# How Can Romney Possibly Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452 "2012-08-24T03:51:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 3\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/241 "2012-09-13T03:51:47Z")
> [@Andiethewestie](#): > > No joke. I mean Game Changer as in the sense of an erstwhile close election now suddenly past the tipping point and Romney is on the downside of losing and losing badly. No he isn’t. If by “losing badly” you mean “losing by a greater margin than is usual” that’s virtually impossible. There’s no realistic scenario, barring a live boy/dead girl revelation, that would gut Romney’s support much lower than it is now. Realistically, the worst Romney could do without bring caught raping a hobo would be if he lost every swing state including North Carolina, which would be a margin of 347-191, actually BETTER than McCain did. That would also probably mean a popular vote margin of 5-6%, probably less than the 2008 margin. Romney will probably lose; he will almost certainly not suffer a bad defeat, though. He has a solid hold on a lot of states. People think of these things as close because the Bush victories were so narrow, but in fact, historically, the EV margin is usually not that close; Obama’s 2008 victory was not at all spectacular by modern standards. Clinton’s 1996 election was more impressive and his 1992 election was about as good as Obama’s; both Reagan victories and Bush 1.0’s win were landslides. Going by the EVs won by the winner: 2008: Obama 365 2004: Bush 286 2000: Bush 271, plus 1 faithless elector 1996: Clinton 379 1992: Clinton 370 1988: Bush 426 1984: Reagan 525 (ouch) 1980: Reagan 489 1976: Carter 297 1972: Nixon 520 1968: Nixon 301 (Last election in which a third party received EVs) 1964: Johnson 486 1960: Kennedy 303 1956: Eisenhower 457 1952: Eisenhower 442 1948: Truman 303 So in 15 post-war elections before 2008, 9 saw the winner take home more EVs than Obama did in 2008. Realistically I don’t see how he takes that many this year; putting together the map, I see a great night for Obama being a 347-191 victory. He won’t hold Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2012, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/242 "2012-09-13T04:25:26Z")
What I’m wondering about is how much Obama beats the [Fair model](http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm). That is, after controlling for incumbency and the state of the economy, who is the stronger candidate? Obama beat an octogenarian with a wholly unqualified Vice President by 1.5 percentage points according to that metric which is respectable but not that amazing. In historical terms the true mismatch was Bush v. Dukkakis: the latter was truly an awful candidate. Two months ago I would have said that Obama would not perform that exceptionally. But after the Republican Convention, Romney’s international gaffe tour, his disgraceful and pathetic deceptions about the State Department’s official positions, I can’t rule out a 3 percentage point victory. Which is large but not off the charts. Still there are 3 debates and jillions of ad dollars to go. Will we see a shred of honor coming from the Romney campaign? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2012, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/243 "2012-09-13T13:20:01Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > As of today Silver has the odds in Colorado 75.7-24.3. But you gave that state to Obama. I gave that state to Obama because Romney didn’t meet the 25% threshold I set. Do you think I incorrectly gave that to Obama? Your ‘but’ seems to suggest that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=12)