# How close will the election be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2008, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836 "2008-06-13T18:18:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/41 "2008-06-14T18:22:54Z")
The electoral process is a race to the middle. Suppression of what is controversial or unpopular will follow. After a while they will look distressingly alike as they take poll after poll and polish their issues to make them more appear more mainstream. Then of course the swiftboating and downright flagrant abuses will sway a few ,who were waiting for an excuse to be swayed. Sadly it will get closer and closer. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/42 "2008-06-14T19:11:47Z")
[QUOTE=Frylock] This is beside the point. The point of the post was that futures markets and betting pools can be unreliable, in at least some cases. -FrL- [/QUOTE] Unless the betting pools and markets gave Hillary a 100% chance of being the nominee, then you can hardly say they were “unreliable.” All they give you are the odds at any particular point in time. According to the graph, Obama futures were under 10 in late 2007. That may have been an entirely accurate assessment of his chances of winning the 2008 election at that time. According to some of the indicators, McCain has about a 40% chance of winning. Of course that doesn’t mean he’ll automatically lose. He’s doing a hell of a lot better than Da’Tara before the Belmont, who went off at 38-1. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/43 "2008-06-14T19:38:51Z")
[QUOTE=Colibri] Unless the betting pools and markets gave Hillary a 100% chance of being the nominee, then you can hardly say they were “unreliable.” [/quote] Person 1: “I’d bet on Obama, since the bookies favor him.” Person 2: “But the bookies favored Clinton a few months ago.” Person 3: “That was the reasonable expectation a few months ago.” My only point is that 3’s comment above is not responsive to 2’s point. 2 surely expects everyone understands that it was reasonable to think Clinton would win a few months ago. That’s part of his very point. He’s arguing (I take it) that “reasonable expectations” are still not very high quality expectations at this stage in the game. That last is in itself is a claim which could do with some scrutiny. But person 3’s comment above, by missing 2’s point, fails to aim scrutiny at the claim that should be scrutinized. -FrL- ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/44 "2008-06-14T20:31:26Z")
I think it all comes down to turnout. Obama’s going to get people voting with his 50 state routine. No question, right? Will he get enough to change expectations? Will the Republicans stay home in droves, as the Evangelists aren’t pleased by McCain? If both happen, we could see a blowout like nothing you imagine. Doubt that’ll happen, but I wanted to point out ‘probability to vote’ is a interesting thing we’re not examining here. It _shouldn’t_ be the same as last election. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/45 "2008-06-14T20:41:29Z")
[QUOTE=zoo] I m calling a 55-60% popular vote win for Obama and 290 to 310 EV’s. [/QUOTE] A Presidential candidate who won 60% of the popular vote would win almost all the electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![prleone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b2d939/32.png) [@prleone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/prleone)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/46 "2008-06-14T21:12:38Z")
Not close at all. McCain by a landslide. I am voting for Obama. Half of you who say the same will be pulling the McCain lever. Fear of terrorists, fear of interest rates and the biggest American fear– CHANGE-- always prevails. That other Dem lost for the same reasons. What was his name again? Religion and wives will put Obama’s nails in the coffin. The whole “I don’t like his wife” thing and “what a weird pastor” is stupid. The only candidate I could ever trust is someone ummarried who says, “What the heck is a spiritual advisor anyway?” If you’re out there, please run next time. ---
**Author:** ![zoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/71c47a/32.png) [@zoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoo)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/47 "2008-06-14T21:24:05Z")
[QUOTE=RickJay] A Presidential candidate who won 60% of the popular vote would win almost all the electoral votes. [/QUOTE] You may be right, but I can envision a scenario where Obama wins big states with big popular margins and close races everywhere else. I believe the 50 state strategy will close the gap in many of the deep red states. The way this race is going anything can happen. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2008, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/48 "2008-06-14T23:10:37Z")
[QUOTE=prleone] Not close at all. McCain by a landslide. [/quote] Obama will win 338 - 200. (Great to see another post from you!) ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/49 "2008-06-15T00:03:45Z")
