There’s a lovely graph showing the trend of Bush’s approval rating over at the Washington Monthly today. It looks as if only the combined effects of capturing bin Laden and another short victorious war will be enough to save the president’s bacon.
Not that I really want to lend comfort to the left, but the biggest reason for a lack of movement in the polls is that the country is so polorized. There is just not much room for either candidate to move, up or down.
This is probably true, but we’ll know for sure after the Republican convention.
The real question is, therefore, not how they poll, nor how they poll against likely voters, but who’s actually going to get their asses off the couch and vote this November.
I’m sure the fundies are going to do their standard fundie tricks and mobilize in vans. (Not illegal or anything, it’s just, you know, the things they do.) But they did that last election, and they only matched, not beat. And that was with the underdog momentum. This year, the Dems are feeling pressured, bothered, and motivated in ways they havn’t since Bush 1. Maybe earlier. I really can’t call this, despite any showing in the polls.
I’d like to know how they come up with who is a likely voter. Is it based on past voting history? IMO, many Democrats that usually don’t vote are going to show up on 11/3 and turnout should be about the same for the Republicans, at least here in Florida. Is this a reasonable assumption?
Ah, bullshit. He hasn’t lied to us about anything and I’m getting really tired of hearing the liberal parrots squawk that line over and over. Herr Goebbels would be real proud of you guys - pick a big lie and repeat it over and over until people start believing it. Straight out of his handbook.
I haven’t agreed with everything that Bush has done or not done, but overall, he has been a good President. I’d grade him at a B to B minus. After 8 straight years of Fs in the White House, he’s a very pleasant change.
So Clothahump Bush never said “we know for a fact…there is no doubt…it is certain that…presently is in possession o…f”?
None of those?
Because I didn’t hear a President saying “the evidence is ambiguous, so obviously there is room for an inspections regime continuing to clear this up.”
…waiting…
Where’s Clothahump vanished to all of a sudden?
Wahoo - thasnks for expressing just how I feel. I am a moderate, and pride myself on not deciding who to vote for until the last possible minute when I have all the information in front of me. I am concerned about some of what President Bush has done, but I like other things. Senator Kerry has always seemed like a straight shooter (mostly), but I still don’t understand what his plans are.
One thing is for sure, when I hear the “Bush is a lying, evil Hitler” or “Kerry is a lying evil anti-Christ”, I have an overwhelming feeling that, no matter what, I don’t want to be associated with, think like, or vote like these people.
Seriously, rabid baiting for or against a particular candidate is more likely to make me vote the opposite of what your advocating.
Clothahump, Bush, after 9/11, promised NYC all the aid they needed to rebuild. Then budgeted $20 billion for NYC relief. How much of that money has been paid out? $9 billion.*
- source: Krugman, Paul. The Great Unraveling: Losing our Way in the New Century. pgs 235 - 237.
He appears to have appropriated a good portion of that money for the War in Iraq, by the way.
(Source, CBS Newsradio, 880 AM)
BTW, is it too late to invoke Godwin’s Law?
Normally, I find those posts just plain stupid…
But that cc: was hilarious.
-Joe, smiling
Yeah, all that peace and prosperity was a hellish bitch.
p.s You said the exact same thing in your previous post to this thread, so please don’t feel the need to enlighten me with your Presidential grading system if you should find it prudent to reply.
On slate.msn.com there’s an article, posted on August 3rd, by William Saletan analyzing a number of current polls. His conclusion: Bush is in deep doo-doo. He begins by saying:
He then proceeds to show just why he believes the polls are showing things breaking Kerry’s way.
Maybe if Dubya had been getting…um…pleasure, we wouldn’t be in a damn fool war.
To be fair, he may have given up “pleasure” after realizing how fucked up his offspring were.
I’ve posted this in my LJ…but one of the more interesting tracking “devices” is the Iowa Electronic Markets.
“The Iowa Electronic Markets are real-money futures markets in which contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections. These markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa (Go Hawks!) Tippie College of Business as part of our research and teaching mission”
As one paper about the accuracy of the markets points out…rather than asking individuals who they would vote for, traders receive an explicit financial reward tied to correctly answering the question “Who will everyone vote for on election day”?
For an example of how real life events affect market share…here is a graph of the price of shares of candidates for the Democratic National Convention. People who owned shares of John Kerry on January 13th obviously made a killing.
Keeping in mind that this is for popular vote only, here is the daily price graph for Winner Takes All…Bush is trading at 54 cents per share and Kerry is trading at 46 cents per share.
(current quotes here)
Hey, thanks, Reloy3. I remember posting that thing.
Update: Dad’s still on the fence, leaning towards Kerry, but Mom has a real problem with Kerry’s stance on abortion–she’s heard him say life begins at conception, but then he’s totally pro-choice–partial birth, stem cell, the whole nine months (heh). She sees this as a basic moral disconnect in his mind and thinks that perhaps all of his beliefs will be as malleable as that one, that it symbolizes a lack of moral grounding.
I’m also pro-life FWIW but I like Kerry a lot more (My Perfect Candidate has yet to appear), and I’ll keep working on her 
You should also probably keep in mind that this “poll” was wrong about the 2000 Presidential election with a bizarre swing from strongly Republican to strongly Democratic right before the election.
