How Can Truth Social be worth $6 Billion? {Trump Media & Technology (DJT)}

I don’t know if any of these net worth numbers are really official in any meaningful sense.

I regret not being more adventurous and buying put options in this crap. I could have made some decent money.

Yes, it is. Furthermore Trump may have difficulty pulling money from this scam, if prices collapse quickly enough.

But it is standard practice in reporting. Bill Gates was a billionaire during the 1990s because of his stock holdings in Microsoft. But if he sold a big chunk of those shares, the price would have collapsed. Same for Elon Musk today. Estimates of net worth are highly qualified.

I agree with this. Many MAGA members are in a UFO cult. The less-committed cult members might peel away. Fox News is a powerful counter-force. And the MAGA cult has survived despite Trump’s disinterest in financially assisting the Jan 4 rioters - I think he’s attended a total of one fund raiser for them. But this pump and dump scheme is a daily and very public humiliation for the Truth Social marks.

I honestly think that Trump himself could go on live TV after this stock is de-listed and state that anyone who bought shares was an idiot and a sucker, and he himself made lots of money from them…

And he would lose maybe 5% of the MAGAt faithful.

“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

Agree w @Gyrate. Sorta.

IMO @Gyrate is 100% right that the only thing breathing any price support into TS today is trump. It’s worth ~$27 (or whatever) today only because of trump and would be worth 4 cents tomorrow if trump was to die overnight.

However the same logic applies earlier in time. The stock was at $40 to 60-something for the last couple of months because the only thing breathing any price support into TS then was trump.

Or more accurately the adulation that follows his scheming heart for some crazy reason.

So while trump is arguably “doing good” in that he’s preventing the people who now have it at $27 from seeing total collapse, he’s also “doing bad” in that it would never have gotten to the speculative highs without him either.

His psychotic charisma hoisted them high and now he’s holding the rope that, if/when released, will let them fall. Can’t have the latter without having had the former.

Shares dipped even lower seemingly in response to the company announcing it intended to launch a streaming platform - although could just be a continuation of the drop that occurred after the company announced the previous day that it was creating millions more shares.

Never mind…I conflated two things.

Should change that headline to have a link with real time -11.00%+ with a bullet!

Starting to be like the Reichmark in the 1920’s - all mentions of the stock price need the hour and minute attached.

Who bought these shares?

I know there are some people who were gifted shares (okay, who received them as compensation for work or branding or whatever). But everyone else who owns these shares purchased them, right?

Is there data on who these folks are? Not anecdotes about individual purchasers, but data?

My suspicion is that, whereas most stocks are purchased primarily by financial companies, DJT stock is primarily purchased by individual investors, and shares are purchased in much smaller quantities than other stocks.

Is there data to back this up, or refute it or complicate it?

Two quick data points:

  • % Held by Insiders: 70.71%
  • % Held by Institutions 1.19%

SOURCE

ETA: couple more:

*Shares Short (3/28/2024): 5.87M
*Short Ratio (3/28/2024): 0.17
*Short % of Float (3/28/2024): 10.13%
*Short % of Shares Outstanding (3/28/2024): 4.29%

Thanks!

Am I right that “Insiders” means people who didn’t purchase the stock but received it as compensation?

And am I right in thinking that the remaining shares–28.10%–are owned by individuals?

How does that compare to other stocks?

Actually, here are some other stocks.

Microsoft

US Steel

Google

Home Depot

So, those DJT numbers look really weird, right?

Those established stocks are all held as part of index and other mutual funds.

And like 80%-90% of the “insiders” are Trump himself.

I’ll let others speak to the ‘how does DJT compare’ questions, but insiders:

“Insider” is a term describing a director or senior officer of a publicly-traded company, as well as any person or entity, that beneficially owns more than 10% of a company’s voting shares. For purposes of insider trading, the definition is expanded to include anyone who trades a company’s shares based on material nonpublic knowledge. Insiders have to comply with strict disclosure requirements with regard to the sale or purchase of the shares of their company.

ETA: to make comparisons, I’d suggest that it’s safer to stick with NASDAQ and look for companies with similar market capitalization. Again, though, I’m not a stock market expert. Others here know far more than I do on the subject.

This is interesting. The big D has already filed the paperwork to sell essentially all of his shares as soon as possible, which as of today is still the end of September.

Total number of shares Trump Media files for the sale of is more than triple the public float

Yikes! :grimacing:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240415171/djt-stock-tumbles-as-trump-and-many-others-file-for-the-sale-of-their-shares

TS is totally a con, but you chose a really ridiculous list of comparison stocks. Long established almost blue chips and start-ups who went public just a few months ago are utterly different things.

You’re comparing a watermelon to some blimps because they’re the same overall shape. That’s nuts.

The insider fraction is always high immediately post IPO/SPAC. But typically institutions are gobbling up the stock they can get, so pretty quickly they out weight the individuals and then they never look back. It takes a long time for the insider fraction to decline. Years.

In this case the institutions are giving it a near-total pass. Leaving the individuals to pick up the slack.

Bottom line: for this stage of the game, don’t look at the insider number. Just look at the institution vs individual numbers.

Which are still decidedly odd for TS vs other start-ups at a similar age.

Snark’s not called for here. I chose some companies that I knew would have publicly-traded stocks, not a list that I knew would be different. If you think there’s a better set of stocks to compare DJT to, by all means, provide it.

I read that as him getting permission in advance to do anything. IOW, getting a regulatory hurdle out of his way.

Not that he’s committing to dumping the whole pile, or even a single share, on Sep 30. But now he’s able to sell any amount on any date for any reason. And take the consequences.

If somehow some Russian holding company takes them all at a 50% mark-up over the highest price of the last year, we’ll all know what really happened.

Well, all of us will know except the trumpistas. They’ll still be sitting there slackjawed while the ticker price skyrockets but the next minute it’s down to half what is was that morning and is in freefall on the way to zero.

Show 'em how it’s done donnie!