# How Can Romney Possibly Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452 "2012-08-24T03:51:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Rampant\_Coypu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/439d5e/32.png) [@Rampant\_Coypu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rampant_Coypu)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/21 "2012-08-24T05:50:41Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > \*Given the rabid hatred and bigotry coming from the Right I’m rather surprised he _hasn’t_ already been assassinated, or even had a close call as far as I can tell. I never really expected him to survive his term. I thought exactly the same thing after all the hate before the election. I have two explanations: 1.The Secret Service is really good. Think about it, would a truly effective counterterrorism force boast of its successes? No, they would not educate their enemies through publicity. The Service is most effective when we have no idea what it does. 2. These “armed insurrection” folks are all talk. Yeah, they hyped some nut to take out Giffords, but that is really the worst they can do. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/22 "2012-08-24T05:59:44Z")
It’s going to be a lot closer than most expect. I think Obama will win but Republicans will keep the House and stay even or make gains in the Senate. I expect another strong Republican showing in 2014. Reasonable voter ID laws, like showing ID, aren’t a bad thing. They won’t decide this election though. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/23 "2012-08-24T06:17:40Z")
> [@Lochdale](#): > > Reasonable voter ID laws, like showing ID, aren’t a bad thing. They won’t decide this election though. 1. There are a fewer scattered cases of voter fraud but virtually no cases of [in person](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/08/repeat-after-me-person-person-person) voter ID fraud. Which is the only kind of fraud that IDs will help with. 2. Meanwhile, thousands get disenfranchised. Cost benefit fail. Unless you want to stop people from voting. There are those who like democracy, but only up to a point. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/24 "2012-08-24T06:18:39Z")
There is no demographic electoral college. It doesn’t really matter what demographic categories you win and lose if your vote totals are higher. It is perfectly possible for Romney to lose blacks, Hispanics and women and still win the election. George W Bush did that in 2004. Romney is running about even with Obama in the popular vote and is close behind in the electoral college. I think Obama will win but Romney absolutely has a reasonable chance especially if he gets his campaign act together. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/25 "2012-08-24T08:08:31Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Bush only got 43% of the women in 2000, for example. And lost that election, of course. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/26 "2012-08-24T09:58:59Z")
[Another demographic](http://www.jpost.com/USPresidentialrace/Article.aspx?id=273208) Romney likely won’t win. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/27 "2012-08-24T10:13:21Z")
How can Romney win? By holding the McCain 2008 states, plus Indiana and North Carolina (in which Romney’s leading in the polls) plus Florida, Ohio, and Virginia (all toss-ups right now) and one more state, probably Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, or Nevada. It’s a tall order, but not impossible. The odds are definitely against him, though. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/28 "2012-08-24T10:34:27Z")
> [@appleciders](#): > > How can Romney win? By holding the McCain 2008 states, plus Indiana and North Carolina (in which Romney’s leading in the polls) plus Florida, Ohio, and Virginia (all toss-ups right now) and one more state, probably Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, or Nevada. It’s a tall order, but not impossible. The odds are definitely against him, though. Holding on to McCain’s states is far from a done deal, though. Arizona might be in play, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/29 "2012-08-24T11:09:10Z")
I think what puzzles me is just the tone of the OP who seems to suggest that right now it somehow “technically impossible” for Romney to win based on polling, and he seems befuddled that pundits are saying the race is close. There’s a few things that really need to be pointed out: 1. Romney’s numbers have gone up since earlier in the cycle, he was down 49% to 43% nationally at one point, now he is at 48 % to 44%. He still trails in key battleground states, but his margins have improved in basically all of them. 2. The margin by which Romney trails, historically, is not at all insurmountable. 3. Obama’s approval rating remains under 50%, which virtually all political pundits will note makes him a “vulnerable” incumbent. 4. No one is saying these polls predict a Romney victory, they actually predict a Romney defeat. I can see being puzzled if people were depicting a Romney victory based on these polls. But also based on these polls, and based on history, it’s close enough still that in the past candidates have overcome such a margin and won the Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/30 "2012-08-24T11:33:09Z")
I don’t know if it’s possible. Obama is not going to make a major Gerry Ford-like debate gaffe, if anything the debates are going to be a test for Romney to suppress his irritability. Certainly the GOP is putting in overtime hours to suppress the Democratic vote in Ohio and Florida. It may well be that it pays off in one of these states but doubtful that it works in both. Even if they resort to playing Jeremiah Wright ads nonstop in October I don’t think it helps them. Those that are disposed to hate Obama already do. Romney’s best bet is a sudden collapse of the Euro and the aftershocks hitting the US in October. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/31 "2012-08-24T11:59:48Z")
I believe, really truly believe, that Romney will lose the popular vote, but gain the electoral college as GOP officeholders in a position to commit electoral fraud cheat on the party’s behalf. I genuinely believe he will win the electoral college through the fraud of others, who will also release false results in other elections to hold onto power for the GOP. And I believe he will get away with it. I hope I am wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/32 "2012-08-24T12:46:16Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > I believe, really truly believe, that Romney will lose the popular vote, but gain the electoral college as GOP officeholders in a position to commit electoral fraud cheat on the party’s behalf. I genuinely believe he will win the electoral college through the fraud of others, who will also release false results in other elections to hold onto power for the GOP. > > And I believe he will get away with it. > > I hope I am wrong. Do you have any evidence to back up this wild accusation? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/33 "2012-08-24T13:01:44Z")
