# How Can Romney Possibly Win? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 24, 2012, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452 "2012-08-24T03:51:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/101 "2012-08-26T01:05:45Z")
That’s based mostly on Rasmussen shit. Take comfort in it if you like. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/102 "2012-08-26T01:11:49Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > Not sure exactly what you mean there. Among actual battleground states, the black turnout was surely critical in swinging Virginia and North Carolina blue last time. Maryland would not have been a Democratic lock (for President) the last five times without black voters. During the 2008 primary I looked at the size of the black population as a % in various states and considered how blacks turn out 9-1 democratic. It isn’t just those states, states like NY, CA, NJ, MI, IL, DE, etc. would be swing states or slightly red instead of pretty solidly democratic if not for the black vote. As an example, in 2004 IL went democratic by 10 points, and the black vote was about 13% of the electorate (so about 12 net points for Kerry 13 - 1.3 = 11.7). Add that in to states like VA, FL, OH, etc and the black vote is integral to 200+ electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/103 "2012-08-26T01:19:01Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Martin Hyde** : > > However as I thought about it some I don’t know that the black vote is especially important in any state, even battleground states. Namely because it has historically been so monolithic, the voters that matter are the ones who can actually be swayed to vote for a certain candidate. Because the black vote is so monolithic, basically every election since 1980 you can assume they’re voting overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate. Not really. Blacks _haven’t_ overwhelmingly voted for the Democratic candidate. They _have_ overwhelmingly not voted for the Republican candidate, but they also have rather low turnout rates compared to other demographics. Blacks were a significant part of Obama’s 2008 victory not because he appealed to a significantly higher proportion of them, but because he got a higher proportion of them to actually come to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/104 "2012-08-26T01:19:06Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > That’s based mostly on Rasmussen shit. Take comfort in it if you like. Only Iowa. The other two “Barely Romney” states are based on other polling. Rasmussen is actually more pessimistic than the other pollsters on Missouri. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/105 "2012-08-26T01:29:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > That may be his most likely route but _are_ you looking at Nate Silver’s maps? The same ones I am? Colorado and Iowa he has both at over 60% probability as Obama. Florida is a virtual coin flip. Hard to say that that supports counting them as in the bag for Romney. Virginia at a 60% probability for Obama is far from in the bag for Obama but it is an uphill battle for Romney to win it. And Ryan is not broadly popular in Wisconsin - maybe he’ll bump the state closer a bit, maybe not, but most optimistically (to a GOP POV) to a coin flip. Just me being a total pessimist. I refuse to get cocky about this so anything Silver has at 65% or less Obama I am considering a state Romney could still get. And frankly, I consider anything possible in Wisconsin. Just putting Ryan on the ticket was enough for Obama to drop a few points. I’m not counting Florida for Obama just because of history and the fact it is so close. Iowa and Colorado have much more motivated Republican (evangelical) bases so I don’t count on them either. Call me crazy but if I expect the worst I figure I might be pleasantly surprised. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/106 "2012-08-26T01:46:41Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > … anything Silver has at 65% or less Obama I am considering a state Romney could still get. … Oh that is a very reasonable statement. Saying that anything that Silver has less than 65% for Obama is in the bag for Romney OTOH was not. Look I am still worried too. Team Romney has a _shitload_ of money to spend and Team Obama may start to come up relatively short as it goes into the homestretch. Those who are swayable at that point are swayable by idiotic attack ads. Those states will be _flooded_ with anti-Obama attack ads 24/7 those last few weeks. As milquetoast as Romney is, those ads will get their base out for him. If they also get the apathetic middle to not bother to vote and the Democratic base is not similarly revved … plus _things_ may happen … It is not time to be cocky just yet. I agree. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/107 "2012-08-26T02:25:39Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That isn’t what the polls say. About 35 out of 50 states are effectively already decided, and the current polls generally suggest an Obama victory based on results and trends in the swing states. **This isn’t one poll, it’s ALL of them**. Citation needed. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/108 "2012-08-26T02:55:58Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Citation needed. 538, for one. It’s all metapolling analysis; they don’t go by one poll. And he nailed every state last time out except Missouri, which was decided by the slimmest of margins (so actually he was just as close there as anywhere.) If you’re better at predicting elections than Nate Silver, I’d love to hear what insight you have he does not. If you aren’t, then the evidence would appear to be that Obama is winning. So what can Romney do to change that? That’s an interesting question, I think. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/109 "2012-08-26T04:39:16Z")
