# How Can Romney Possibly Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452 "2012-08-24T03:51:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/61 "2012-08-24T18:06:43Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > It also doesn’t matter if they don’t vote for the other side though, being disgusted enough to not vote is half as good. And this explains a significant component of the GOP’s tactics. Accusations of giving over sovereignty to the U.N. (or birtherism or any number of egregious lies about Obama and his record) are part of trying to ensure that GOP votes don’t stay home in disgust because the GOP nominee is a dud. If the threat of an Obama re-election seems horrifying enough, they’ll vote for the dud. ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/62 "2012-08-24T18:50:03Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > The model analyzes electoral votes, not popular votes. It got the electoral vote winner correct. And that’s what matters. The [13 keys to the white house](http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jPHA9S1A04_F31bVXxPVx1SwTpng?docId=CNG.d1079a01eeff3fe52666fea7405c023c.41) has also been correct and Lichtman is predicting Obama will win. Well, one of the two has to be wrong. I wouldn’t put much stock in either one personally ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/63 "2012-08-24T18:54:15Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > And this explains a significant component of the GOP’s tactics. Accusations of giving over sovereignty to the U.N. (or birtherism or any number of egregious lies about Obama and his record) are part of trying to ensure that GOP votes don’t stay home in disgust because the GOP nominee is a dud. If the threat of an Obama re-election seems horrifying enough, they’ll vote for the dud. It also explains the “gonna put y’all back in chains”, “Romney is a felon”, and “Romney killed my wife” lines of attack. You have to make sure the Dem base gets out to vote even if the incumbent is a dud. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/64 "2012-08-24T20:01:15Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > It also explains the “gonna put y’all back in chains”, “Romney is a felon”, and “Romney killed my wife” lines of attack. You have to make sure the Dem base gets out to vote even if the incumbent is a dud. True, true, false but if the woman had lived in Massachusetts she might have done better. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/65 "2012-08-24T21:22:23Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I know it seems like the campaign has been going on forever, but the real campaign doesn’t generally start until after Labor Day. We’re just in the starting blocks right now. The gun will go off shortly, so no need to be hasty about drawing conclusions. Hroom! +1. But I think Romney is just going to lose ground. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/66 "2012-08-24T21:31:07Z")
Romney has a good chance because he’s running against Obama. It pains me to say it, but its a close tie between Carter and Obama for lack of leadership. We’ve seen it constantly. Remember how close we came to defaulting last summer? There was no leadership to break the deadlock. We got a single golf game between Boehner and Obama. We got to get some leadership. I’m not a big fan of Romney, but he’s the only choice we got. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/67 "2012-08-24T22:07:08Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > The only states now where blacks matter are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not sure exactly what you mean there. Among actual battleground states, the black turnout was surely critical in swinging Virginia and North Carolina blue last time. Maryland would not have been a Democratic lock (for President) the last five times without black voters. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/68 "2012-08-24T22:40:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > People often forget than in 1980, the Reagan-Carter race was too close to call until the debate (which happened almost immediately before the election.) If anything Carter was a slight favourite. > > The debate buried Carter. Nothing like it has happened since… but who’s to say it couldn’t happen again? > > If the election were held next Tuesday I’m pretty sure Obama wins. But there’s a lot of time left for something to happen. If the debate becomes a significant factor, then it will be Romney who will be buried, depending on how much he weasels out of tough questions or simply flubs one. Obama simply is a much better debater. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/69 "2012-08-24T22:48:28Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > If the debate becomes a significant factor, then it will be Romney who will be buried, depending on how much he weasels out of tough questions or simply flubs one. Obama simply is a much better debater. [third grade]Would you say he is a master?[/third grade] ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/70 "2012-08-24T23:05:38Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Diebold doesn’t make voting machines anymore. They split that part of their business off into a separate company, Premier Election Solutions. Apparently it’s now owned by Dominion Voting Systems. > > Diebold itself is back to concentrating on its main products, which are ATMs and other similar products for banks. I’m sure you’ve seen the name “Diebold” on ATMs. It’s very common – they’re one of the biggest manufacturers. Yes, but the original machines are still out there. Another problem with the machines (in addition to the easily tampered with issue) is that they could have just plain bad programming. Those machines that provide NO documentation for audit were about the worst idea ever. How can anyone prove that they are not altered or tampered with at the time of the vote? I would love to see a funded study that compares how polling in advance of an election compare to actual election results and exit polling on a _county-by-county basis_ to see if there is a statistical difference between the results in those counties where certain manufacture machines are used and those counties that use no machines at all (if there are any still left). Any deviation between polling and actual results should be approximately the same across all counties. But if there is a significantly higher deviation in those counties using xyz polling machines, wouldn’t that make you wonder why? The machine shouldn’t impact how often people lie about their vote. Maybe the machine interface is confusing or maybe the manufacturer is a bad-actor. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/71 "2012-08-24T23:15:59Z")