Well, “believe” is a strong term, and may be inappropriate for something that hasn’t happened yet. Let’s say, “expect.” No, I don’t have any evidence of future crimes. And I said I think he’d get away with it. But yeah, I don’t expect an honest count throughout Ohio: > **[2004 United States election voting controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_election_voting_controversies)** > > During the 2004 United States elections, concerns were raised about various aspects of the voting process, including whether voting had been made accessible to all those entitled to vote, whether ineligible voters were registered, whether voters were registered multiple times, and whether the votes cast had been correctly counted. More controversial was the charge that these issues might have affected the reported outcome of the presidential election, in which the incumbent, Republican Preside... But we know that Ohio and Florida Republicans have pulled dirty tricks to win the presidency and all that patronage. This time it may be a different state. I think it’s time to admit that the “Conservative Movement” is a fanatical political faction, with a religious belief in its righteousness and the depravity of its enemies; and as such is capable of a lot of chicanery. \_ As for Romney winning every toss-up, well, Bush did it, maybe Romney can too. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/34 "2012-08-24T13:26:07Z")
[Gallup polling](http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive) shows Obama with a lead in women voters, but it is by the same percentage as Romney is favored by men. Toss up on that point, more or less. Romney is polling with a +12 lead for senior citizens. They tend to turn out and vote. And, of course, make a sizable impact in the key state of Florida. The only age group where Obama has a lead is the youth vote (18-29) where he is polling +24. There are more youth than seniors (old people die) but historically they don’t have as big a turnout percentagewise. Obama is polling +33 with Hispanics. Huge margin. But look at the states where Hispanic populations are largest and will that really be enough to swing a state to the blue column? California is already solidly blue. Texas, despite the large Hispanic population, is solidly red. Hispanic turnout in Florida could be telling. African Americans are polling +85 for Obama. As others mentioned, their populations are most concentrated in solidly red states. Turnout in this demographic will be key as to whether a state could be tipped blue. Blacks, Hispanics, and non-whites are less likely to turnout to vote than the average voter. Finally, Republicans are more likely to turnout to vote. 88% of Republicans are likely voters. 81% of Democrats and 71% of Independents are likely to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/35 "2012-08-24T13:27:31Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > 1. There are a fewer scattered cases of voter fraud but virtually no cases of [in person](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/08/repeat-after-me-person-person-person) voter ID fraud. Which is the only kind of fraud that IDs will help with. > > 2. Meanwhile, thousands get disenfranchised. > > Cost benefit fail. Unless you want to stop people from voting. There are those who like democracy, but only up to a point. From your link: > [@](#): > > Got that? There’s only one kind of fraud that voter ID stops: in-person voter fraud. That is, the kind of fraud where someone walks into a polling place and tries to vote under someone else’s name. That’s it. > > There are plenty of other types of voter fraud, of course. There’s registration fraud, where you send in forms for Mary Poppins and James Bond. There’s insider fraud, where election officials report incorrect tallies. There’s absentee ballot fraud, where you fill in someone else’s absentee ballot and mail it in. But a voter ID law does nothing to stop those kinds of fraud. Even in theory, the only kind of fraud it stops is in-person voter fraud. How about illegal aliens voting? How about felons voting where they are not permitted to? Voter ID is a good tool against that, because while it does not stop the vote from being cast it provides a sufficient evidentiary trail to allow the person who illegally voted to be convicted. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/36 "2012-08-24T13:35:20Z")
Does anyone remember the SDMB, circa November 2004? There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth… fury directed at the center of the country. Angry proposals to split off “Jesusland” into its own nation and the correct, enlightened coastal states into their own, or possibly to join Canada. Above all, baffled fury that Bush could win, because none of your friends voted for him. I think Romney’s got a shot, based solely on the economy. But I might be wrong. And if I am, and Obama wins a second term… well, he’s a decent man and a decent President, and the country won’t collapse. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/37 "2012-08-24T13:55:17Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Voter suppression, getting the Supreme Court to declare him the winner Bush style. Obama being assassinated\* and Biden fumbling the campaign after suddenly becoming the Presidential candidate. > > \*Given the rabid hatred and bigotry coming from the Right I’m rather surprised he _hasn’t_ already been assassinated, or even had a close call as far as I can tell. I never really expected him to survive his term. See, I think the exact opposite would happen. If Obama got whacked, the Republicans would lose those non-pure voters in their ranks in a heartbeat. Rush and his ilk couldn’t resist saying what they felt, and that would drive not only the undecideds but a big part of the base away from the GOP, at least temporarily. The Democratic vote would be 100% of registered Democrats. Nobody would stay home. Barring such a calamity (and it would be, for the country and the world), I don’t see Obama losing. In fact, if they really play some astute ball in the next few weeks, the Democrats could make some gains in both the House and the Senate. Based on what has happened recently, the Republicans can’t get their nutjobs to keep their mouths shut, and they are starting to faction. Toss in a couple of bad debates by Romney and they are, if not toast, at least lightly browned. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/38 "2012-08-24T14:17:27Z")
Romney could win by spreading lies and cheating. He and his Super Pac’s are spending metric butt loads of money telling lies. Republican legislatures across the land are working overtime to make it hard for non-conservative voters to vote. If they are successful in these endeavors, Romney could win. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/39 "2012-08-24T14:31:50Z")
How can Romney win the election? Well, being behind by 0.9 points in the RCP average, he could just convince a few more people to vote for him who are currently undecided. That was easy. The RCP average shows 8-9% undecided. Shouldn’t be too hard for a challenger to do just a little better than the incumbent among these voters. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/40 "2012-08-24T14:33:32Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I think Romney’s got a shot, based solely on the economy. But I might be wrong. > > And if I am, and Obama wins a second term… well, he’s a decent man and a decent President, and the country won’t collapse. Thank Og there are still some sensible conservatives. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=3)