It’s got to be a bad sign with your own wife uses a different platform:
“Writing this memoir has been a deeply and reflective journey for me. As a private person who has often been the subject of public scrutiny and misrepresentation, I feel a responsibility to clarify the facts,” the former first lady says in the video posted to her X account.
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As I understand it, there are basically four groups of people who own the stock.
The first is people like Trump who got it for free and who can’t sell it until later this month.
The second are people who bought it as a way to show fealty to the cult, and who don’t care at all if it loses money, because they didn’t buy it as a financial investment, but as a spiritual investment.
The third are people who bought it as a way to funnel money to Trump for political benefit. This group may or may not actually exist; but at least some of them see it as a straight up bribe.
The fourth group is people who bought it for the second or third reason, but who do actually care about its value, and who will be significantly harmed if the stock tanks.
Is this accurate?
If so, I wonder how these groups will respond as the date years when the first group can sell their stocks? Especially that fourth group: are they incentivized to sell their shares before Trump sells his? When they sell, the price will necessarily drop, making it less profitable for Trump. If they hold, and Trump sells first, then it’s less profitable for them.
Is this a case where there is a line to exit the sinking ship?
As I understand it there are quite a few people in the 2+4 group. Buy it as a show of fealty to Trump, but also expect that the value of their investment to grow dramatically because of their “faith” and will be significantly harmed if the stock goes to zero. Kind of like “tithing” to a church that follows prosperity theology.
Let’s say you own DJT and you want to sell it through your retail brokerage account. There are 2 methods:
You could also sell 100 shares at a limit price of $18.00, good until you cancel the order (or 60 days go by, depending upon your broker’s policy). On Wednesday, you could have found takers. But not on Thursday or Friday. Next week? Who knows? At any rate, there’s a line for that, insofar as people putting in the first offers at $18.00 take precedence over the later people offering that price. Those willing to sell at $17.99, a lower price, beat both groups.
So to answer your question, if you want to sell DJT you will be able to, up until trading is suspended. But the price might crash. If it crashes hard enough, the exchange suspends trading. Anyway, mostly speaking, there’s no line provided you are willing to accept what someone is willing to buy the stock at, which might be very low.
I think there is another group as well. Belief in Trump is irrelevant to them but others believing in him is what they are betting on. They plan on getting in and out figuring that they can time plays on a stock that is likely to see some jumps up on a good Trump news cycle and then drop on a bad one. In out repeat. No interest in holding it long term, and they no it has no long term future value, but there’s currently few tulips to buy …
DJT reportedly went public in late March of this year, but when I look up their share price, I see activity going back to October 2021. What am I missing?
That was DWACs price.
The Greater Fool investors
“I had a small house of brokerage on Wall Street… many days no business come to my hut. But Jimmy has fear? A thousand times no.”
Agreed. Today’s NYT offers 2 other viable routes for bad actors who agree to publicly send funds to Trump:
Mr. Trump has some options. Selling shares to a single buyer, in a deal that’s announced after it’s completed, might limit the damage. He could also use the shares as collateral for a loan. Though he wouldn’t be selling, that could still pressure the stock.
So a Saudi or Russian cutout could buy a block of DJT from Trump. Or they could loan Trump money, using DJT as collateral. The 2nd seems problematic though: sweetheart loans are subject to regulation from various angles.
There aren’t enough rubes to absorb 9 figure sales. But there may be a sufficient number of bad actors. Trump could also sell them options I suppose - that’s probably the best way. You can design derivatives to mimic the underlying security itself, and bamboozling the faithful requires few mirrors and little smoke.
OBTW: Other DJT investors are poised to sell on the same date. I forecast a pre-election bloodbath - even money confident.
I’m not confident enough to speculate with real money (low load index funds all the way baby!), but back on the start of April, I noted that for $2,252 I could buy the option to sell 100 shares of DJT:US for $4,000 up until October, and so I put that date on my calendar to see whether it would have been a worthwhile investment. If the price is lower than $17.58 I win get money if its more than that I lose money. Of course the real test would be to compare it to the S&P500, which is going to be hard to beat. We’ll see what happens when Sept 19 rolls around.
Talk is cheap, and I haven’t bought options. Smart money knows everything I do (and more). I wonder what call options look like now.
Yes, and I’m nothing if not Cheap.
But its been fun to watch, like following a fantasy football team even if you know you’d be a lousy general manager.
The last couple of up days have made me a little grumpy, but given tonight’s debate performance I figure on looking forward to a nice big drop first thing when trading opens in the morning.
Posting this now so I can appear as clairvoyant as an astronomer predicting the sun rising in the East.
Effect of the debate and the Taylor Swift endorsement:
15.80 -2.83 (-15.19%)
Pre-Market: 6:03AM EDT
Practically speaking, I thought there was a floor to the value. With the amount of cash DJT has on hand and their lack of debts, if they company were to dissolve they’d be able to pay out X amount of money per share. Like $1.70 or something.
Down 14% at opening today. Currently at $15.99
If you (or other investors really) belieive that cash on the books is a real number. And if you/they believe that as the jig becomes up it won’t disappear into some offshore bank. And if you believe the legit and “legit” expenses of winding up the company won’t spend a bunch of it, with most of that to inflated-price intermediaries untraceably tied back to the insiders.
This is the kind of crap investors people need to worry about in so-called “shit-hole countries” where financial regulation is almost non-existent, and enforcement thereof is non-existent.
trump’s main goal of course is to convert the USA into one of those shit-hole countries. And he may well succeed.
Now down 17%:
The share price of Trump Media plunged more than 17% on Wednesday morning, a day after its majority shareholder Donald Trump delivered a widely panned presidential debate performance against Vice President Kamala Harris.
It is entertaining to see how reactive to election sentiments this stock is. Yesterday a good poll, just one, pushed it up. Today Harris’s playing him in the debate and flush. I wonder how a graph correlating change in the election betting markets and the stock price would look but I suspect they march nearly lockstep.
Obviously flooding sales by insiders will alter that correlation as they can.