# How close are we to a shooting war? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 20, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462 "2016-09-20T20:17:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/41 "2016-09-21T02:30:04Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > If he tries, he’ll fail. Let’s face it, Trump’s incompetent - even if he has a master plan, he’s not going to go anywhere with it. And his followers are not movers and shakers. The danger with Trump is that he’ll accidentally stumble into a war or depression. Well, I daresay he might be prone to follow the advice of anyone who flatters him enough, hence people with smooth manners and hidden agendas will have a field day. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/42 "2016-09-21T03:07:12Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > . . . the citizen army has been replaced by professional soldiers (and when has a professional military ever NOT developed self-interests?). . . . I think this is wrong, although subtly wrong. We don’t have a military “class.” Our servicemembers are part of the society they come from…and the society they return to when the retire or muster out. They have homes in the same communities as everyone else. Their kids go to the same schools as the neighbor kids, and military spouses shop at the same shopping centers as their neighbors. We don’t so much have a “professional military” as we have a “revolving door” military. Servicemembers enlist, get training and education, then leave for jobs in private industry. There aren’t all that many “lifers.” Thus, our military doesn’t have a “self interest” in the way that ancient militaries did. The typical soldier or sailor doesn’t really care if the army is increased by a division or by a carrier, and, in fact, might very well be against it, because he or she is a tax-payer too. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/43 "2016-09-21T03:18:57Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > For all the talk of red and blue states, aren’t they actually all purple states that just tepidly lean in one direction? well, some less tepidly than others, but yeah, basically. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/44 "2016-09-21T03:27:44Z")
If The Donald tries to roll back civil rights fifty years, We the People will just ignore him. He’s running for President, not the King. There’s a difference. Revolution will come when the Gubberment tries to take rights away, and our current Congress couldn’t legislate itself out of a used condom right now. Everybody’s fine right now, everyone’s happy, some punches get thrown on Friday night but basically things are peaceful throughout the land. We have some trouble spots and we always will, nothing to get alarmed about. … but keep your gun loaded just in case … ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/45 "2016-09-21T03:30:40Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > But until then, any armed insurrection will be put down by those law enforcement types and (if need be) those military types, and they’re better trained, funded and organized than any number of loudmouthed malcontent sovereign/freemen/militia wannabes. I don’t have nearly the faith you do in LEOs putting down a rebellion. Just look at the mess they made of the Dorner manhunt, and that guy published a manifesto on Facebook letting them know exactly who he was and who he was after. Not that we’re anywhere near this point, but if there were 1,000 Dorners, or 10,000, LEOs would be more likely to be bunkered down and hiding their uniforms and cars off-duty than putting anything down. Remember the PA police shooter? It took them like six weeks to find the guy, and he crashed his jeep and abandoned it with his ID and matching shell casings in it. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/46 "2016-09-21T03:32:01Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > … but keep your gun loaded just in case … I suspect many / most of the people on this board don’t own a gun. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/47 "2016-09-21T03:40:13Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I suspect many / most of the people on this board don’t own a gun. Don’t worry a bit … there’s 100,000,000 people who do … ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/48 "2016-09-21T04:05:32Z")
We are nowhere near a civil war. What would be the military objective of the “rebels”? If it were anything worthy of the words “civil war”, it would gain the attention of the US military, which is firmly on the side of the feds throughout the land. Any shootin’ rebellion is simply going to get clobbered. It’s hopeless. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/49 "2016-09-21T04:16:03Z")
> [@cuauhtemoc](#): > > ISo how can we possibly get out of this alive? How long can this stalemate last, and what happens if/when it falls apart? Absolutely nothing is going to happen. Your average white-national militiaman is full of bluster until he meets a US Army brigade. It went poorly in 1861, and now we have attack helicopters. I honestly wish this “well-regulated militia” had the courage to fire a shot in anger so we could all see these incompetent ramshackle traitors for what they are, but it ain’t gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/50 "2016-09-21T04:39:58Z")
There wasn’t a shooting war in 1957, when Eisenhower had troops move in on Arkansas. That was a hell of a lot more contentious than anything happening today, or anything Trump is at all likely to do. We’ve been through so much worse. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/51 "2016-09-21T05:17:09Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Don’t worry a bit … there’s 100,000,000 people who do … I know, and they’re mostly on my side 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/52 "2016-09-21T07:54:48Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Sure, he’s going to appoint horrible horrible judges, and he’s going to appoint horrible horrible cabinet members, and he’s going to take the country in a horrible horrible direction. And that’s the part that will undo the gains of 1960s. It doesn’t matter whether he wants to do it or not. Put two conservatives on the court, and a lot of landmark decisions that actually made America great get demolished. I don’t lament the lack of a shooting war, but I do lament the apathy of the people. We don’t actually need guns to accomplish what we need to accomplish. We just need the apathetic people to get off their couches and help. And if they’d stop letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/53 "2016-09-21T09:20:10Z")
