Why would this be true? In this particular scenario, it’s a free market with no barriers to entry. If I want to open up “Joe’s discount car rental service” in a particular city, I just buy some used self driving cars and charge users a price that undercuts the competition but is still profitable to me.
In this scenario, what happens is that the market price becomes just cost + razor thin profit margin.
Now, think about the costs. If you rent a car from Hertz car rental, that car is a $10,000-$30,000 asset that they no longer have available until you return it some days later. If you rent a robo-taxi, they only lose the taxi for as long as it takes you to reach your destination and for the taxi to make it back to dispatch.
Self-Driving cars will probably be more expensive than we pay for automobiles now, true. The massive amount of sensors and electronics they need could easily add $10,000+ to the cost even in full scale mass production.
Still, that’s a small factor compared to all the other costs of owning and operating a vehicle.
First of all, let me point out that self-driving cars should be mandatory for a lot of posters in this thread. This isn’t the Pit so I’ll temper my response - let’s just say that people should know that there is a major difference between a dedicated hardware and software system like a self-driving car would have vs the general purpose computer cobbled together with a general purpose OS like people are using for an example.
Ultimately, the legal issue will be that an owner will be responsible for their car just like now. I suspect a selling point would be lower insurance rates because by the OP’s numbers the SDC will drive better than 90% of the population.
Hawaii “exempts a nonreckless guided operator from liability.” Meanwhile Wasington’s version states that a “licensed driver is legally responsible for the autonomous vehicle for traffic infractions and criminal offenses in the same manner as a driver of a nonautonomous vehicle.” At some point common standards will have to emerge.
Mix that with electrics like a nissan leaf and some flavor of automated charging stations in various strategic locations around town and fuel becomes a negligible cost. Electrics also do not require alot of the regular preventative maintenance that regular cars do like various fluid changes or smog checks.
Make arrangements with a few large retailers who might just happily pay for the power just as an incentive to customers who use the car service as “off duty” cars tend to charge in the parking lot making it quick to leave store with minimal waiting.
I think Singapore is a prime candidate to be an early adopter -
a) the country is really small, so mapping roads down to very precise dimensions is (relatively) easy
b) Cars are already grossly expensive - so the cost is not so much of a worry (typically a subcompact goes for about $70,000 USD at the moment)
c) The govt has tonnes of money
d) It’s got very well developed infrastructure
e) There is a “license” to own a car - which must be renewed every ten years. This means the car fleet is young AND it is (80%) replaced within a 10 year window - so there is a shorter time to critical mass
I’m imagining something similar in terms of “seats” -
But based on units of 90 cm wide by 1.3m long - which should be very comfortable for just a seat. each will be self contained. They will “link” to make units roughly equivalent to current cars.
two of you travelling? Get two “units” - they will couple and the central divider will retract.
You and a stranger going to work - the vehicles will couple, but the privacy wall remains in place.
Need space for your groceries? It’ll either be a 90cm x 130 cm seat plus a 90cm x 130 cm bucket beside OR - if you are a couple 2 seats plus two buckets behind.
Need furniture delivered? Then four “cargo carriers” will couple to give you a pallet 1.8m x 2.6m (or 3.9m if needed) - remember, the shop can load it, and dispatch it then you (or whoever) can unload it at the destination.
As to the concern of empty vehicles running around - I think this will be more than offset by a reduction in the number of needless trips i.e drop kids to school, drive home - if the kids are big enough to get themselves to school the drive home part is now not needed.
That doesn’t make the slightest bit of sense. Even considering the additional cost to maintain the cars (cleaning, washing, maintenance, etc) and the fact that there would have to be substantial redundancy (for rush hour, longer trips on weekends, etc) there would still be multiple users of the cars. There’s no way a business would develop where a company would be pulling in, say, a few thousand dollars of revenue per month per each car. A company like that would be obscenely profitable, and competition would surely lower the price substantially.
+1 to this. The only way this happens is when artificial or natural barriers prevent competition. It’s funny you mentioned cellular phones, because the cellular phone providers occupy a natural monopoly. There is a finite amount of RF spectrum available at all, and 3 companies own almost all of it. No one new can enter the market, because all the available RF spectrum has already been sold.
From yesterday’s USA Today: GM exec to Congress: Self-driving cars are not ready
They all seem to be afraid of the liability issue and think doing it piecemeal for now, with the driver in control, seems to be the way to go. There are some that want to jump right in, but perhaps the best way is the somewhat slower approach until the law catches up and society gets used to more automated cars.