he has between now and November. And he has a LOT of friends and we have a big Irish family. > > IJS. 😃 Wahoo - thasnks for expressing just how I feel. I am a moderate, and pride myself on not deciding who to vote for until the last possible minute when I have all the information in front of me. I am concerned about some of what President Bush has done, but I like other things. Senator Kerry has always seemed like a straight shooter (mostly), but I still don’t understand what his plans are. One thing is for sure, when I hear the “Bush is a lying, evil Hitler” or “Kerry is a lying evil anti-Christ”, I have an overwhelming feeling that, no matter what, I don’t want to be associated with, think like, or vote like these people. Seriously, rabid baiting for or against a particular candidate is more likely to make me vote the opposite of what your advocating. ---
**Author:** ![AmericanMaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@AmericanMaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AmericanMaid)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/290 "2004-08-03T13:41:56Z")
**Clothahump** , Bush, after 9/11, promised NYC all the aid they needed to rebuild. Then budgeted $20 billion for NYC relief. How much of that money has been paid out? $9 billion.\* - source: Krugman, Paul. The Great Unraveling: Losing our Way in the New Century. pgs 235 - 237. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/291 "2004-08-03T18:19:08Z")
He appears to have appropriated a good portion of that money for the War in Iraq, by the way. (Source, CBS Newsradio, 880 AM) ---
**Author:** ![NDP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ndp/32/55_2.png) [@NDP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NDP)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/292 "2004-08-03T19:33:58Z")
> [@](#): > > Ah, bullshit. [Bush] hasn’t lied to us about anything and I’m getting really tired of hearing the liberal parrots squawk that line over and over. Herr Goebbels would be real proud of you guys - pick a big lie and repeat it over and over until people start believing it. Straight out of his handbook. > [@](#): > > **MEMO** > > **TO:** Kettle > **FROM:** Pot > **DATE:** August 3, 2004 > **SUBJECT:** Surface Color > > **Message:** You’re black. > cc: Frying Pan BTW, is it too late to invoke Godwin’s Law? ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2004, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/293 "2004-08-03T21:19:10Z")
Normally, I find those posts just plain stupid… But that cc: was hilarious. -Joe, smiling ---
**Author:** ![woodstockbirdybird](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/woodstockbirdybird/32/7905_2.png) [@woodstockbirdybird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woodstockbirdybird)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/294 "2004-08-04T04:51:45Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > I haven’t agreed with everything that Bush has done or not done, but overall, he has been a good President. I’d grade him at a B to B minus. After 8 straight years of Fs in the White House, he’s a very pleasant change. Yeah, all that peace and prosperity was a hellish bitch. p.s You said the _exact same thing_ in your previous post to this thread, so please don’t feel the need to enlighten me with your Presidential grading system if you should find it prudent to reply. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/295 "2004-08-04T22:13:18Z")
On [slate.msn.com](http://slate.msn.com) there’s an [article, posted on August 3rd, by William Saletan](http://slate.msn.com/id/2104745/fr/rss/) analyzing a number of current polls. His conclusion: Bush is in deep doo-doo. He begins by saying: > [@](#): > > If you’ve read or watched news reports about polls taken since the Democratic convention, you’ve probably heard that John Kerry didn’t get much of a “bounce.” These reports miss the important data. Let’s look at the numbers. He then proceeds to show just why he believes the polls are showing things breaking Kerry’s way. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2004, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/296 "2004-08-04T22:16:45Z")
> [@woodstockbirdybird](#): > > Yeah, all that peace and prosperity was a hellish bitch. > p.s You said the _exact same thing_ in your previous post to this thread, so please don’t feel the need to enlighten me with your Presidential grading system if you should find it prudent to reply. Maybe if Dubya had been getting…um…pleasure, we wouldn’t be in a damn fool war. ---
**Author:** ![woodstockbirdybird](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/woodstockbirdybird/32/7905_2.png) [@woodstockbirdybird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/woodstockbirdybird)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2004, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/297 "2004-08-05T01:01:03Z")
> [@Jeff Olsen](#): > > Maybe if Dubya had been getting…um…pleasure, we wouldn’t be in a damn fool war. To be fair, he may have given up “pleasure” after realizing how fucked up his offspring were. ---
**Author:** ![beagledave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6de8d8/32.png) [@beagledave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beagledave)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2004, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/298 "2004-08-05T01:34:38Z")
I’ve posted this in my LJ…but one of the more interesting tracking “devices” is the [Iowa Electronic Markets](http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/). “The Iowa Electronic Markets are real-money futures markets in which contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections. These markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa (Go Hawks!) Tippie College of Business as part of our research and teaching mission” As one paper about the accuracy of the markets points out…rather than asking individuals who they would vote for, traders receive an explicit financial reward tied to correctly answering the question “Who will everyone vote for on election day”? For an example of how real life events affect market share…here is a [graph](http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_DConv04.cfm) of the price of shares of candidates for the Democratic National Convention. People who owned shares of John Kerry on January 13th obviously made a killing. Keeping in mind that this is for popular vote only, [here](http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm) is the daily price graph for Winner Takes All…Bush is trading at 54 cents per share and Kerry is trading at 46 cents per share. (current quotes [here](http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html)) ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2004, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/299 "2004-08-05T02:32:31Z")
Hey, thanks, **Reloy3**. I remember posting that thing. Update: Dad’s still on the fence, leaning towards Kerry, but Mom has a real problem with Kerry’s stance on abortion–she’s heard him say life begins at conception, but then he’s totally pro-choice–partial birth, stem cell, the whole nine months (heh). She sees this as a basic moral disconnect in his mind and thinks that perhaps all of his beliefs will be as malleable as that one, that it symbolizes a lack of moral grounding. I’m also pro-life FWIW but I like Kerry a lot more (My Perfect Candidate has yet to appear), and I’ll keep working on her 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2004, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055/300 "2004-08-05T02:52:57Z")
> [@beagledave](#): > > Keeping in mind that this is for popular vote only, [here](http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm) is the daily price graph for Winner Takes All…Bush is trading at 54 cents per share and Kerry is trading at 46 cents per share. > (current quotes [here](http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html)) You should also probably keep in mind that this “poll” was wrong about the 2000 Presidential election with a bizarre swing from strongly Republican to strongly Democratic right before the [election](http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/graphs/pres00_WTA.gif). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-gwb-be-leading-in-the-polls/241055.md?page=16)