# How Can Romney Possibly Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452 "2012-08-24T03:51:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/41 "2012-08-24T14:34:23Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > Romney could win by spreading lies and cheating. > > He and his Super Pac’s are spending metric butt loads of money telling lies. Republican legislatures across the land are working overtime to make it hard for non-conservative voters to vote. > > If they are successful in these endeavors, Romney could win. By the same token, Obama is using the power of the Presidency to put off a lot of bad news until just after the election. The latest gambit? Urging European leaders to make sure Greece doesn’t exit the Euro until after November. > **[Obama asks eurozone to keep Greece in until after election day](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/obama-asks-eurozone-to-keep-greece-in-until-after-election-day-8076852.html)** > > US officials are worried that if Greece exits the eurozone, it will damage President's election hopes You know, i’ll take even the dirtiest Super PAC lies over the underhanded methods the President is using to create temporarily favorable conditions. He’s putting off MEdicare Advantage cuts, thinking of opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserver, pressuring defense contractors to not issue layoff notices, and now he’s even lobbying Europe to avoid the euro’s fall until he’s reelected. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/42 "2012-08-24T14:50:16Z")
One thing to keep in mind: It’s tempting to look at the list of states Romney must win and say, sure, he might win one or two of them, but what are the odds of him winning _all_ of them? But the mistake in this thinking is that the vote totals in different states are not independent events. Sure, they’re not lockstep: Romney speaking out against the corn industry, for instance, would hurt him in Iowa but probably not in Pennsylvania. But _most_ of the things that will sway one state will sway all of them. If, for instance, he comes out with a detailed tax plan, the country is going to either like it or they won’t. And Ohio will probably feel about the same way about it as Florida does. So, to a large extent, his performance in _all_ of the swing states is going to be correlated. In other words, Romney’s task isn’t to sway a whole bunch of separate races each his way; his task is to sway all of them at once, which is considerably easier. It’s obviously hard, but it’s doable. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/43 "2012-08-24T14:50:16Z")
Don’t underestimate the power of the economy to determine the election. I know the Dems have numbers showing the economy is improving but the reality is that many unemployed/underemployed/barely making it Americans do not believe that the economy is that much improved. Now Mrs. Cad and I were discussing it and we both agree that no one could have done much with the economy in just 4 years whether it is Obama, McCain, Palin, Biden, Paul or Frank in the Executive Mansion. My point to her was that Obama has been talking for 3.5 years about how much the economy has been improving, pollyanna predictions on job creations and so on. To listen to Obama over his term you would think that in 2012 we’d have 3.5% unemployment (and of course no underemployment), almost no deficit, and almost no trace of the economic crisis because of the stimulus and the big boys not failing. Only recently has Obama gone to honestly evaluating the situation and has subtly changed to a “I’m doing the best I (or anybody) can.” For me it’s about three years too late. All that being said, if Romney can channel The Great Communicator’s “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago.” and run a campaign showing all of the ruined predictions and broken promises from Obama/Biden then all of the tax return issues, Obamacare, Bain, alternative energy, “Keeping you in chains” vs. “Legitimate rape” go out the window and the undecideds will vote with their pocketbooks and with the current state of the economy, I just don’t think Obama can win on those terms. Before all of the Dems on the board to defend Obama, understand that for many Americans, voting is not an intellectual execrcise. Take a person out of work for a year or working for 50% of their previous salary or unable to buy a house because of the lack of lending and then ask them: 1. If 4 years of Obama has helped them. 2. If they think 4 more years of Obama will help them. and most will say no. Now add in how your a business man and your ticket knows how the economy works and I guaranty you will be getting votes. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/44 "2012-08-24T15:07:02Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Voter suppression, getting the Supreme Court to declare him the winner Bush style. Obama being assassinated\* and Biden fumbling the campaign after suddenly becoming the Presidential candidate. > > \*Given the rabid hatred and bigotry coming from the Right I’m rather surprised he _hasn’t_ already been assassinated, or even had a close call as far as I can tell. I never really expected him to survive his term. They’ll talk the talk, but probably won’t walk the walk. I always think of that South Park episode where they all get drunk and Cartman tries to re-fight the Civil War; when they all sober up their interest in playing Johnny Reb or Patrick Patriot will vanish, and they’ll all go quietly home to their families. On the other hand all it takes is one lone nut… ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/45 "2012-08-24T15:10:15Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > The thing is, partisanship among likely voters has become extreme. People will refuse to vote for the other side, even if their side nominates a terrible candidate, simply because they can’t stand seeing the other side win, even if that means electing a total loser. I don’t think both sides are equally to blame: I think the balance of lying and deceiving is clearly heavier on the GOP side, but my point stands. It doesn’t matter what the truth is, it matters that people defiantly believe their version is the one that is true. It also doesn’t matter if they don’t vote for the other side though, being disgusted enough to not vote is half as good. