I totally agree with you as a ‘pure’ matter of statistics, but … (at the risk of veering OT):
I live in one of those towns that constantly congratulates itself for (anything) having some of the safest drivers in the country.
But it ain’t so.
If you ride a bicycle or a motorcycle, or drive a tall vehicle (allowing you to see what other drivers are doing), the % of distracted drivers is insane.
What this forces is the Better Drivers Among Us to be increasingly more vigilant and maintain quick reflexes.
Which may imply that the average driver is okay, but it probably also implies a high standard deviation from the mean.
Also (and maybe more on-topic), there’s a definitional thing here. An “average” driver may be effectively competent for normal driving circumstances.
But I’m reminded of a colleague who was basically in charge of FedEx’s air fleet. He once remarked that pilots – 90% of the time – have the easiest job in the world. What makes or breaks them is that other 10%.
When something out of the purely ordinary, but far from rare, happens, no end of driver reacts inappropriately. There’s a pothole, the car next to them is drifting, a tire blows out, inclement weather/poor traction … etc., etc., etc.
That’s where experience, training, equipment, judgment, physiology, and other factors come into play.
To bring it back to the topic, it’s not that hard to be decent at the firing range. Paper targets don’t shoot back 