The gains of the 60s were largely due to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The SCOTUS is not going to declare that legislation unconstitutional. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/54 "2016-09-21T09:57:10Z")
> [@cuauhtemoc](#): > > Also, a lot of you are saying that our standard of living is too high for large masses of people to risk throwing it all away in a civil war. > > But very few Americans alive today have experienced anything like dire need. That’s not an accident - during the Great Recession even in red states public aid was quietly expanded to help keep the masses from hurting too badly. That’s why we have food stamps. Well, that and subsidizing the agricultural industry but the side effect of keeping the poor fed is still very useful. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/55 "2016-09-21T10:34:30Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Trump doesn’t have any desire to roll back the progress of the 60s. > > Lots of people are going to be disappointed if Trump ever becomes president. He’s not interested in policy, he’s interested in appearance. He’s a perfect example of the “all talk” people mentioned earlier. He doesn’t want to accomplish anything except have everybody in the country talking about Donald Trump. Sure, he’s going to appoint horrible horrible judges, and he’s going to appoint horrible horrible cabinet members, and he’s going to take the country in a horrible horrible direction. But that’s not because he wants to accomplish anything in particular, or take the country in any particular direction. Trump’s horrible actions will be in the name of narcissism, vanity, greed, ego, and pride, not ideology. Donald Trump’s survival as president – perhaps his ability to avoid impeachment – will depend on his rewarding certain political elements, such as those who have given him support. The religious right, the alt-right, the Norquist republicans…they’re not supporting him because they like Donald Trump. They like what he can do for their cause. And he can do quite a lot. And if elected, he will. He won’t be impacted by any of it, so what the hell does he care? > [@Lemur866](#): > > As for a right-wing insurrection, how’s that going to work? > > These sorts of things only work when elements of the establishment turn a blind eye. The Klan only worked because everyone knew who was in the Klan, and even if the Sheriffs and the Judges and the Chamber of Commerce people weren’t Klan members, they allowed the Klan to operate with impunity. Let’s say some firebrand mayor or sheriff gets elected in a southern city. Let’s say that some cities decide they don’t want to have integrated schools anymore. Let’s say that apartment complex owners decide they’re not going to rent to black renters anymore and they essentially dare the government to stop them. What if Trump’s administration appoints justices who have different interpretations of equal protection under the law? It is a constitutional concept but it is still one that is largely enforced through federal law and court doctrine – which can be changed. Perhaps more likely is having outspoken racists take to radio and television and normalizing racism as just “free speech.” The real danger as I see it is moving the bar on what is considered outrageous. For a good two generations now, we’ve viewed racism as socially unacceptable. Trump gives racists a platform not seen in generations, and we could risk the normalization of racism, which would lead to all sorts of problems. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/56 "2016-09-21T10:44:30Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The gains of the 60s were largely due to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The SCOTUS is not going to declare that legislation unconstitutional. Justice Scalia called the Voting Rights Act of 1965 a perpetuation of racial entitlement. What makes you think that one or two activist justices wouldn’t have a similarly jaundiced view of the Civil Rights Act of 1964? The fallacy we commit is in assuming that precedents are permanent – they are not. They are established and overwritten by people separated by generations and their experiences. The people who enacted the civil rights acts were alive to witness the need for these acts. Many of those who are alive now largely do not appreciate the need for their continued existence. Just like many Germans and Austrians alive today don’t see the raw danger of AfP and other right wing groups. “Surely we wouldn’t let that happen” – oh but we would, too. I’m hopeful that democrats take the senate and that we don’t have that problem, but at the same time, we’ll only have more congressional and political paralysis, which just delays our inevitable crisis. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/57 "2016-09-21T11:00:46Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > If it were anything worthy of the words “civil war”, it would gain the attention of the US military, which is firmly on the side of the feds throughout the land. Depends on if who the “feds” are is clear. The scenario of the President unilaterally firing loads of judges mentioned above, for instance, perhaps opposed by Congress and the Supremes (to make it real interesting, one house supports the Pres and the other opposes.) ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/58 "2016-09-21T13:10:06Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > It won’t, once NASCAR season starts. Be very afraid. Fans are leaving NASCAR in droves (at least according to this year’s TV numbers). ---
**Author:** ![UberArchetype](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/2bfe46/32.png) [@UberArchetype](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UberArchetype)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/59 "2016-09-21T14:08:31Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > …the citizen army has been replaced by professional soldiers\: > [@Trinopus](#): > > We don’t so much have a “professional military” as we have a “revolving door” military. Apparently some of you people have never heard of the National Guard. It comprises a significant portion of our military power, both in terms of manpower and active affiliate unit designations. Just FYI. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462/60 "2016-09-21T14:44:50Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I think this is wrong, although subtly wrong. We don’t have a military “class.” Our servicemembers are part of the society they come from…and the society they return You’re probably right, although articles like [this one](http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-warrior-main-20150524-story.html) make me wonder if that will always be true. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-are-we-to-a-shooting-war/766462.md?page=4)