Obama’s Fellowship Program is one of the reasons this election won’t even be close. > [@](#): > > [**Obama campaign begins massive Florida mobilization this weekend**](http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/06/obama_campaign_begins_massive_florida_mobilization_this_weekend_.html) > > They’re coming from all over the country, lured by their faith in Barack Obama, to spend a weekend in Tamarac, then six weeks bringing the Obama message to Floridians. > > It’s part of a massive mobilizing of volunteers for Obama’s campaign throughout the nation. The 3,600 volunteers, called “fellows” by the campaign, include 400 in the key battleground state of Florida. > > They’re unpaid, save for food and gas stipends for some, and they covered their own expenses to travel to the two-and-a-half days of training that begins today. About two-thirds will return home after training; they get to sleep in their own beds. Hundreds will spend the next six weeks in South Florida and other parts of the state, working from early morning until late at night, sleeping in spare bedrooms in the homes of local Democrats donating the space. > > “It makes you speechless, the level of commitment of these people,” said County Commissioner Stacy Ritter, Broward chairwoman of Obama for America. “I’ve never seen this level of excitement in a presidential campaign - or any campaign - ever.” > > –more– > [@](#): > > [**Fellows Training: On the Ground in Ohio**](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gG5MkF) > > In Columbus, Ohio, one spot for the Obama Organizing Fellows training, over 150 people are gathering to learn about the Obama campaign and how to organize communities this weekend. Various Ohio campaign staff are leading the training today. > > (check out the packed hall in the linked images) > [@](#): > > [\*\* Fellows Training: What it Means to be an Organizer\*\*](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gG5Ms4) > > . . .Organizing requires three things:[ul][li]Leadership that respects and empowers others[/li][li]Building relationships, community and commitement around that leadership[/li][li]A strategy to puts that community to work to win, with clear set goals and flexible tactics[/ul]“Respect, Empower, Include” is the mantra for our campaign and our organizing. We must live this manta on a daily basis. We must be respectful of our co-workers and our supporters; of our own daily projects; of the voters in the state we work; of our opponent and his supporters. Respecting, empowering, and including supporters in our campaign in a meaningful way requires a commitment to volunteer leadership development, training, and accountability.[/li] > . . . Is John McCain doing _anything_ even remotely like this? Has any candidate _ever_? It’s a stunning endeavor, and I believe it will have stunning and overwhelming results. _“We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can withstand the power of millions of voices calling for change.”_ – [Barack Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post_group/ObamaHQ/CGTN) ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/50 "2008-06-15T00:15:35Z")
Obama 330 McCain 208 I.e. not close. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/51 "2008-06-15T01:04:35Z")
One thing to keep in mind is that the razor-thin results of the last two presidential elections were highly anomalous. These things tend to not be very close (at least from an EV perspective). Now, figuring out who will be the winner is more difficult, I can see plausible arguments and reasonable series of events that could lead to a large electoral college win for either candidate. I’d like to think that the large swing in party ID gives Obama some inherent advantage, but he quite obviously has some inherent disadvantages of his own to overcome. So, my prediction - not close. But I’m not predicting a winner. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/52 "2008-06-15T01:48:48Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Obama’s Fellowship Program is one of the reasons this election won’t even be close. Is John McCain doing _anything_ even remotely like this? Has any candidate _ever_? It’s a stunning endeavor, and I believe it will have stunning and overwhelming results. _“We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can withstand the power of millions of voices calling for change.”_ – [Barack Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post_group/ObamaHQ/CGTN) [/QUOTE] Has any other candidate for President begun his public life as a community organizer, or been immersed in that role as such a central part of his history and experience? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/53 "2008-06-15T02:05:30Z")
I’ve been giving Obama a win of about 8 percentage points, and I just mapped out some guesses at [270towin.com](http://270towin.com). My projection gave him 304 electoral votes to 234 for McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/54 "2008-06-15T02:06:07Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Has any other candidate for President begun his public life as a community organizer, or been immersed in that role as such a central part of his history and experience? [/QUOTE] Nope. And it’s incredible how relevant that experience is to this election process, and, in my opinion, much of the role of President of the United States. Incredible, too, how it’s being dismissed by some [as no more relevant than being a teenage lifeguard](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9903509&postcount=138). ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/55 "2008-06-15T02:44:28Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] Incredible, too, how it’s being dismissed by some [as no more relevant than being a teenage lifeguard](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9903509&postcount=138). [/QUOTE] Well, just by Mr. Moto. I think most people who honestly look into what Obama accomplished will agree it’s pretty significant, and a gauge as to the potential effectiveness of his presidency. I predict also that Obama will make a better president than a senator (whereas, I’d say the opposite about Clinton or McCain.) ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/56 "2008-06-15T02:58:03Z")
