By considering cost/benefit. Laws designed to restrict homosexuals are increasingly irrelevant, because the longtime feared link between homosexuality and perversity doesn’t exist. There was (and I guess still is) a time in America when homosexuals were feared because it was thought that their goal was to molest children, or spread the word of Satan, or punch Christ in the face, or some other nonsense. The cost of integrating homosexuals into society with the same rights as hetero citizens (including being able to form mutually monogamous marriage contracts) is trivial. At worst, insurance companies might dislike the idea of having to extend employee benefits to same-sex spouses, since up to now they preferred insured homosexuals (and insured people generally) to stay single, which is cheaper, but too badfor them. Also, some people will just have to deal with their feelings of ickiness when a gay married couple moves in next door. That’s also too bad for them. The benefits of same-sex marriage is that a small but significant percentage of your population can lead happier, stabler lives. Couples will be able to pool their resources and make larger capital investments (as in houses), and individuals can have the satisfaction of knowing that by marrying, they can choose their legal next-of-kin and no third party can interfere.
As a potential downside, I expect the advent of gay marriage will inevitably bring about gay divorce, which I assume has the potential to get as vindictive and malicious as straight divorces. At least there won’t be custody issues involved most of the time.
In contrast, consider polygamous marriage which, unlike gay marriage, has been practiced in the U.S. (and other nations) and thus you have actual examples to draw on. In practice, polygamy actually means polygyny, with one man marrying multiple women. Almost invariably, this is paired with a subordinate role for women in the culture, with girls betrothed and married off at young ages to men they didn’t choose for themselves. The cost here is apparant: freedom for the subculture (to practice polygamy) is at the expense of freedom of some individuals within the subculture.
Polygamy-promoters can argue for the right to a gentler form of the practice in which all participants are consenting adults, but they still have that major hurdle to overcome. I wish them luck.
I think by defintion an amendment does not set a legal standard where “there is no changing it”, since a later amendment can do exactly that. In the specific case of GWB, I’ll wager his primary motivation in recent months wasn’t the defense of marriage, but the spectre of not being re-elected.
And they’re free to try. I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. The objective difference between a homoesexual and heterosexual marriage is relatively minor (if we are to treat men and women equally before the law, there shouldn’t really be any distinction) while the difference between a two-person marriage and a three+ person marriage is quite significant in that a whole other person (or people) is directly involved, and has rights that must be respected. A major legal stumbling block is as I described earlier: in the event of incapacitating injury of a member of a polygamous marriage, who is the primary next-of-kin? Can this be determined via a ranking system at the time the marriage contract is written? How do you resolve disputes? Thinking of a future time when decisive action may be required, why create a situtation with an unclear “chain of command”? Also, multiple spouses greatly complicate existing inheritence laws, insurance benefits, social-security benefits, etc.
To take a simpler analogy, one could argue for the right of women to play in the NBA, but it’s quite a different matter to argue that the teams should not be limited to five players.
In the case of ploygamy, that challege has been open since at least 1878 and Reynolds v. United States. Even now, there are lots of consitutional challenges working through the federal court system, many with the basis of “since X is protected behaviour, the similar behaviour Y should be, too”. The vast majority of these die in the lower courts, but the very existence of the potential for challenge should not be used to prevent decision.
Or, just the nation deciding which laws are necessary and which aren’t. My guess is that in the next four years when it becomes clear that Vermont and Massachusetts (not to mention various Canadian provinces) have not managed to bring about the apocalypse, a few additional states/provinces will drop the restriction since it serves no purpose. A number of southern/midwestern states will hold out, of course, perhaps for decades. Brown vs Board of Education didn’t instantly desgregate southern schools except on paper. In practice, it required waiting until the pro-segregationists started to die out, and this fight will likely take a similar path.