The swing state polls consistently show that Obama has around 300 electoral votes as of today. But the leads are slim. A two point swing nationally would put Romney at 300 easily. But history shows that after Labor Day it’s a whole new election. The polls have been stable because 90-92% of voters are already decided. But that still leaves swings of as much as 8-10 points possible, and as likely voter models get perfected things could swing even more. They start asking people if they know where their polling place is, and the closer you get to an election, the more that answer matters for finding out if people will actually vote or are just blowing smoke. So after Labor Day, one or the other candidates could easily just vault into a big lead despite the current stability of the race. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/110 "2012-08-26T04:42:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you’re better at predicting elections than Nate Silver, I’d love to hear what insight you have he does not. If you aren’t, then the evidence would appear to be that Obama is winning. So what can Romney do to change that? That’s an interesting question, I think. Nate Silver’s model has its limitations, as he will admit. At this point, his model relies as much on historical economic indicators as polling. The problem with the former is that there aren’t enough elections to provide a good sample and the problem with the latter is that it’s still early. And I don’t think he ever claimed to be able to predict elections, so much as use statistical tools to provide better models than anyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/111 "2012-08-26T05:17:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The polls have been stable because 90-92% of voters are already decided. But that still leaves swings of as much as 8-10 points possible… That’s not really true, because most “independent” voters [aren’t really independent](http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CD4QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2011%2F07%2F17%2F995375%2F-Independent-voters-are-actually-closet-partisans&ei=_7A5UMrvLoWfiAK_oIG4CQ&usg=AFQjCNH_KI9-r1Ta3Yw4k542gCkvZw_VZw&sig2=cnxWFlzA7stw5XST4Vzu-A), but rather mostly [vote consistently for one side](http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/08/22/159588275/are-independents-just-partisans-in-disguise). A majority of the undecideds actually know who they’re going to vote for already; they just don’t commit until the time comes, but their likely vote is consistent with past voting habits. Best guesses are that only 2-4% of voters or less are truly swing voters for the most recent Presidential elections. The biggest variable ends up being voter turnout. And, consistently, the more people turn out, the more likely a Democrat is to win. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/112 "2012-08-26T05:36:29Z")
Wasn’t referring to independents, but current undecideds. The RCP average has Obama leading Romney 46.8-45.5. That leaves 7.7% undecided. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/113 "2012-08-26T05:43:34Z")
As I post, two thread titles are adjacent in the Elections List: [ul][li] How Can Romney Possibly Win?[/li][li] Pennsylvania Upholds Voter ID Law[/li][/ul] In other threads right-wingers claim that the purpose of voter suppression laws is to increase citizen confidence in the validity of election results. Count me among the many many who believe they have the opposite effect. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/114 "2012-08-26T05:54:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Wasn’t referring to independents, but current undecideds. The RCP average has Obama leading Romney 46.8-45.5. That leaves 7.7% undecided. The point is, those 7.7% are mostly not really undecided, less than half, probably. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/115 "2012-08-26T05:55:19Z")
Unlikely. Maybe if the election was decided by less than 1000 votes, but in those cases both sides tend to think they got cheated. For every voter kept away with voter ID laws, there will be a felon that did get to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Ambivalid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a5b964/32.png) [@Ambivalid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambivalid)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/116 "2012-08-26T06:07:39Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > As I post, two thread titles are adjacent in the Elections List: > [ul][li] How Can Romney Possibly Win?[/li][li] Pennsylvania Upholds Voter ID Law[/li][/ul] > > In other threads right-wingers claim that the purpose of voter suppression laws is to increase citizen confidence in the validity of election results. Count me among the many many who believe they have the opposite effect. Right but my question was specifically in regards to such voter obstacles; as in how can Romney possibly win _without_ ‘rigging the game’ somehow. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/117 "2012-08-26T06:16:18Z")
Easy: beat Obama among current undecideds. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/118 "2012-08-26T06:27:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Easy: beat Obama among current undecideds. That won’t be enough. To win Romney needs to beat Obama on voter turnout in the “swing” states. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/119 "2012-08-26T06:44:32Z")
That’s true only if the pollsters aren’t accurately modelling turnout. Which they probably aren’t, but we can’t know yet on which side they are erring. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2012, 8:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452/120 "2012-08-26T08:42:06Z")
> [@a35362](#): > > What, you get married and change sides? That’s one explanation of what occurs. [This resource](http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/127/the-effect-of-marriage-on-political-identification) gives a pretty good treatment to the various theories. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-romney-possibly-win/632452.md?page=7)