[QUOTE=brazil84] My WAG is that McCain slaughters Obama and liberals moan for years about closet racism among American whites. [/QUOTE] Something like that except it won’t be a slaughter–it’ll be a moderate EV victory for McCain. And yup!! There will be plenty of retroactive bitching from Democrats about racism among American whites but the fact that they can’t see that racism NOW and will only realize it AFTER the election is indicative of the naivete and wishful-thinking among some liberals that helps make the Democratic Party always appear like totally shocked, deer-in-the-headlights caught completely unaware by the modern political realities in the USA. “But… but… but… how were we to know that some Democrats would never vote for a black man? We saw no indications of any racism at all in America until after the election! If only we could somehow have realized this BEFORE the election!” ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/57 "2008-06-15T03:04:48Z")
[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I] “But… but… but… how were we to know that some Democrats would never vote for a black man? We saw no indications of any racism at all in America until after the election! If only we could somehow have realized this BEFORE the election!” [/QUOTE] Nice job whacking over that strawman. Hope you’re proud of that little rhetorical accomplishment. Actually, if you’d paid attention, you’d have noticed that the question of whether Obama can overcome latent racism in the U.S. has been raised repeatedly, including by his supporters, and certainly not just on the SDMB. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/58 "2008-06-15T03:06:09Z")
Meanwhile, in real life, flooding overwhelms the Midwest. McCain issues a statement: “Our thoughts and prayers go out to all those impacted by the flooding throughout the Midwest. Cindy and I would like to extend our sympathies to all those who have lost loved ones, and stand ready to help those in the Midwest to recover and rebuild.” His campaign website has an unobtrusive link to the statement, buried in the lower left corner. Obama’s website homepage opens to a large graphic + link: “Your help is urgently needed for victims of the Midwest flood”, with the link below to “Learn More” and the major story below that is: “Obama and Volunteers Pitch in with Flood Relief and Prevention”: > [@](#): > > Today, Barack travelled to Quincy, Illinois to inspect the flood-damaged area and join grassroots volunteers in loading sandbags to help prevent further flooding. > > The Mississippi River is expected to crest in Quincy on Monday or Tuesday. If you’re in the Quincy area, the sandbagging operation is going on until 6:00 pm today and throughout the weekend. Local officials have put out a public call for all volunteers who are able to help. If you can assist, please [travel to the Oakley-Lindsey Civic Center in Quincy this weekend.](http://my.barackobama.com/quincydirections) > > For those of from elsewhere in the country who want to pitch in, [please visit the Red Cross website to learn how you can help.](http://www.redcross.org/) > > Thanks to all of you who have stepped up and lent a hand to your neighbors and fellow Americans. This campaign is more than about winning an election, it’s about building a movement and rekindling the sense that we are all our brothers’ keepers – that we are all in this together. The links in the quote are in the original. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/59 "2008-06-15T03:24:07Z")
[QUOTE=Knorf] Nice job whacking over that strawman. Hope you’re proud of that little rhetorical accomplishment. Actually, if you’d paid attention, you’d have noticed that the question of whether Obama can overcome latent racism in the U.S. has been raised repeatedly, including by his supporters, and certainly not just on the SDMB. [/QUOTE] On another message board someone trotted out the same old ‘Obama is a Muslim, blahblahblah’ stuff. I had to call her on it. (Oh, dopey me!) Here’s what she wrote back: > [@](#): > > Voting for OBama is… putting the most hateful, race mongering people in America in charge of our government. Everything OBama is connected to screams Anti-Americanism. Vote for him if that the sort of things that you value. I worry that the latent racists will pay attention to the blatant ones. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2008, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836/60 "2008-06-15T03:26:55Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Meanwhile, in real life, flooding overwhelms the Midwest. . . . > [@](#): > > Today, Barack travelled to Quincy, Illinois to inspect the flood-damaged area and join grassroots volunteers in loading sandbags to help prevent further flooding. > > . . . [/QUOTE] And he didn’t just join them for coffee, he put on work gloves, grabbed a shovel and filled sandbags right alongside the rest of the workers. He puts his money where his mouth is and inspires others to do the same; something we desperately need from our leaders in this country. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-close-will-the-election-be/452836.md?page=4)