How does he win? He wins the states he is expected to win and of those potentially in flux he wins FL, NC, VA, and OH. He still loses PA, CO, NV, WI, MI, and NH. Or some other combination that is far from impossible that gets him to 270 or more, loses OH and wins PA, or even MI … Sure it would be tough if he loses FL, he’d need to run OH, PA and at least a CO (but of course WI or MI would do too). Not impossible. Who bothers to come out that day? Ryan can come off almost rational and will likely debate well. He’s no Palin. He may not scare that many voters away yet the combination of pandering with him to fiscal conservative Tea Party group and pandering to the birther style group at the same time my get the GOP base out. A lot of the demographics that voted for Obama before don’t usually vote … Romney has not lost yet. (Oh the odds are against him … but there are lots of ads yet to be bought and his PACS have lots and lots of money.) ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/72 "2012-08-24T23:22:02Z")
With the economy in the tank and people appreciably worse off than they were four years ago surely the question should be how can he possibly lose? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/73 "2012-08-25T02:20:50Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > With the economy in the tank and people appreciably worse off than they were four years ago surely the question should be how can he possibly lose? The obvious disputing of your premise aside: by losing more than 270 electoral votes. Which pathways to an electoral college victory do you see as _probable_ events? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/74 "2012-08-25T02:41:12Z")
> [@Ambivalid](#): > > So let’s recap the groups that Romney has alienated or outright lost: > > 1. African-Americans. And here I thought Blacks had been voting overwhelmingly Democrat since the early 1930’s. > [@](#): > > 1. Women. I started to type something, but [this](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/24/the-gender-gap-and-why-its-nothing-new/) is a lot more convenient to link to. > [@](#): > > 1. Hispanics and immigrants. Hispanics, maybe. Immigrants, you’ll have to define by what you mean (do you mean immigrants of Hispanic origin?). ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/75 "2012-08-25T02:54:57Z")
$2 billion of campaign funding? ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/76 "2012-08-25T04:38:53Z")
How can he win? Are you serious? The Republicans could not have picked a worse candidate (well they could have, but still) and yet I think he has a good chance to win. Why? To me it is simple. Obama was given a mandate to change things in Washington. By the people of this country. In four years, he has changed little, and if anything has kept the status quo in many areas. How many Americans can say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago? I know a couple of people who have been unemployed for Obama’s entire term. They also voted for Obama. Guess who they aren’t voting for this time around? I think this is where the election will get interesting. Many moderate voters rolled the dice on Obama because they saw McCain as more of the same inside the beltway bullshit. I met John McCain and was amazed at the guy’s energy while on the campaign trail. But there is no way in hell Id vote for anyone dim enough to put Sarah Palin on the ticket. What scared me is how many people actually liked her. It tells you how uninformed this country is. Sarahnwas and is one of them… Middle America. I’d say us, but I can’t include myself in a subset that she is in. Anyway, like many Americans I was hopeful for a successful Obama presidency. This country is in deep doo-doo, and he has done nothing to change it. NOTHING. If anything, it has become worse, especially for middle aged Americans who have been out of the workforce for so long. They can’t seem to find their way back onto the ride, so to speak. So even if Romney has lost all the votes you claim, and I doubt that he has completely, a lot of Obama voters tired of Bush and Cheney are not pleased with what they got with their vote. I predict a very close election. And right now, I don’t have a feel for which way it will go. If you told me at the beginning of the primaries that good ole Mitt would have taken the nomination, I would have been shocked. Well, he did that. I will not be shocked this fall if he beats Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/77 "2012-08-25T04:50:51Z")
Your response is long on subjective impressions are lacks much objective response to ‘how does he get to 270’? Anecdotes probably aren’t very predictive. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/78 "2012-08-25T05:02:18Z")
Willard could theoretically win in the iOS game called “Vote!!!” in which the candidates beat each other up with microphones, bratwurst, yard signs, chickens and light sabers. At present, the game is favoring Obama by about 2:1 based on how many players are choosing to play which character, but with the “vote count” at just under three-quarters of a million, that could easily change rather quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/79 "2012-08-25T07:36:03Z")
Frankly, I think the way Romney could win is by making [the electoral map look like this](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=tyz) on Election Day. Looking at Nate Silver’s %'s I already consider Colorado, Florida and Iowa to be lost to Romney. Virginia is very much on the brink of going red and with Ryan on the ticket I think it likely Wisconsin is up for grabs. I really think that is Romney’s most likely route to the White House. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2012, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/80 "2012-08-25T09:56:57Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > well, he’s a decent man and a decent President, and the country won’t collapse. What would qualify a president as indecent? Given Obama’s support for abortion, I think you’re being overly generous. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=5)