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/46 "2012-08-24T15:17:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > By the same token, Obama is using the power of the Presidency to put off a lot of bad news until just after the election. The latest gambit? Urging European leaders to make sure Greece doesn’t exit the Euro until after November. > > [Obama asks eurozone to keep Greece in until after election day | The Independent | The Independent](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/barack-obama-asks-eurozone-to-keep-greece-in-until-after-election-day-8076852.html) > > You know, i’ll take even the dirtiest Super PAC lies over the underhanded methods the President is using to create temporarily favorable conditions. He’s putting off MEdicare Advantage cuts, thinking of opening the Strategic Petroleum Reserver, pressuring defense contractors to not issue layoff notices, and now he’s even lobbying Europe to avoid the euro’s fall until he’s reelected. First sentence of your sourced article: (bolding mine) The Obama administration\*\* will pressure \*\*European governments not to let Greece fall out of the eurozone before November’s Presidential elections, **British Government sources have suggested** Your takeaway:, first sentence, “is using.” Please note that \*\*sources suggesting \*\*the President **may** is not the same as **is**. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/47 "2012-08-24T15:54:03Z")
The Drudge Report is linking to a [news release on the U of Colorado Boulder](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says) webpage which refers to an analysis by some of their Political Science professors. This analysis is to be published in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. > [@](#): > > For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008. Their model, which takes into account state and national unemployment rates and per capita income, predicts a Romney win. An interesting note is their observation that “[v]oters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.” Unemployment rates haven’t been good under Obama. If voters hold him responsible then he’s out. It would be hard to make a significant dent in unemployment between now and election time. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/48 "2012-08-24T15:58:07Z")
Iggy, I saw that yesterday, on the CNN or AOL homepage, and I’m not sure it amounts to much more than cold fusion in a flask, at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/49 "2012-08-24T16:00:47Z")
> [@](#): > > For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. I’ll bet you that the model either predicted a Gore win in 2000, and claims it as “correct” because of the popular vote, or that it predicted a Bush win in 2000, and claims it as “correct” because of the outcome of the electoral college. But the thing is, neither of those predictions would have been correct. If the model were truly good, what it would have predicted for 2000 was “Razor-thin margins and too close to call”, and I’ll bet you that it didn’t predict anything of the sort. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/50 "2012-08-24T16:01:19Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > The Drudge Report is linking to a [news release on the U of Colorado Boulder](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says) webpage which refers to an analysis by some of their Political Science professors. This analysis is to be published in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. > > Their model, which takes into account state and national unemployment rates and per capita income, predicts a Romney win. > > An interesting note is their observation that “[v]oters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.” > > Unemployment rates haven’t been good under Obama. If voters hold him responsible then he’s out. It would be hard to make a significant dent in unemployment between now and election time. The trouble with models is that it’s such a small sample size. We haven’t had that many presidential elections in real numbers in the past 100 years. Until 2008, you could have predicted that no African American would be elected president. What matters is not directly related to economic numbers, but “whether the voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms.” That kind of thing can be influenced by a well run campaign. If it was simply the economic indicators mentioned by that article, Romney could sit home between now and November and just show up in January. I don’t see that as likely. Political Science is more politics than science. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/51 "2012-08-24T16:11:03Z")
Contrary to earlier (and obviously wrong) reports, Romney has 6% of the black vote. Dig into the specifics of the poll, and you’ll see that Romney has significant reason to be hopeful. > **[Fox News poll: Race for the White House tightens](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-race-for-the-white-house-tightens)** > > Less than a week before the Republican convention begins, the race for the White House is a virtual tie.  According to a Fox News poll of likely voters, the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan ticket receives the backing of 45 percent, while the Barack... ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/52 "2012-08-24T16:18:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’ll bet you that the model either predicted a Gore win in 2000, and claims it as “correct” because of the popular vote, or that it predicted a Bush win in 2000, and claims it as “correct” because of the outcome of the electoral college. But the thing is, neither of those predictions would have been correct. If the model were truly good, what it would have predicted for 2000 was “Razor-thin margins and too close to call”, and I’ll bet you that it didn’t predict anything of the sort. The model analyzes electoral votes, not popular votes. It got the electoral vote winner correct. And that’s what matters. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/53 "2012-08-24T16:44:47Z")
The model “predicted” 8 elections with 7 explanatory variables. Anybody who know statistics will tell you that leads to less than robust results. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/54 "2012-08-24T17:08:52Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > One thing to keep in mind: It’s tempting to look at the list of states Romney must win and say, sure, he might win one or two of them, but what are the odds of him winning _all_ of them? But the mistake in this thinking is that the vote totals in different states are not independent events. Sure, they’re not lockstep: Romney speaking out against the corn industry, for instance, would hurt him in Iowa but probably not in Pennsylvania. But _most_ of the things that will sway one state will sway all of them. If, for instance, he comes out with a detailed tax plan, the country is going to either like it or they won’t. And Ohio will probably feel about the same way about it as Florida does. So, to a large extent, his performance in _all_ of the swing states is going to be correlated. > > In other words, Romney’s task isn’t to sway a whole bunch of separate races each his way; his task is to sway all of them at once, which is considerably easier. It’s obviously hard, but it’s doable. Yes this is an important point which I have made myself. People seem to have an intuitive idea that Romney needs to do something like winning four independent coin tosses in order to win states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado together. That would indeed be difficult but in reality the probabilities are co-related. All he needs is to gain 2-3 points in these states which could happen through a single cause, say he sharpens his campaign message along with a massive ad barrage from him and his outside supporters. There is probably enough diversity in these states to give Obama a bit of a cushion; it will be difficult to move all of them but like you say it’s certainly doable. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/55 "2012-08-24T17:12:31Z")
He joked today in Michigan that nobody ever asked to see his birth certificate. When he can unleash such brilliant wit, how can he lose? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/56 "2012-08-24T17:14:42Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Yes this is an important point which I have made myself. People seem to have an intuitive idea that Romney needs to do something like winning four independent coin tosses in order to win states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado together. That would indeed be difficult but in reality the probabilities are co-related. All he needs is to gain 2-3 points in these states which could happen through a single cause, say he sharpens his campaign message along with a massive ad barrage from him and his outside supporters. People often forget than in 1980, the Reagan-Carter race was too close to call until the debate (which happened almost immediately before the election.) If anything Carter was a slight favourite. The debate buried Carter. Nothing like it has happened since… but who’s to say it couldn’t happen again? If the election were held next Tuesday I’m pretty sure Obama wins. But there’s a lot of time left for something to happen. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/57 "2012-08-24T17:27:29Z")
I know it seems like the campaign has been going on forever, but the real campaign doesn’t generally start until after Labor Day. We’re just in the starting blocks right now. The gun will go off shortly, so no need to be hasty about drawing conclusions. Hroom! ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/58 "2012-08-24T17:33:48Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Iggy, I saw that yesterday, on the CNN or AOL homepage, and I’m not sure it amounts to much more than cold fusion in a flask, at the moment. If the “predictions” weren’t published before the relevant elections took place, it’s worthless retroactive construction, a la the “Bible Code”. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/59 "2012-08-24T17:35:16Z")
> [@Enkel](#): > > How can Romney win? Diebold Diebold doesn’t make voting machines anymore. They split that part of their business off into a separate company, Premier Election Solutions. Apparently it’s now owned by Dominion Voting Systems. Diebold itself is back to concentrating on its main products, which are ATMs and other similar products for banks. I’m sure you’ve seen the name “Diebold” on ATMs. It’s very common – they’re one of the biggest manufacturers. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/60 "2012-08-24T17:37:01Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > The model analyzes electoral votes, not popular votes. It got the electoral vote winner correct. And that’s what matters. The model is capable of predicting Supreme Court decisions? Does it also do lottery numbers? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=4)